Panthers-Maple Leafs Game 7 winner in East 2nd Round debated by NHL.com staff

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers play Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Second Round at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto on Sunday (7:30 p.m. ET; CBC, TVAS, SN, TNT, truTV, MAX).

It’s been a series of streaks so far; the Maple Leafs won the first two games at home to take early control of the best-of-7 series. Florida, the defending Stanley Cup champion, returned serve at home and then won a third straight in Game 5 at Toronto.

But the Maple Leafs avoided elimination on the road in Game 6 with a 2-0 win on Friday.

Now, it’s a winner-advances showdown in Toronto.

The victor plays the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final. Carolina defeated the Washington Capitals in five games.

The Maple Leafs are 12-15 in Game 7 in their history (including 7-3 at home), but have lost six in a row, all in the first round. They haven’t won a Game 7 since 2004, against the Ottawa Senators.

The Panthers are 3-1 in Game 7, including 2-0 on the road. They defeated the Edmonton Oilers 2-1 in Game 7 at home last season to win the Stanley Cup.

So, who will win this Game 7? We asked a panel of NHL.com staffers, and here are their answers:

Florida Panthers

The benefit of the doubt goes to the defending Stanley Cup champions and to coach Paul Maurice, who is 5-0 in Game 7s. Florida has proven it. Toronto needs to prove it. At talented as the Maple Leafs might be, as gutsy as their 2-0 win in Game 6 might have been, how can you pick them instead of the Panthers at this point? The Maple Leafs didn’t look themselves in their previous game under pressure on home ice, a 6-1 loss in Game 5. This core has never advanced past the second round. The Panthers have won five straight series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and eight of their past nine. They’ve won two Game 7s since 2023, including against the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final last season after they blew a 3-0 series lead. That was gutsy. Give me Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and company, especially with the additions of Seth Jones and Brad Marchand. -- Nicholas J. Cotsonika, columnist

I picked the Panthers to win the series before it started, so I can’t change now. Beyond that, I think Florida’s Game 7 experience gives it an edge. The Panthers won a significant Game 7 each of the previous two seasons. The first was in the 2023 first round, when they knocked off the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Bruins, who set NHL records for wins (65) and points (135) with a 4-3 overtime victory in Game 7. Last season, they rebounded from three straight losses to defeat the Oilers 2-1 in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final to capture their first championship. The Panthers have also have the X-factor of Marchand, who they acquired in a trade with the Bruins prior to the Trade Deadline. Marchand was 4-0 in Game 7s against the Maple Leafs with the Bruins. -- Tom Gulitti, senior writer

Game 7 can be an intimidating go for most teams, but not for these Panthers; they won the biggest Game 7 of them all last June, albeit at home, holding on to beat the high-powered Oilers 2-1 in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. The year before, as Tom mentioned, they defeated one of the best teams in NHL history in a Game 7 on the road, in a hostile TD Garden. They have been here and done this before. Winners of eight of their past nine playoffs series, the Panthers have the most valuable asset on their side -- belief. Do the Maple Leafs believe? How can they? This collection of players has known nothing but the disappointment of falling short. The Panthers believe in each other, they believe in their goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky, and they believe in Maurice, who guided them to the promised land last season. Oh, by the way, Maurice is 5-0 in Game 7s. He’ll soon be 6-0. -- Shawn P. Roarke, senior director of editorial

Are the Maple Leafs different? That's been the question that has followed them all season. They've answered affirmatively along the way, including a Game 6 win against the Panthers after a subpar Game 5. So, yes, they're different. But the Panthers aren't different and that's why they'll win Game 7. They're not rattled. Probably like the Panthers, I found it hard to believe a team as good and as well coached as the Maple Leafs would lose three in a row in the playoffs. But to think Florida is going to lose two in a row twice in the same series? Sorry, I know better. Look for the Panthers’ clutch suspects to show up, like Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk and Bobrovsky. Look for Marchand to make a difference. The Panthers know how to win Game 7s. The Maple Leafs do not. Until they prove it, different won't mean better. -- Dan Rosen, senior writer

Toronto Maple Leafs

It has to be time, eventually, right? I say this is the year. This is the time. This is the team. Going into this series, I thought the Panthers had it in the bag -- they had looked so good against the Tampa Bay Lightning, so strong and focused -- but now I have my doubts. I’ve seen the Maple Leafs get to them, blocking shots and getting in the way, I’ve seen Auston Matthews push aside any mental demons or physical pains to force a Game 6. And I see the stats that goalie Joseph Woll Woll has put up in elimination games -- 4-1 record, 1.13 goals-against average and .957 save percentage -- including a shutout of the Panthers when they had the chance to close out the Maple Leafs in Game 6. To me, it all adds up to a trip to the conference final for the Maple Leafs, clinching it on home ice, in front of fans that demanded more of them in a lackluster Game 5 performance. On Sunday, I believe they’ll get what they asked for. -- Amalie Benjamin, senior writer

I’m taking the Maple Leafs here. Yeah, I know, I picked Florida to advance in this round, but Toronto’s win Friday was huge. The Maple Leafs could’ve gone quietly into the night after the Panthers defeated them 6-1 in Toronto on Wednesday, a devastating loss that saw some fans leave early and/or toss their jerseys on the ice. But the Maple Leafs shook it off and made this a one-game series. All trends, streaks, etc., change eventually. It’s time for Toronto to break through and reach the conference final for the first time since 2002. -- Tracey Myers, staff writer

It would be easy to see the Maple Leafs win Game 6 on the road to the Panthers just to lose Game 7 at home and break the hearts of their fans again. Toronto hasn’t hoisted the Stanley Cup since 1967. This time, however, I believe it pulls out the unlikely comeback after a lopsided 6-1 loss in Game 5 left the team for dead in the eyes of many. The Maple Leafs have enough talent to get to the conference final, and that talent will come through for the Maple Leafs’ biggest win in decades. Matthews scored his first goal in seven games to help win Game 6, and goal-scorers tend to net them in bunches. If Matthews can have another big game, the rest of the Maple Leafs will follow. -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer

I’ve been covering the Maple Leafs for more than two decades, and the bitterness I saw and felt from the home crowd during Game 5 was unparalleled. The venom was fueled not so much by Toronto’s lack of execution in the 6-1 loss, but rather by the perception of a lack of effort from a skilled Maple Leafs team. Not only was it the first time I heard the home fans boo Matthews directly, but one of them tossed a No. 34 jersey onto the ice. It was, in a nutshell, “Leafian” -- a term used by former Maple Leaf player-turned-broadcaster Jeff O’Neill to describe the way this franchise underachieves at a time and in ways that crushes the collective hearts of its loyal fan base the most. It set the stage for what an entire city expected to be a season-ending loss in Game 6. Except it wasn’t. Instead, Toronto showed heart and grit to force a Game 7 and underscoring the notion that there is a different vibe under first-year coach Craig Berube. Hey, maybe they go “Leafian” again in Game 7, to no one’s surprise. But I’m putting aside my cynicism and picking Toronto, as much because of Berube’s influence as anything else. -- Mike Zeisberger, staff writer