NHL EDGE stats: Sabres show signs of potential turnaround

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the underlying metrics of the Buffalo Sabres this season.

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The Buffalo Sabres, who fired general manager Kevyn Adams on Monday and replaced him with Jarmo Kekäläinen, have underlying metrics that suggest they could improve in the coming months of the season.

The Sabres, who have the longest active Stanley Cup Playoff drought in the NHL (14 seasons, last appearance: 2011), are in the midst of their first three-game winning streak of the season. That said, Buffalo has spent the second-most time trailing this season (791:43) ahead of only the Nashville Predators (812:49).

The Sabres, with longtime coach Lindy Ruff rejoining the franchise in his second tenure, led the NHL in first-period goals (92) and were tied for the best 5-on-5 shooting percentage (10.6) last season but still missed the postseason. This season, Buffalo has remained an inconsistent team but is only six points behind the Eastern Conference wild-card spots at the time of the GM change.

Buffalo, which had the No. 1 pick in the NHL Draft in both 2018 (selected Rasmus Dahlin) and 2021 (selected Owen Power), has made significant trades in recent seasons involving big-name players like Jack Eichel (to Vegas Golden Knights), Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour (to Florida Panthers in separate deals) and JJ Peterka (to Utah Mammoth). While some current Sabres players involved in those trades have had productive tenures (e.g. Alex Tuch, Josh Doan), Eichel, Reinhart and Montour have each won the Stanley Cup with their new teams.

Here are three underlying storylines surrounding the Sabres, identifying either areas of improvement from the current roster or to address leading up to the NHL Trade Deadline on March 6:

1. Strong shooting metrics of Thompson, other individual skaters

The Sabres rank in the top 10 in both average shot speed (59.57 mph; seventh) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (817; eighth); they are one of four teams in the top 10 of each category, joining the Colorado Avalanche, New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators.

Buffalo also ranks highly in both midrange shots on goal (269; seventh) and midrange goals (34; sixth) this season. Rasmus Dahlin, the Sabres’ best all-around player, ranks highly among defensemen in midrange shots on goal (28; 99th percentile; tied for fourth at position), hardest shot (96.17 mph; 92nd percentile) and offensive zone time percentage (45.6; 92nd percentile).

Forward Tage Thompson, who leads Buffalo in goals (16), points (29 in 32 games) and shots on goal (117), is an EDGE stats shooting standout who ranks in the 90th percentile or higher among forwards in the following categories:

• Hardest shot: 97.94 mph (99th percentile; fifth among forwards)
• Average shot speed: 65.54 (97th percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 32 (92nd percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 45 (99th percentile; sixth among forwards)
• Long-range shots on goal: 19 (99th percentile; fourth among forwards)
• Midrange goals: 7 (97th percentile)
• Long-range goals: 2 (98th percentile; tied for fifth among forwards)

Doan, acquired as part of the return in the Peterka trade, ranks fourth in the entire NHL in high-danger shots on goal (51) this season. Center Josh Norris, who has been limited by injuries this season, is tied for eighth in the NHL in points per game (1.33; eight in six games) among those to play at least five games this season and also among the forward leaders in offensive zone time percentage (49.3; 99th percentile).

2. Goaltending

Buffalo’s goaltending is tied for seventh worst in 5-on-5 save percentage (.897) and 11th worst in team save percentage overall (.886) with the trio of Alex Lyon, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Colten Ellis. Lyon had an encouraging performance on the Sabres’ most-recent road trip, winning three straight games with a combined .925 save percentage in the span.

Lyon has stopped 96 of 98 long-range shots faced this season (.980 long-range save percentage) but is close to the League averages in both midrange and high-danger save percentages. Last season, Lyon was tied for 10th in the NHL in midrange save percentage (.906) with the Detroit Red Wings. Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Sabres are tied for the fifth-lowest average Projected Goal Rate (PGR) against (5.29 percent), indicating their defense is not allowing as many high-quality scoring chances compared to most of the League.

It’s worth noting Buffalo also has prospect Devon Levi playing for Rochester in the American Hockey League; Levi, who was acquired in the Reinhart trade, has a .919 save percentage in 85 career AHL games, highlighted by his 25 wins and seven shutouts in 42 games last season.

3. Hitting posts and crossbar

The Sabres had the most shot attempts that hit the post or crossbar in the NHL last season (128) and are tied for the second-most missed shots off the post or crossbar this season (47). Considering those attempts do not count as shots on goal, this trend impacts some of their surface-level stats and indicates how close the Sabres could be to a turnaround. Thompson, widely regarded as one of the League’s top goal-scorers, leads the NHL in posts or crossbars hit this season (11).

The Sabres rank in the middle of the pack in key categories like goals per game (3.00; 18th), shots on goal per game (28.3; tied for 15th) and power-play percentage (20.2; 14th) despite dealing with previous injuries to Norris and Zach Benson, a leave of absence for Dahlin and current injuries to Jiri Kulich, Michael Kesselring and Jason Zucker. Defensively, the Sabres rank third in penalty kill percentage (84.9) and tied for third in takeaways per 60 minutes this season (5.04), two other metrics indicating they could see better fortunes ahead in the standings.

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