Hart vs. Dostal goalie matchup in Western Conference 2nd Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, NHL.com charted 100 goals against each goaltender late in the regular season and all this season's playoff goals, to see what patterns emerge.

The Western Conference Second Round between the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks features two goalies who have already had to push past some ups and downs in the first round to help their teams advance. 

Golden Knights starter Carter Hart gave up four goals on 12 shots -- but was never pulled -- in a 3-2 loss to the Utah Mammoth in Game 2 loss before bouncing back to win three straight with a .902 save percentage and help Vegas take the best-of-7 series in six. 

Lukas Dostal of the Ducks was pulled early in Game 5 after giving up three goals on nine shots before bouncing back to eliminate the Edmonton Oilers in Game 6 despite finishing the series with an .874 save percentage.

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights 

Hart earned the start ahead of 2023 Stanley Cup winner Adin Hill by returning from a nearly three-month absence because of a lower body injury and finishing the season 6-0-0 with a 1.66 goals-against average and .930 save percentage under new coach John Tortorella. There were only 46 goals to track in the regular season, but another 18 in the first round against Utah continued to build the scouting report for a goalie in just his second run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (2019-20).

Blocker side off right wing: Hart holds edges well, moves efficiently, is patient off releases and plays a mostly contained positional game, so it's probably not surprising there aren't a lot of numbers that jump off the page on his goal chart. But the number of clean looks from distance that went in blocker side either coming down right wing or off passes from the right side, including Lawson Crouse's shot in Game 3 and Kailer Yamamoto's rush chance for Utah's only goal in Game 6, is a trend worth keeping an eye on. Hart tends to turn and pull off blocker shots rather than closing down and cutting them off in front of him that can open holes and net. It seems more prevalent on plays coming off the right side, and though it just be coincidence based on how chances presented themselves, Utah fired 20 more shots to Hart's blocker side than his glove side. 

Low glove: It's important to remember goal totals are not save percentages but the nine goals (20 percent) under Hart's glove in the regular season are almost double the tracked average of 10.4 percent. That number was down to two (11.1 percent) in the first round, and the above-mentioned trend towards the blocker may play a role, but his "fingers-up" glove position does make it harder to turn that pocket down over the pad, something that shooters are taught to look for. Mammoth forward Michael Carcone took advantage of with a one-timer under the glove from well outside the right face-off dot in Game 4. 

Against-the-grain: Five of the seven clean-look goals in the regular season came on shots against the grain, part of a larger trend across several chance types that includes the above-mentioned trend of shooting back to the blocker when skating down the right wing. The larger sample included a couple goals from higher in the zone including lateral carries across the middle, with 14 goals (30.4 percent) coming on shots back against the direction of play, well above the 18.4 percent tracked average. It continued in the first round against Utah, with six of the 18 goals (33.3 percent) involving an against-the-grain element. 

East-west and up: Forcing goalies to move from one side of the ice to the other is always a good way to increase scoring odds, but 14 of 46 regular season goals (30.3 percent) came on these types of lateral plays, well above the 22.1 percent average even if the four first round goals (22.2 percent) was closer to it. There were also nine (20 percent) on pop passes from below the goal line or low-high laterals from below the bottom of the face-off circles in the regular season, slightly above the 17.1 percent average. There weren't any definitive trends in those two beyond the need to elevate on the other end of those plays. Only three were finished along the ice because Hart usually gets a good push into those plays and seals the ice. Part of that comes with more conservative depth and good rotations back to the posts, which can also open a little more of the top of the net, but on odd-man rush chances he tends to go into a spread, or sprawl, as he comes across, especially to the glove side. That takes away the bottom half of the net but gives him almost no access to the top, something Carcone took advantage of.

Traffic and chaos: Though neither stood out as an issue in the regular season, four screen goals (22.2 percent) the first round and five more (27.7percent) from bounces off teammates in tight were each above-the-tracked averages, reenforcing the importance of the kind of traffic Anaheim used successfully against Edmonton goalie Connor Ingram. A lack of length on the second chances could lead to the Ducks trying to throw pucks off his pads, another tactic they employed successfully in the first round. 

Wide alone in tight: All three one-on-one goals in the regular season came off net drives across the top of crease, which left Hart pitched forward, reaching and unable to seal to the far post.

Lukas Dostal

Anaheim Ducks

In his second season as Ducks starter, Dostal set an NHL career high with his first 30-win season despite a career-low .888 save percentage. Looking at the goal trends and quality of chances, especially on plays across the middle of the ice, it's easy to understand why his save percentage dropped, but Anaheim did a good job tightening up against the Oilers, so now it's on Dostal to tighten up some of other goal trends from that series.

Transition chances: Dostal's tracked goals in the regular season included 57 percent off the rush and rush style chances off turnovers, well above the 35 percent average. That's one of the highest totals for the more 10,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017 and perhaps an indictment of the Ducks defending. Against the Oilers, that total dropped to just 30 percent, which also may be a combination of goalie and team. 

East-west down low: Part of that reduction in rush chances included a lot fewer goals on plays across the middle of the ice, which is a good way to create quality chances on any goalie. Dostal faced almost three such chances per game in the regular season, the third highest total in the NHL, and they accounted for a whopping 37 percent of the tracked goals, well above the 22.1 percent average. In fact, the number of east-west goals below the hash marks alone (20) almost reached that mark. In the first round, the Oilers only generated seven east-west chances across the middle, and just two below the hash marks, and scored one goal as a direct result (though two more bounced in off Ducks players). How much of that was Edmonton, how much was Anaheim's defending and how much was Dostal adjusting is hard to tell. The larger regular season sample suggested a tendency on right-to-left plays worth targeting. with many of the 15 goals outside the left skate off low lateral passes, and seven more goals there in the first round. A tendency to reach with the pad rather than push, combined with not having length as a smaller goalie, meant that a lot of those plays beat his coverage to the post even along the ice.

East-west up high: Similarly, the quality of many of these chances after open passes through the seams make this as much about the defense as the goalie, but the 14 cross-ice goals above the hash marks came with different trends including eight scored over the blocker compared to just one high glove. At times, it was simply about the quality of the chance but a tendency to not rotate moving right made it harder to gain angle on six of those eight. The only such play in the first round came high on the glove side. 

Bodies to the net: Dostal's 20 regular season screen goals were above the 15.1 percent tracked average and matched by four (20 percent) in the first round. He gets out to the edge of his crease on most of them but even at 6-foot-2 still doesn't have the height to look over most screens, especially if they are out from the top of the crease. So, the lower, wider save stance forces him to try to look around, and he doesn't have the size to cover top corners. Add in 22 broken play goals and bounces off teammates -- 16 in the regular season and six in the playoffs -- and getting traffic in front of Dostal in-zone is important. 

Second chances in tight: Rebounds weren't an issue in the regular season but were a factor on seven goals (35 percent) in the first round, well above the 15.2 percent tracked average. Some of that was the result of the increased traffic around the net, but a narrower butterfly means that quick, low shots on second chances have a chance.