Olympic gold medal favorites discussed by NHL.com staff

The start of the men's hockey tournament at the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026 is a month away.

The tournament, involving 12 nations and featuring NHL players for the first time since the 2014 Sochi Olympics, begins with two games Feb. 11.

Pool play, where each team will play the other three teams in its group, will run through Feb. 15. The three group winners and the best second-place team will get a bye into the quarterfinals; the other eight teams will play single-elimination games to determine the other four quarterfinalists. The gold medal game will be held Feb. 22.

Who will win the gold medal?

There's lots of competition. Finland is the reigning champion, but the 2022 Beijing Olympics were played without full NHL participation. Canada won gold in 2014. The United States won the 2025 IIHF World Championship.

We asked a panel of NHL.com writers to pick their favorite to win the 2026 tournament. Here, by country, are their answers.

Team Canada

Goaltending, goaltending, goaltending, but not in the way you think. When considering the top two contenders -- Team USA and Team Canada (I'm sorry, Team Sweden) -- paper says that the United States has the best options of any team in the tournament. But Jordan Binnington just keeps winning in big situations, whether that's the 2019 Stanley Cup Final with the St. Louis Blues or the 4 Nations Face-Off, and I think his semi-magical run in the biggest of spots will continue into the Olympics. Objectively, it doesn't make sense. His stats this season are well below what he's done in his NHL career and most of the other top-tier goalie candidates. But he made the difference in the 4 Nations, and I think he'll make the difference for Canada where it counts in the Olympics too. -- Amalie Benjamin, senior writer

How can you pick against Canada? The Canadians have won the past four best-on-best tournaments. They have Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and so many more stars. It's supposed to be time for the United States to win Olympic gold for the first time since 1980 in Lake Placid and a best-on-best tournament for the first time since the World Cup of Hockey in 1996, but that was what everybody said at the Olympics in 2010 and 2014, then at the 4 Nations. Canada is supposed to be vulnerable in goal, but everybody said that at 4 Nations too. Until somebody proves otherwise, this is simple. Canada is the favorite. -- Nicholas J. Cotsonika, columnist

Have you watched McDavid lately? Have you seen the recent highlight-reel goals that his dad Brian admits have wowed him? The ones when the Edmonton Oilers captain blows by and weaves around established NHL players as if they were beer leaguers? Like the first one he scored as part of a hat trick in a 6-2 win against the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, when he extended his point streak to 16 games (17 goals, 22 assists)? Back in 2017, McDavid told me, "The Olympics are the biggest stage there is." Now he's primed to play in his first one, joining MacKinnon (reigning NHL MVP), Cale Makar (reigning Norris Trophy winner) and Sidney Crosby, McDavid's boyhood idol and likely Hockey Hall of Famer. It'll be tough sledding, but I'm not going to bet against him. Not after seeing how he's leaving opponents in shambles right now. Man on a mission. -- Mike Zeisberger, staff writer

Team Finland

Is Finland the most talented team in the tournament? No. Even with Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov at their disposal (he's out after preseason surgery), they are the third-best team at best when it comes to talent. Talent, though, is only part of the puzzle in a quick tournament. You have to win three elimination games to claim gold. Nothing else matters. Finland has enough to players to score, they play good enough defense and goalie Juuse Saros, when he is on, can be a difference-maker. Plus, they will be the closest thing to a team among the Big Four. They know each other, they have played with each other in the national team setup for years, they know their roles, and they share a common vision. They will hit the ground running, without a feeling-out process and will use their relentless game to surprise more-talented opponents. -- Shawn P. Roarke, NHL.com senior director of editorial

Team Sweden

I think Sweden will benefit greatly from playing in the 4 Nations. Overtime losses to Canada and Finland and its win against the United States were learning experiences that will prepare the Swedish players and give them confidence for the Olympics. There's no Henrik Lundqvist to lean on in net, but the Minnesota Wild tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt is a pretty good 1-2 punch and the defense corps, led by Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning (assuming he's healthy in time, as expected), Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres, Gustav Forsling of the Panthers and Erik Karlsson of the Pittsburgh Penguins, is as good as any in the tournament. Leo Carlsson's emergence in his third season as a top-line center with the Anaheim Ducks adds another element offensively that Sweden didn't have at 4 Nations and could push it over the top in the Olympics. -- Tom Gulitti, senior writer

Canada and the United States may be the two favorites to win gold, but I believe Sweden presents a formidable challenge and will pull off a huge upset to win the tournament. Sweden is a team somewhat in transition and has injected youth into a veteran lineup, which I expect to make a big difference. If defense wins championships, then Sweden has to be considered a contender with all the talent on its blue line. Hedman, expected to return in time for the Olympics after having elbow surgery Dec. 15, headlines a skilled group also featuring Rasmus Andersson, Philip Broberg, Jonas Brodin, Karlsson Dahlin, Forsling and Oliver Ekman-Larsson that will provide experienced leadership. Sweden's goaltending will also be solid. If Sweden can score timely goals, I believe it will win Olympic gold for the first time since 2006. -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer

Team USA

I went back and forth on this one between the United States and Canada but, in the end, I'm picking Team USA. My biggest reason? I love the forward makeup. Sure, I think Jason Robertson should be there. It's hard to argue with what the Dallas Stars forward has done so far this season, but this is another example of how strong the United States is from the Tkachuk brothers (Matthew and Brady) to Kyle Connor and the two Jacks (Jack Eichel and Jack Hughes). If the United States needs a hero to score a big goal at a big time, they've got plenty from which to choose. The gold-medal drought that's existed for the U.S. since the 1980 "Miracle On Ice" ends in Milan. -- Tracey Myers, staff writer

Because the balance on the roster has never been better. Because the goaltending is elite. Because the coaching is second to none. Because, for too long, the U.S. has just missed. Losing the 4 Nations championship game is the motivator. The Americans were close. So what? The Olympics are different. It's a longer tournament. The Group C play against Latvia, Denmark and Germany will challenge the Americans enough while allowing them to rekindle the chemistry they had at the 4 Nations. They'll roll into the medal round with their lines, defense pairs, goaltending, power-play units and penalty-kill pairs figured out. They'll be the most physical, most energetic team. They'll win the walls, the tight spaces, the battles in front of the net, because they can. They'll score enough. They'll win because the next generation needs heroes. Because it's time. -- Dan Rosen, senior writer