State Your Case: Red Wings or Senators finishing higher in Atlantic Division

The Detroit Red Wings are looking to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2015-16. They're in a good spot, tied for second in the Atlantic Division and one point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Ottawa Senators are trying to make a charge up the Atlantic and qualify for the playoffs for a second consecutive season. They can cut into a seven-point gap when they host the Red Wings at Canadian Tire Centre on Monday (7:30 p.m. ET; TVAS, Prime, FDSNDET).

Ottawa (20-15-5) qualified for the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016-17 and is looking to build on six-game loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Eastern Conference First Round. Detroit (24-15-4) is trying to fend off a challenge from the rest of the teams in its division, separated from first to eighth by eight points.

The Senators have a lot of ground to make up in the second half of the season, but can take from the experience of an impressive stretch drive last season to try and get into a playoff spot this season.

Whether the Senators or Red Wings will finish higher in the Atlantic is a question NHL.com columnist Nicholas J. Cotsonika and staff writer Derek Van Diest debate in the latest installment of State Your Case.

Cotsonika: The math is in Detroit's favor. The Red Wings have a seven-point lead over the Senators with about half a season to go. That's a big cushion. Could they blow it? Sure. In each of the past two seasons, they've struggled down the stretch. In 2023-24, they were 33-20-6 and held the first wild card in the Eastern Conference on Feb. 28. They went 8-12-3 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs. In 2024-25, they were 30-22-6 and held the first wild card in the East on Feb. 26. They went 9-13-2 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs. But for Ottawa to pass Detroit, the Red Wings would have to struggle down the stretch for the third season in a row, and the Senators would have to go on a run at the same time. Unlikely.

Van Diest: It is impressive to me how the Red Wings are first in the Atlantic with a negative goal differential (minus-7). I don't recall a second-place team ever having more goals scored on them than they scored. Eventually that's going to catch up to them in my opinion. Ottawa has a positive goal differential (plus-1) and is the only team in the Eastern Conference that has scored more goals than it has conceded that is not in a playoff spot. I think eventually the math works out in the Senators' favor, and over the course of the next 42 games, if they continue to score more goals then they concede, Ottawa will work its way up the standings. The Senators have started out the New Year well, defeating the Washington Capitals 4-3 and the Winnipeg Jets 4-2 in their first two games. They are starting to put things together and are a much stronger team since captain Brady Tkachuk returned from his thumb injury on Nov. 28. It took Tkachuk a few games to get back to his groove after missing 20 games with the injury sustained in the third game of the season, but he is now just under a point-per-game pace with 19 points (six goals, 13 assists) in 20 games.

Cotsonika: The Red Wings are trending in the right direction this season, despite losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in their past two games, one of them in overtime. Through Nov. 29, Detroit was 13-11-2 and out of the playoff picture, ranking 22nd in goals per game (2.88) and 25th in goals against per game (3.38). Since Nov. 30, the Red Wings have gone 11-4-2 and risen to second in the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference, one point behind the Lightning. They're 17th in goals per game (3.18) and 11th in goals against per game (2.82) over that period. The defensive improvement is the most encouraging. After going 5-7-1 over his first 13 games, goalie John Gibson has gone 9-2-0 in his past 11. That bodes well for staying ahead of the Senators.

Van Diest: The Senators have four games remaining against the Red Wings this season, starting with Monday at Canadian Tire Centre. If Ottawa can win all four, it can make up the difference on Detroit in a hurry. The Senators still have 21 games to play on the road, but if they can gain some traction at home, while maintaining a better than .500 away record (10-8-2), they should be able to work their way up the standings. They ended a seven-season playoff drought in 2024-25 and I don't expect them to take a step backwards this season. Forward Tim Stutzle is an elite offensive player and leads the Senators with 43 points (19 goals, 24 assists) in 40 games and I look forward to seeing what he can do with Team Germany at the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026 playing with Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers. I expect Stutzle to return from the Olympics a better player, like Mario Lemieux did returning from the 1987 Canada Cup having played with Wayne Gretzky. That's going to bode well for the Senators down the stretch.

Cotsonika: Detroit's younger leaders are standing out. Forward Lucas Raymond, 23, leads the Red Wings with 44 points (11 goals, 33 assists) in 41 games. Moritz Seider, 24, leads Red Wings skaters at plus-10. He leads Red Wings defensemen with 31 points (seven goals, 24 assists) in 43 games, and he's averaging 25:12 of ice time per game, sixth in the NHL. Staying ahead of Ottawa is just part of the larger goal in Detroit -- making the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Raymond and Seider have never experienced the playoffs in the NHL. Here's betting they'll be hungry and continue to push. It's going to be tough for Ottawa to catch Detroit.

Van Diest: I do like what Detroit's young players are doing this season, but I'm not sure they will be able to maintain it throughout the rest of the season. Games in January, February, March and April are much harder to win than they are through the first half of the season. Ottawa has the experience of winning games down the stretch, it did so last season, going 16-5-3 in its final 24 games, and claiming the first wild card from the Eastern Conference. I think that experience will pay off in the end for the Senators and I wouldn't be surprised if they make a deal prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on March 6, to bolster the offense. Ottawa was happy to make the playoff last season, but it wasn't too excited about getting bounced in the first round by Toronto after falling behind 3-0 in the best-of-7 series. The Senators have their sights set higher this season.