Mailbag: Hutson's next contract; expectations for Canucks, Rangers 

NHL.com's weekly Over the Boards mailbag is in full swing this season. Every week, senior writer Dan Rosen sifts through your questions sent to him on X and chooses several to answer.

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With Jackson LaCombe and Luke Hughes re-signing at $9 million per, where do you see Lane Hutson landing? -- @kavanyoung

Those contracts give Hutson more leverage in his contract negotiations with the Montreal Canadiens than he already had coming off a Calder Trophy season as NHL rookie of the year. Hutson is in the last of his entry-level contract. It makes all the sense in the world for the Canadiens to sign him long-term. His AAV in that next contract could be $9.5 million or more considering Hughes is making $9 million per on a seven-year contract with the New Jersey Devils and LaCombe is reportedly getting the same AAV on an eight-year contract with the Anaheim Ducks.

ESPN's Emily Kaplan reported on Monday that Hutson had been willing to take slightly less than $9.5 million on an eight-year contract before Hughes and LaCombe reset the market for young defensemen. She reported the Canadiens couldn't get it done.

Montreal is still in a good position even if Hutson gets north of $9.5 million annually because its top three forwards -- Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky -- are all making less than $8 million per season on long-term contracts. Noah Dobson currently has the highest AAV on the team at $9.5 million. The expectation is that Hutson's AAV on his next deal will beat that.

With Brock Boeser returning, how much pressure is on the core in Vancouver? If they can't get it done, what happens next? -- @punmasterrifkin

The pressure point on the Vancouver Canucks is Quinn Hughes' contract, which expires after the 2026-27 season. Like Connor McDavid with the Edmonton Oilers, Hughes, the Norris Trophy-winning defenseman and Canucks captain, will want to know he will have a chance to win with Vancouver before he signs to remain there. There has to be progress toward that this season, so it's up to Hughes, Boeser, forward Elias Pettersson, coach Adam Foote and Canucks management to push toward that goal of being a contender again this season. It was just two seasons ago when Vancouver was seen as a real Stanley Cup contender. Last season went off the rails and was filled with drama. If the Canucks can avoid that this season, stay healthy and be more dynamic offensively, they'll be right there. Hughes led them with 76 points in 68 games last season; Boeser and Conor Garland were tied for second with 50 each. Pettersson had 45 points in 64 games. They have to become a more dangerous offensive team. If they fall flat again, the noise around Hughes and his future will get louder and it could lead to some massive changes next summer.

Realistic projection on how the Rangers will finish this year; no playoffs, playoffs and how far they go if they do make the playoffs? -- @Commish43

It wasn't a good start and clearly, as Mike Sullivan said after a 3-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday, the Rangers have a long way to go. But in the end, they will bounce back from last season, not to where they were in 2023-24, when they won the Presidents' Trophy by setting team records for wins (55) and points (114), but enough to get into the playoffs.

You'll see below that I have them as the first wild card into the playoffs from the Eastern Conference, finishing fourth in what should be a tightly contested Metropolitan Division behind the Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils and Washington Capitals, but with enough points to qualify.

The Rangers should have a loaded top-six forward group with J.T. Miller centering the top line between Mika Zibanejad and Will Cuylle, and Vincent Trocheck back between regular linemates Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere. Miller might still have some lingering effects of a lower-body injury he sustained in training camp; he didn't appear to have the jump Tuesday. It something to monitor. Vladislav Gavrikov and Adam Fox have the potential to be one of the top defense pairs in the League this season, and without question Igor Shesterkin is one of the elite goalies in the NHL.

Depth, however, is the concern; can the Rangers get consistent scoring from their bottom-six forward group? Will their second and third defense pairs of Carson Soucy and Will Borgen, and Urho Vaakanainen and Braden Schneider, respectively, hold up? Will they get anything out of a second power-play unit that as of now, does not feature a center or a player who had 50 points last season? Those are real questions, and the uncertainty is the reason why I have them fourth in the division entering the season.

Every year I pose the same question for Canadian hockey fans: Which of the seven Canadian NHL teams is closest to winning the Stanley Cup? Edmonton has reached back-to-back finals while Toronto remains, well, Toronto. The last Canadian victory in 1993 feels like a distant legend told to inspire hope. So, when will a Canadian team finally lift the Cup? -- @theashcity

It won't be this season, at least in my opinion. Our NHL.com staff predictions came out this week. I was one of five of the 15 staff members who participated in the predictions to pick the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup. Four picked the Dallas Stars, three picked the Colorado Avalanche, and the Oilers, Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes were each picked one time.

The Oilers are clearly the best positioned to become the first Canada-based team to win the Stanley Cup since the Canadians in 1993 considering they've been to the Stanley Cup Final the past two seasons. Connor McDavid's new contract that kicks in next season, a two-year, $25 million deal he signed Monday, extending his $12.5 million cap charge through the 2027-28 season, gives Edmonton a three-year window to win a championship before No. 97 has another decision to make.

But will the goaltending hold up and will the power play make a difference when it matters most to win a championship? Those two areas have been problematic against Florida the past two seasons. Edmonton has been good enough to get to the Stanley Cup Final, but once there, its power play was inconsistent (7-for-47 in 13 games) and the goaltending deteriorated with untimely -- and at times, admittedly -- unacceptable goals against. It has prevented the Oilers from getting the job done. Last season, a 2-2 series after four games quickly ended in the Panthers' favor thanks to a 5-2 win in Game 5 and a 5-1 victory in Game 6. Calvin Pickard started Game 5 and Edmonton trailed 2-0 in the first period. Stuart Skinner started Game 6 and, well, the Oilers were down 2-0 in the first. Each time, the second goal came in the final two minutes of the period. They were 0-for-3 on the power play in Game 5 and did not have a power play in Game 6.

Beyond the Oilers, there's obviously hope for the Winnipeg Jets, who won the Presidents' Trophy last season with 116 points, and the Toronto Maple Leafs, who continue to be a perennial playoff contender. Maybe one year, the Maple Leafs will break through. The Canadiens and Ottawa Senators are up and coming; each made the playoffs last season, but it would be going out on a big limb to say one will come out of the East this season and play for the Stanley Cup. The Canucks and Flames have to get back in the playoffs before we even think about one of them being the team that ends Canada's Cup drought.

One team in each conference that made the playoffs last year but won't this year. One team in each conference that missed the playoffs last year but will make it this year. If it's too much, you can shrink this only one team who won't make it and one team who will. -- @FrankBrodka

In the Eastern Conference, I have the Rangers in and the Montreal Canadiens out.

Montreal made it last season and could do so again this season. Continued growth is expected. But my worry is that the Canadiens grabbed a hold of too much too soon last season, going 15-5-6 coming out of the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, playing to a .692 points percentage after playing to a .491 points percentage through 56 games going into the break. It got Montreal into the playoffs but it also accelerated their process to a degree that maybe they're not ready for. It's not uncommon to see regression before further growth when a team makes as big of a jump as the Canadiens did last season. If the Canadiens level off and the Rangers get back to being closer to what they were two seasons ago, 91 points, which was enough to get into the playoffs last season in the East, won't be this season.

In the West, I have the Flames and Mammoth in, and the Kings and Wild out.

Los Angeles and Minnesota missing the playoffs are my boldest predictions. There were flashes from Calgary and Utah last season. I have concerns about the Kings getting back to being what they were last season, which was the second-best defensive team in the League with 2.48 goals against per game. Their power play doesn't dominate and they're not a shot quantity team. Regression defensively and in net could spell some trouble for the Kings. It's really the same for the Wild, though a full season from Kirill Kaprizov (he played 41 games last season) might give them enough offense to get in provided they stay stingy defensively. The Flames and Mammoth both have some depth, some more scoring punch, quality goaltending and cap space to make moves later in the season.