Heika: Stars finding ways to win with new math

The battle of analytics in hockey is an interesting one, just because it really is difficult to put measurables on the game.
Friday was a great example, as the Stars did a lot of things wrong in regards to arithmetic, but ended up winning a 3-2 game against the San Jose Sharks. Dallas was outshot 43-30, it won 48 percent of its faceoffs, and it handed out 21 giveaways.
Not the plan that coach Jim Montgomery wants to draw up.
But Ben Bishop made 41 saves, the Stars got key goals from depth forwards, and they somehow found a way to win their fourth game in a row and push their record to 16-10-3 (35 points).
It was an odd lesson in just how malleable a game plan can be.

The Stars are missing four of their top seven defensemen in John Klingberg (hand), Marc Methot (knee), Stephen Johns (neck/headaches) and Connor Carrick (foot), so they need to adjust and play a simpler style. That's been working in recent games, as they push shots against to the outside, try to keep odd-man rushes to a minimum, and lean heavily on Bishop and Anton Khudobin.
So what does that mean in the big picture of where this team is going? Well, you kind of have to study their hearts and minds to figure that out.
"There is the confidence/grit factor to winning games, and we're definitely getting better at that," said forward Jason Spezza. "I think we're figuring out how to close out games a little better than what we were doing earlier in the year."
The Stars are 2-5-1 when tied after two periods this season. That's bad. But they have gone 2-1-1 the last four times that situation has occurred. That's good. Do you look at the overall performance of third periods and say the team has some issues, or do you look at the recent trend and say they're learning?

It's one of those things where numbers don't always tell the story.
"We've obviously been a great second-period team, but I don't think we've been a bad third-period team, and we're finding ways to win games or get points. I think that's what's important," said forward Devin Shore.
"All of the stuff with numbers, and even the eye test, they're all just tools you can use to assess your game and try to get better. One thing never tells the whole story -- you need all of it to get the big picture."
Truth be told, the Stars are looking a bit fuzzy when you try to focus on what they are so far.
Dallas is 23rd in shots on goal per game at 29.9, but 12th in shots on goal against at 31.2. They are 23rd in scoring at 2.79 goals per game, but second in goals against at 2.55. They are 27th in SAT (shot attempts at even strength) at minus-173, and that's not the puck possession team everyone believed the Stars would be this season.
But the powers-that-be believe they can become that. They just have to play the cards they are dealt right now. With the injuries, the Stars aren't dynamic, but they can be pretty smart and opportunistic.
"It wasn't pretty, but we're playing winning hockey," Spezza said. "You always want to win games, and we're finding ways to do that right now. You want to build, you want to separate yourself from the pack -- you want to do it all. I think if we can find a way to win games, then we'll be better off when John (Klingberg) and the other players come back."
Because while this team is failing the math portion of the exam, it is getting a heck of a lot better at the "compete" section, as they say in hockey parlance. A team that once had the "effort" question mark front and center is now solving story problems in large group discussions.
"I think we're playing for each other harder for the entire game now. We don't seem to have lapses where our work effort dissipates," said Stars coach Jim Montgomery. "I think we're believing in each other and trusting each other, and I think that goes hand in hand. It is a game. We get paid to either coach or play a game, and they're acting like it, which is a good feeling."

On Friday, the Stars were tied 1-1 after two periods, and being tested. They responded with goals from Miro Heiskanen off a sweet pass from Tyler Pitlick and from Brett Ritchie of an equally impressive dish from Shore. That gave them a 3-1 lead, and then Bishop locked it down with 15 third-period saves.
Those were important numbers, but they were even bigger moments. Because when the depth forwards came through, the arena exploded in merriment and mirth. Celebrations overflowed in the stands, Sharknadovideos taunted the opposition, confidence built on the bench.
Positivity begat positivity.
As we try to understand what makes a winner, we often want a formula that we can trust. Promise me this can be sustained, promise me previous results will guarantee future performance, promise me my heart won't be broken again,
But that's the problem with sports -- they are far too often a faith-based activity.
And right now, the Stars have faith in each other, faith in themselves, faith that they might be able to find their way leaning on hard numbers, and on things that are a little tougher to define.
"We don't think we've come close to playing our best game yet, so we know we have to get ready to work tomorrow to get better so we can get ready for a tough road trip," Spezza said of a four-game junket that begins Sunday in Las Vegas. "But we also want to take what we're doing and build on it. We want to get better as a team and win while we're doing it.
"I think that's the best way to do this."
It's certainly worth a little more study.
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heikais a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika, and listen to his podcast.