Wedgewood vs. Forsberg goalie matchup in Western Conference First Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each at the position, NHL.com charted 100 goals against each goaltender late in the regular season to see what patterns emerged. Here is the comparison between Scott Wedgewood of the Colorado Avalanche and Anton Forsberg of the Los Angeles Kings.

The Western Conference First Round series between the Colorado Avalanche and Los Angeles Kings could feature a couple of surprise starters -- and maybe each of the four goalies before it ends.

Scott Wedgewood has played his way into a likely Game 1 start for the Avalanche despite Mackenzie Blackwood being the presumed starter going into the season. Anton Forsberg has similarly outplayed Darcy Kuemper, who won the Stanley Cup with Colorado in 2022, was a Vezina Trophy finalist as the NHL’s best goalie last season and was on Team Canada at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.

Whether we see each of the four goalies might depend on how well each team identifies and tries to exploit the relative strengths and weaknesses of the starters in this best-of-7 series.

Scott Wedgewood

It’s hard to imagine the Avalanche ignoring Wedgewood’s incredible season to date, even if Blackwood was the presumed starter at the beginning of the season and could yet see time in this series. Not only does Wedgewood lead all NHL goalies (minimum of 25 games) this season with a .921 save percentage, but he’s been even better since the Olympics, going 11-2-1 with a remarkable .945 save percentage. He has allowed 86 goals this entire season, the sample size for this exercise.

Target positional aggression: Wedgewood is an exceptional skater, whether it’s retreating on his edges, gliding into angle or powering across his crease in a butterfly slide. He uses that talent to play a more aggressive positional game, often starting above the edge of his crease or wide of his posts even on in-zone plays. It’s not surprising then to see more goals than most scored along the ice outside either skate, which often indicates a backdoor tap-in, with the 30 total (34.8 percent) well above the 24.3 percent tracked average for the more than 10,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017. It’s also not surprising that Wedgewood’s 22 goals (25.6 percent) off lateral plays and passes across the middle of the ice are one of the few categories that are also above the 22.1 percent average. Even on the 11 goals off cross-ice plays below the hash marks, Wedgewood started outside his posts or on, or above the top edge of his crease, for seven of them.

Avoid the glove: Using a more neutral “handshake” glove position with a slight “fingers up” twist as he settles into his save stance, Wedgewood has exceptional results both under and over the glove. Even though the charted goal results don’t represent a save percentage, they are both below the average totals on the glove side. Wedgewood also didn’t give up a clean-look goal over the glove, and the only partial breakaway goal over the glove came after a cross-crease deke off the wing and elevated backhand from close to the crease. There wasn’t a single clean-look goal low on the glove side, and none off breakaways of any type as well.

Blocker side? The goal totals are only slightly above average high blocker at 19.8 percent compared to 17.8 percent, but well above average under the blocker at 17.4 percent versus the 10.3 percent average. But even most of the goals were a mixture of screens, bounces off defenders, rebounds and east-west plays. Only two clean-look goals came above the blocker, as did all three goals off breakaway shots, with just one clean goal below it. 

Breakaway dekes: The more prevalent trend among the 14 1-on-1 goals, which at 16.3 percent is above the 10.2 average, was the success of dekes rather than shots. While two were off in-tight plays, the remaining 12 included the above-mentioned three blocker side-shot goals, while the other nine goals were scored on dekes, taking advantage of an early low, wide-and-glide retreat by stretching him out in either direction, and twice slipping it against the grain into the five-hole as Wedgewood opened up while making his push.

Anton Forsberg

Forsberg is also having too good a season and stretch drive to ignore, even if most would have expected Kuemper to be the Kings starter for the playoffs. Not only did Forsberg finish the season with a .910 save percentage that ranks seventh in the NHL among goalies to play at least 25 games, but he went 5-2-0 with a .946 save percentage during the final month of the regular season to help the Kings get into the playoffs in the first place, and left only 87 goals from the season to break down.

Side-to-side down low: Plays across the middle of the ice increase the chances of scoring on any goalie, and the 21 (24.1 percent) scored on Forsberg is only slightly above the tracked average. But it was notable that 14 came from below the hash marks and a tendency to square on puck carriers from sharp angles above the goal line, both in a save stance on his skates but also when he’s on his knees and up against the post in a reverse VH, creates a much more difficult rotation and lateral push. It played a factor in eight of those goals.

Make him work off his posts: Those plays were part of a larger trend of 29 goals (33 percent) scored on plays from below the bottom of the face-off dots and behind the goal line, almost double the 17.1 percent average. And while there were a variety of play types and factors, including the defending in front of Forsberg and a few sharp-angle shots that went straight in, the overriding theme was forcing him to work off his posts from down low.

One-timer shots up ice: On plays higher in the zone, slightly aggressive positioning at, or even above, the edge of the crease, combined with a habit of backing across the ice on lateral passes with a momentum-building reverse c-cut, rather than rotating and pushing, can create some vulnerability on one-timers and quick releases.

Against the grain: The trend on the clean-look goals included nine of 14 on shots against the grain. A tendency to retreat or glide straight back and times left him a little flat rather than on angle and that can create exposure far side.

Five-hole or seven-hole?: The 17 goals (19.5 percent) between the pads are a high total compared to the 10.5 percent average but came on 10 different types of scoring plays, including some clean looks. At times, the cost of staying patient on his edges and not committing too early is a few shots sliding in along the ice. It’s worth it to protect the perimeter of the net, something Forsberg does well. The more prudent target may be low blocker (14 goals, 16.1 percent) or even off the right hip (seven goals, 8.0 percent, more than double the average) because his results in the top corner on each side are excellent.