Unmasked: '.900 is the new .915 or .920' when it comes to save percentage

The continued decline in NHL save percentage is forcing goalies across the League to re-think -- if not completely abandon -- the statistical standards employed in the past to judge their performance, which isn’t easy when those goalies know others judging them aren’t making the same calculations. 

The NHL average save percentage was down to .897 through Thursday and will finish below .900 for the first time in 30 years since the average was .898 in 1995-96. It has been a steady decline throughout the past decade from a high of .915 in 2015-16, a drop forcing goalies to adjust their mindsets around the statistics by which they are most often measured.

That average from 10 years ago would be tied for second among goalies with at least 20 appearances in the NHL this season. Scott Wedgewood of the Colorado Avalanche has a .916 save percentage in 39 appearances.

“It can be discouraging if you start looking at the numbers now, but I think you have to look at the bigger picture,” said Darcy Kuemper of the Los Angeles Kings, who has an .899 save percentage in 46 appearances this season. “Shot volume is down and shot quality is way up, and that's a big difference. So the focus has to be on winning, not on how many saves did I make, or what was my save percentage. If you stay focused on that, you'll be a lot happier and the results will probably be a lot better as well.”

When Kuemper broke into the NHL in 2012-13, the League average save percentage was .912, part of a mostly steady rise from .901 in 2005-06, a season in which it dropped from 10 points from .911 in 2003-04. The decrease, in large part, accompanied rule changes, including limits on the size of goalie equipment and an emphasis on calling obstruction fouls, designed to increase scoring coming out of a work stoppage in 2004-05. 

Save percentage peaked with consecutive .915 seasons in 2013-14 and 2014-15 before the current decline. The sharpest drops have come in the past two seasons, falling .003 in each.

Kuemper, 35, already hinted at the biggest reasons for the recent decline, which were covered in detail in this space last season. Shot totals are down almost 7.5 per game from a 63.3 average in 2021-22 to 55.9. They are down four shots per game during the past two seasons, in part because of more accurate tracking and stricter measurements by NHL statisticians. 

As Kuemper also mentioned, NHL teams are focusing instead on creating more dangerous scoring chances with screens and east-west passing plays that force a goalie to move before taking a shot. As a result, the percentage of more difficult saves has risen. The old-school maxim of any shot is a good shot rarely applies in today’s NHL. 

With those shifts, it’s no surprise save percentage continues to decline. 

“When I came into the League, it was all about ‘put the puck on net,’ at least 30 shots a game,” said Andrei Vasilevskiy, in his 12th season with the Tampa Bay Lightning. “Nowadays it's more like 15 shots and the skilled guys are not shooting the puck, they want to put the puck in the net with all the backdoors and fancy plays. But over the years, I'm a lot more comfortable with it now.”

That’s not to say Vasilevskiy, who last season said “guys don’t waste shots” anymore because low-quality chances are increasingly viewed like a turnover, doesn’t still prefer the games when he is busier, but he has learned to manage the slower nights differently. 

“It's hard to stay mentally in those games, especially when it could be 15 shots and 12 scoring chances,” said Vasilevskiy, who has a .912 save percentage in 50 appearances this season. “That's why I don't look at the shot clock during the period.”

NHL goalies are trying to do the same when it comes to save percentage.

“It's hard not to look at stats, no question about it, because that's what people judge you on,” said Kings goalie Anton Forsberg, who has a .902 save percentage in 29 appearances. “But at the end of the day, I can tell which games I haven't played well and which games I have played well. There can be games I let in five and it's like, 'OK, I felt good tonight’ and you take that feeling out of that game. 

“Focusing a lot on the feeling has been my biggest thing this year and that kind of separates you from the numbers. It's not going to be .900 every night. Back in the day you could let in four and still have a .900. Let in four now, you probably have an .800 save percentage. At the end of the day, you have to look at ‘What did I do out there? How did I feel?’ and move on. Otherwise, if you focus on the stats, especially if you have the old mentality of a .910 means you're having a rough year, you're going to beat yourself up day in and day out.”

Kuemper thinks it might be easier for younger goalies coming into the NHL to adjust to dropping save percentages because they don’t know any different, while also admitting he used to pay a lot more attention to his statistics earlier in this career. 

“Oh yeah, for sure, because you know that's how you're getting judged,” Kuemper said. “You want to have good stats; you can stay in the League and establish yourself. I think later in your career you're more focused on winning games than you are your personal stat lines so the drop (in save percentage) is easier, probably, for the guys that are established. 

“But with that being said, the new guys don't know any different. So a .900 is the new .915 or .920. The the bar is a little different and I'd guess it's less of an adjustment for those guys.”

To an extent perhaps, but there’s still something about .900 that remains a base line for mean, and with the average dropping 11 points from .908 in the past five years alone, getting used to a standard below that level is a mindset adjustment even for new goalies. 

“We all grew up when .900 was like OK, not great,” said Vancouver Canucks goalie Nikita Tolopilo, who has played 17 NHL games and has an .892 save percentage. “But right now when you look around the League, if a goalie is above .900, it's like, 'Oh, that's impressive.’ It's definitely changed so much but that is the goal still, like in my head I still can't turn the page, it should be .900 at least.”