NHL EDGE stats: Islanders' long-term outlook under DeBoer

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics surrounding the New York Islanders after their coaching change April 5.

The New York Islanders have made a late-season coaching change by hiring Peter DeBoer to replace Patrick Roy on Sunday, and his system could help them improve either this season or beyond as they build around franchise cornerstones Matthew Schaefer and Ilya Sorokin.

The Islanders, who won the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery and selected Schaefer with the No. 1 pick, have been in Stanley Cup Playoff position for most of the season but were in the midst of a season-long four-game losing streak prior to the coaching change. New York, which was 3-7-0 over its past 10 games prior to the coaching change, has four games remaining in the regular season, all at home and three against teams currently in postseason position.

DeBoer ranks fifth in NHL history in career playoff wins (97-82 record) and has the most of any coach to never win the Stanley Cup. He led the Dallas Stars to the Western Conference Final in each of the past three seasons and has reached the third round of the playoffs in six of his past seven seasons (other instances: 2021, 2020 with Vegas Golden Knights; 2019 with San Jose Sharks). He has two Stanley Cup Final appearances (with New Jersey Devils in 2012, Sharks in 2016) and has led his teams to the playoffs in nine of his past 11 seasons. It's also worth noting DeBoer has the best Game 7 record in NHL history (9-0).

Schaefer has already set NHL records for most points (58 in first 78 games) and goals (22) by an 18-year-old defenseman, is the front-runner for the Calder Trophy given to the NHL's rookie of the year and one goal away from tying Brian Leetch for the most goals ever by a rookie defenseman (23 in 1988-89). Sorokin led the NHL in shutouts (seven) this season prior to the coaching change and is one of the top contenders for the Vezina Trophy ahead of the voting for the NHL's top goalie.

But while the Islanders do have two high-scoring forwards in Bo Horvat (leads team with 30 goals, 217 shots on goal) and Mathew Barzal (leads team with 70 points in 77 games), their secondary scoring and struggles in some key metrics have caused them to go from one of the biggest surprises in the NHL this season to regressing down the stretch. The Islanders are playing their first season under general manager Mathieu Darche after not renewing the contract of Lou Lamoriello last offseason.

In terms of average years of age, the Islanders have the ninth-oldest roster in the NHL (29.73; 25th out of 32 teams). But, with DeBoer expected to remain the Islanders coach beyond this season, he could incorporate the team's top prospects, most notably forwards Cole Eiserman (20th pick in 2024 NHL Draft), Victor Eklund (16th pick in 2025 NHL Draft) and defenseman Kashawn Aitcheson (17th pick in 2025 draft).

Here are three underlying reasons the Islanders could bounce back after their coaching change:

1. Schaefer leads Islanders' EDGE standouts

Schaefer ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in various advanced metrics as of Monday, April 6 (with percentile rankings among defensemen listed below):

• Max skating speed: 23.09 mph (95th percentile) 
• 22-plus mph speed bursts: 33 (99th percentile; leads position)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 264 (99th percentile; leads position)
• Total skating distance: 284.25 miles (99th percentile; second at position)
• High-danger shots on goal: 16 (97th percentile; tied for seventh at position)
• Midrange shots on goal: 75 (99th percentile; third at position)
• Long-range shots on goal: 95 (98th percentile; eighth at position)
• High-danger goals: 3 (94th percentile; tied for eighth at position)
• Midrange goals: 11 (99th percentile; fourth at position)
• Long-range goals: 8 (99th percentile; second at position)

The Islanders, despite their recent struggles, had the ninth-best penalty kill percentage (81.5) this season prior to their coaching change and also ranked among the advanced stats leaders in key categories like 22-plus mph speed bursts (129; third), average shot speed (59.44 mph; sixth) and midrange shots on goal (674; fourth).

Horvat, one of the Islanders' two representatives at the 2026 Winter Olympics (other: Ondrej Palat), played under DeBoer when the coach was an assistant for Canada in the tournament. Horvat has been another EDGE stats juggernaut, ranking in the 93rd percentile or higher among forwards in hardest shot, average shot speed, 22 and 20-plus mph speed bursts, midrange goals and midrange shots on goal as of Monday, April 6.

Other Islanders skaters among the NHL EDGE leaders as of Monday, April 6 include Barzal (301 speed bursts of 20-plus mph; seventh in NHL), wing Anders Lee (102 high-danger shots on goal; tied for sixth) and defenseman Ryan Pulock (hardest shot of 103.01 mph; fourth).

2. Sorokin's high-danger prowess

Among qualifying goalies (minimum 23 games played) this season, Sorokin led the NHL in both high-danger save percentage (.869) and high-danger saves (stopping 444 of 511 high-danger shots faced) as of Monday, April 6.

The tandem of Sorokin and David Rittich helped the Islanders rank among the leaders in team save percentage (.898; tied for fifth) and goals allowed per game (2.87; third fewest) prior to the coaching change. But, over the final week before the Islanders fired Roy, they allowed 42 high-danger shots on goal over their four losses (10.5 per game); the only team that allowed more over that span from March 30 to Roy's final day as New York's coach (April 5) were the Florida Panthers (43).

Since March 5, Sorokin has played in 15 of New York's past 16 games prior to the coaching change, starting 14 of those games. Over that span, the Islanders are 5-1-0 when Sorokin has had a quality start (greater than .900 save percentage) compared to 1-7-0 when he does not. All of these recent metrics suggest the Islanders have leaned too heavily on Sorokin.

3. Area of improvement: possession metrics

Even with so many masterful performances by Sorokin, the Islanders' 5-on-5 metrics have derailed their season. The Islanders ranked 30th out of 32 teams in offensive zone time percentage at even strength (42.7) and are 21st in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (48.7) as of Monday, April 6, both strong indicators of a team's staying power as a postseason contender.

Combine those areas of weakness with a power play that ranks third worst this season (16.7 percent), the Islanders are not capitalizing on their man-advantage opportunities and have also struggled in terms of ”Ice Tilt,” an NHL EDGE IQ metric used to quantify territorial momentum based on which team has the advantage (and by what margin) at any given point during game play. The Islanders rank 26th in average Ice Tilt advantage in regulation (9:28 per period) this season as of Monday, April 6, suggesting they are not carrying play as well as most other teams around the League.

Whether at the tail-end of this season, next season and/or beyond, DeBoer brings some hope in the Islanders' areas of weakness based on his recent track record. Below are where DeBoer's teams ranked in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage during the puck and player tracking era:

• VGK in 2021-22: 52.6 (eighth)
• DAL in 2022-23: 51.7 (10th)
• DAL in 2023-25: 53.2 (fifth)
• DAL in 2024-25: 49.5 (18th)

DeBoer also helped Dallas rank in the top 10 in power-play percentage in two of his three seasons there and also the top 10 in penalty kill percentage during all three seasons. This proves he could be the right person to carry the Islanders forward, advance the careers of Schaefer and Sorokin while also addressing their areas of improvement, especially with the inevitable roster moves and call-ups to come in future seasons.