NHL EDGE stats: Celebrini building case for Hart Trophy with Sharks

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE  puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down Macklin Celebrini’s chances of winning the Hart Trophy this season.

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Macklin Celebrini is having one of the best seasons by a teenager in NHL history, and the San Jose Sharks being on the cusp of the Stanley Cup Playoffs makes the 19-year-old a bona fide Hart Trophy contender.

Celebrini has already surpassed the 100-point mark this season (105 in 74 games; fourth in entire NHL) and, with eight games remaining for San Jose, has the fourth-most points by a teenager in history behind Wayne Gretzky (137 in 1979-80 with Edmonton Oilers), Sidney Crosby (120 in 2006-07 with Pittsburgh Penguins) and Jimmy Carson (107 in 1987-88 with Kings). The only teenagers in NHL history to win the Hart Trophy were Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby during those aforementioned seasons.

The Sharks (36-31-7, 79 points) are tied with the Kings (30-26-19, 79 points) for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference; San Jose has played one fewer game (74) than Los Angeles (75). The last time the Sharks were in a playoff spot at this stage of a season or later (1,204 total games played across NHL this season) was when they qualified for the postseason on April 6, 2019.

San Jose has been the most-improved team in the NHL (plus-16 wins) this season thanks to Celebrini’s prowess and the rest of the Sharks’ promising young core, which includes forwards Will Smith (No. 4 pick in 2023 NHL Draft), William Eklund (No. 7 pick in 2021 NHL Draft), Collin Graf and Michael Misa (No. 2 pick in 2025 NHL Draft). The Sharks have four 20-goal scorers, including Celebrini (40 goals), his most-frequent linemate Smith (22 goals; 21 years old), Graf (20 goals; 23 years old) and in-season trade acquisition Kiefer Sherwood (21; 31 years old).

Celebrini is on pace to surpass Joe Thornton (114 in 2006-07) for the Sharks’ single-season points record and has factored in on 46.5 percent of San Jose’s goals this season, second-most in the NHL behind Connor McDavid (47.7) of the Oilers. Celebrini is on pace for the highest percentage of a team’s goals in a season ever by a teenager (Gretzky has record at 45.5 in 1979-80).

Celebrini has had many offensive outbursts this season; he’s among the NHL leaders in multipoint games (28; tied for sixth), three-point games (17; third) and four-point games (five; tied for third). With six career four-point games through his first two NHL seasons, Celebrini ranks fourth among teenagers in history behind Gretzky (14), Crosby (eight) and Dale Hawerchuk (seven).

Here are three underlying reasons Celebrini can win the Hart Trophy this season:

1. Shot speed

Celebrini ranks seventh among NHL forwards in hardest shot (97.89 mph) and leads Sharks skaters in the category this season. He is also among the forward leaders in average shot speed (62.32 mph; 95th percentile). 

He has six 90-plus mph shot attempts this season, including two since March 21; he didn’t have any 90-plus mph shots last season as a rookie, showing his drastic improvement. He is also tied with Filip Forsberg of the Nashville Predators for the NHL lead in wrist shot goals this season (24 each), showing he has an elite release.

2. Midrange offense

Celebrini leads the entire NHL in both midrange goals (23; four more than next-highest player) and midrange shots on goal (144) this season. Celebrini also ranks highly among forwards in long-range shots on goal (27; 96th percentile) and long-range goals (two; 94th percentile).

Celebrini has also shown his clutch goal-scoring ability this season; he has factored in on 26 game-tying goals (11 goals, 15 assists) this season, which leads the entire NHL. Celebrini is also the full package on both ends of the ice; he ranks fifth in the NHL in primary assists (43), has the third-most assists (65) by a teenager in history behind Gretzky (86) and Crosby (84) and is also tied for fifth in takeaways (40). Celebrini has helped Smith have a career-high 54 points in 61 games despite Smith missing 13 games because of injury.

3. Skating ability

Celebrini ranks highly among forwards in 20-plus mph speed bursts (175; 93rd percentile) this season. He is also a skating distance standout, ranking fourth among forwards at all strengths (266.14 miles) and second at the position in power-play skating distance (44.26 miles; behind McDavid’s 45.09).

Although Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon and McDavid are perennial Art Ross Trophy contenders, Celebrini has already closed the gap and could have as high of a ceiling as those players in the years ahead. When considering the Sharks are 2-15-3 when Celebrini does not have a point this season, he has been arguably the most important player to his team -- strengthening his Hart Trophy case, especially if San Jose makes the playoffs.

Even if the Sharks narrowly miss the postseason, it wouldn't be unprecedented for Celebrini to win most valuable player; the last time a player from a non-playoff team won the Hart was Mario Lemieux of the Penguins in 1987-88, when he led the NHL in points (168 points in 77 games) as a 22-year-old despite Pittsburgh missing the postseason by one point.