Super 16: Comparing teams in NHL.com power rankings from preseason expectations

There have been 1,201 games played this season. Suffice it to say, a lot has happened, and a lot still needs to happen to set the field for the Stanley Cup Playoffs that begin April 20.

How we got here might not necessarily mean as much as where we go from here in the 111 games remaining across the final 14 days of the regular season, but where we are now, how does that match up to where we thought we'd be when the season began Oct. 10?

Are expectations being met or exceeded? Does the reality of how a team has played and where it sits in the standings match with the vision you had those many months ago when the Vegas Golden Knights were raising the 2023 Stanley Cup banner to the T-Mobile Arena rafters.

That's what we're analyzing in this week's Super 16, which is again led by the New York Rangers at No. 1, but with the Dallas Stars moving up two spots to be right behind them and the Boston Bruins jumping three spots to No. 3.

As a reminder, to come up with the Super 16 each week, the voters put together their own version of what they think the rankings should look like and a point total is assigned to each, with the team selected first given 16 points, second 15, third 14, and so on.

Here is expectation versus reality edition of the Super 16:

1. New York Rangers (51-21-4)

Total points: 185
Last week: No. 1

"Not to pat myself on the back or anything, but I did have the Rangers winning the Stanley Cup in the NHL.com preseason predictions we made in October. But that was because I thought Blake Wheeler would have a big impact on this team, Mika Zibanejad would have a Hart Trophy-type season, and new coach Peter Laviolette would turn this team into a consistent winner. Well, one out of three ain't bad. What I didn't see coming was an incredible season from forward Artemi Panarin, 22-year-old Alexis Lafrenière suddenly showing the talent and skill that made him the No. 1 pick of the 2020 NHL Draft, and Jonathan Quick joining forces with Igor Shesterkin to form arguably the best goaltending tandem in the NHL." -- Bill Price, Editor-in-Chief

2. Dallas Stars (48-19-9)

Total points: 180
Last week: No. 4

"I definitely expected the Stars to be near the top of, or leading the Central Division, as the season is coming to a close. I covered most of the Stars' run during the 2023 playoffs, and they had a lot of good things in place en route to advancing to the Western Conference Final. That's continued into this season. From great depth and scoring among their forwards to solid defense and goaltending, the Stars have outstanding balance. They have familiarity, with their core players of forwards Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin, captain Jamie Benn and defenseman Miro Heiskanen having been together for several seasons. The Stars are in a great position to vie for the Stanley Cup this season, and I'm not surprised at all that they're one of the top teams in the League with the playoffs just around the corner." -- Tracey Myers, staff writer

3. Boston Bruins (44-17-15)

Total points: 154
Last week: No. 6

"Full credit to the Bruins. Which is to say that, no, I did not expect them to be in first place in the Atlantic Division, still in the running to win the Presidents' Trophy for a second straight season. And I'm pretty sure I'm not alone, a group that probably included a few people on the payroll of the Bruins. When they lost both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to retirement after a historically good regular season in 2022-23, no one -- including me -- thought they would be one of the best teams in the NHL all season. I thought they'd probably make the playoffs, but maybe be third in the Atlantic, maybe a wild-card team. Shows what I know." -- Amalie Benjamin, staff writer

4. Colorado Avalanche (47-22-6)

Total points: 153
Last week: No. 2

"Of course, I expected the Avalanche to be near the top of the NHL standings, fighting for the Presidents' Trophy with two weeks left in the season. This team won the Stanley Cup in 2022 and finished first in the Central Division last season. It is anchored by perhaps the best player in the world in forward Nathan MacKinnon (apologies to Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers, who is the people's choice). The Avalanche also have arguably the best defenseman in the world in Cale Makar and, as a whole, one the deepest defensive corps in the League. And, oh yeah, coach Jared Bednar is among the best -- and most underrated -- coaches in the game. That's a pretty potent recipe for success." -- Shawn P. Roarke, senior director of editorial

5. Carolina Hurricanes (47-21-7)

Total points: 147
Last week: No. 7

"The Hurricanes have exceeded expectations this season, in my opinion, only because their No. 1 goalie, Frederik Andersen, missed four months because of a blood-clotting issue. But Pyotr Kochetkov has been outstanding; the 24-year-old has a 2.38 goals-against average and four shutouts, helping Carolina stay in the Metropolitan Division race. A Kochetkov/Andersen tandem is going to make the Hurricanes an awfully tough out in the playoffs." -- Brian Compton, managing editor

6. Vancouver Canucks (47-21-8)

Total points: 139
Last week: No. 3

"I picked the Canucks to make the playoffs. I did not pick them to finish first in the Pacific Division. I did not pick the Canucks to be in the race for the Presidents' Trophy, but they've far exceeded expectations. Third or fourth in the division, a wild-card team -- that would have been right on point with expectations. But the Canucks have carried their strong finish from last season into this season without any drop off. They started to develop an identity as a fast, aggressive, explosive yet hard team to play against after Rick Tocchet took over as coach in January of last season. That has been the identity they have shown for the balance of this season, led by the superb play of defenseman Quinn Hughes, who should be the favorite to win the Norris Trophy." -- Dan Rosen, senior writer

7. Florida Panthers (47-24-5)

Total points: 116
Last week: No. 5

"Full disclosure: No way did I think the Panthers would be in striking distance of the Presidents' Trophy at this stage in the regular season. My concern was how effective the club would be defensively the first month of the season minus defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, who each had offseason shoulder surgery and would miss time. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Niko Mikkola and Dmitry Kulikov each signed as a free agent, but questions lingered to how quickly this group would jell. I was wrong; Florida owns the best goal-differential in the League. -- Mike G. Morreale, senior draft writer

8. Edmonton Oilers (45-24-5)

Total points: 113
Last week: No. 10

"Considering the way the Oilers started the season, I did not expect them to be within catching distance of the Canucks for first in the Pacific Division. The Oilers started off with a 2-9-1 record, dropping them into a tie for last in the NHL overall standings. Edmonton made a coaching change Nov. 12, hiring Kris Knoblauch to replace Jay Woodcroft, and since then has been one of the best teams in the League. I thought if the Oilers were going to get back in the playoff race, it would be battling for the second wild card from the Western Conference. Instead, buoyed by a 16-game winning streak from Dec. 21 to Jan. 27, the Oilers are second in the division within sight of the Canucks, which I don't think anyone would have expected." -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer

9. Toronto Maple Leafs (43-23-9)

Total points: 88
Last week: No. 12

"Entering the season, I picked the Maple Leafs to win the Atlantic Division. But a lot of that was based on two assumptions: 1) That the Bruins would struggle after losing Bergeron and Krejci to retirement; 2) That the Panthers would struggle, at least early in the season, due to injuries to defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour. Well, Boston and Florida have been just fine. Toronto is probably right where it belongs: third in the Atlantic, not far behind the other two. Once again, the Maple Leafs face tough matchups in the playoffs. They could play the Panthers in the first round, the same team that defeated them in five games in the second round last year." -- Nicholas J. Cotsonika, columnist

10. Winnipeg Jets (45-24-6)

Total points: 82
Last week: No. 9

"The Jets have exceeded expectations this year according to me and just about everyone else. After qualifying for the playoffs as the second wild card in the West and losing to the Golden Knights in five games in the first round, they had the League's best record at one point this season and are competing for the top spot in the Central Division. I expected them to compete for a wild card again this season, but their goaltending and defensive play has carried them all season and could make them a very dangerous team in the playoffs." -- David Satriano, staff writer

11. Nashville Predators (43-28-4)

Total points: 71
Last week: No. 8

"The Predators weren't on my playoff radar at the start of the season. Too much turnover, I thought. A new general manager, David Poile to Barry Trotz. A new coach, John Hynes to Andrew Brunette. A new top center, Matt Duchene to Ryan O'Reilly. Ryan Johansen gone too. Yes, they added Gustav Nyquist on the wing and Luke Schenn on the back end, but speed? Where was it? Could they play Brunette's up-tempo system? Well, it took a while. It was looking like I was going to be right. They won 27 of their first 54 games (27-25-2). But then goalie Juuse Saros got hot, their special teams started to click, top players like Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi started to take over, and the Predators started to be a team that would thrive in the up-tempo game. They defeated the St. Louis Blues 5-2 on Feb. 17 after losing 9-2 to the Stars two nights earlier. The Predators didn't lose in regulation again until March 28, going on an 18-game point streak (16-0-2) to pull into playoff position. They've cooled with three losses in a row, a bit of a market correction, but make no mistake, I was wrong about them. They're for real." -- Rosen

12. Vegas Golden Knights (42-25-8)

Total points: 70
Last week: No. 14

"Going back to my season predictions, I had the Golden Knights finishing first in the Pacific Division, because they were able to keep their roster mostly intact and their style of play was something that was repeatable for an 82-game season, not a hot run for two months in the spring. And as we enter the final weeks of the season, they're not far off from that prediction. Injuries have taken their toll, with No. 1 center Jack Eichel missing nearly two months because of a knee injury sustained Jan. 11, No. 1 defenseman Shea Theodore out three months because of an upper-body injury sustained Nov. 22, and top-line forward Mark Stone is questionable to return this season after injuring his spleen Feb. 20. Also missing significant time this season have been goalie Adin Hill, defensemen Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez, and forward William Carrier. Would having some or all of those key players healthy all season make the difference between finishing third and first in the division? Considering they're just eight points behind the first-place Canucks with all their issues, so I think you'd have to say yes, they'd be right in the hunt for the division title." -- Adam Kimelman, deputy managing editor

13. Tampa Bay Lightning (42-26-7)

Total points: 62
Last week: No. 13

"Andrei Vasilevskiy's back surgery shortly before the regular season opened gave me pause. Is that the last straw for the Lightning, a team that has lost so many important depth players from a championship era like Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh and Ross Colton? Then, they weren't going to have their most important player for maybe the first two months of the season. And with due respect to Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, Vasilevskiy is their most important player. I still picked them to be the second wild card into the playoffs from the Eastern Conference. The Lightning would have to miss for me to believe it. Well, Vasilevskiy came back six weeks into the season, Kucherov has had an MVP season, and the Lightning since early January have been a top 10 team in the NHL. They're targeted for the first wild-card spot, so technically they have exceeded my expectations, but it's not at all a surprise that they're the team no one wants to play in the first round." -- Rosen

14. Los Angeles Kings (39-25-11)

Total points: 33
Last week: No. 11

"I picked the Kings to finish third in the Pacific Division. If not for the Golden Knights' hot streak, that's where they would be. But getting there, and then eventually dropping into the second wild-card position, was a bumpy road. When I picked the Kings to finish third in the division, I figured they would be doing it with Todd McLellan as coach. That changed Feb. 2, when the Kings, despite coming off a 4-2 win against the Predators, fired McLellan and replaced him on an interim basis with Jim Hiller. At the time, it looked like a panic move by a team that was going backward. The Kings were 7-11-7 in 25 games before the firing, and that includes the win against the Predators on Jan. 31. I thought at that point they were done, that a hot start, 16-4-3 in their first 23 games, was all for naught and the Kings would fade for the rest of the season. But that's not what happened. They deserve credit for rebounding. By the standings they have underachieved based on my preseason expectations, but in reality, getting to the playoffs this season would be no small feat considering the state they were in only two months ago." -- Rosen

15. St. Louis Blues (40-31-4)

Total points: 14
Last week: Unranked

"The Blues are doing exactly what I thought they'd be doing from the jump this season; hanging around the periphery of the playoff race, a contender but not quite good enough to crack the top eight in the Western Conference. The fact is the Blues, Stanley Cup champions just five years ago, are stuck in the murky middle, not good enough to be a contender but not bad enough to be a threat to win the Draft Lottery. It's not a bad spot to be in if they can find a way to squeeze into the playoffs, but they're three points behind the Kings, who have a game in hand. It's not surprising that this is where the Blues are, but it's not the spot they want to be in either." -- Rosen

16. Washington Capitals (36-28-10)

Total points: 10
Last week: No. 15

"Before the season, I thought the Capitals could return to playoff contention after missing last season if a lot of things fell into place. Some of those things have, including young forwards such as Connor McMichael, Hendrix Lapierre and Aliaksei Protas handling key roles, but others, such as Evgeny Kuznetsov rebounding from a poor season, have not. Still, despite Kuznetsov's personal and off-ice troubles before being traded to the Hurricanes, and Alex Ovechkin scoring eight goals in his first 43 games before rediscovering his scoring touch with 18 goals since then, the Capitals are in position to qualify for the playoffs. Goalie Charlie Lindgren deserves a lot of credit for that, along with the entire team buying into playing a structured game under first-time NHL coach Spencer Carbery." -- Tom Gulitti, staff writer

Others receiving points: Philadelphia Flyers 9, New York Islanders 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Detroit Red Wings 1, Minnesota Wild 1

Dropped out: Flyers (No. 16)

New Amsterdam Game of the Week

Each week, NHL.com will highlight one game that features two teams in the Super 16. In this edition, it's the No. 4 Avalanche against the No. 8 Oilers at Rogers Place in Edmonton on Friday (9 p.m. ET; TVAS, SNW, ALT).

They're both in the playoffs, and they won't face each other until the Western Conference Final at the earliest, but this matchup is less about the teams and more about the race for the Art Ross Trophy as the League's leading scorer. Nathan MacKinnon has 127 points, three behind Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov for the NHL lead. Edmonton's Connor McDavid had 126 points. It's not a head-to-head matchup between McDavid and MacKinnon on Friday night, but that will be the talk of the game, the main storyline. They'll face each other again in Denver on April 18, the last day of the regular season.

HERE'S HOW WE RANKED ’EM

AMALIE BENJAMIN

1. Colorado Avalanche; 2. New York Rangers; 3. Dallas Stars; 4. Boston Bruins; 5. Vancouver Canucks; 6. Florida Panthers; 7. Carolina Hurricanes; 8. Edmonton Oilers; 9. Nashville Predators; 10. Winnipeg Jets; 11. Tampa Bay Lightning; 12. Vegas Golden Knights; 13. Toronto Maple Leafs; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. St. Louis Blues; 16. Washington Capitals

BRIAN COMPTON

1. Dallas Stars; 2. New York Rangers; 3. Carolina Hurricanes; 4. Vancouver Canucks; 5. Colorado Avalanche; 6. Boston Bruins; 7. Florida Panthers; 8. Edmonton Oilers; 9. Toronto Maple Leafs; 10. Nashville Predators; 11. Vegas Golden Knights; 12. Winnipeg Jets; 13. Tampa Bay Lightning; 14. Washington Capitals; 15. Philadelphia Flyers; 16. Los Angeles Kings

NICHOLAS J. COTSONIKA

1. New York Rangers; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Boston Bruins; 4. Carolina Hurricanes; 5. Colorado Avalanche; 6. Vancouver Canucks; 7. Edmonton Oilers; 8. Florida Panthers; 9. Toronto Maple Leafs; 10. Winnipeg Jets; 11. Vegas Golden Knights; 12. Tampa Bay Lightning; 13. Nashville Predators; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. St. Louis Blues; 16. Washington Capitals

TOM GULITTI

1. New York Rangers; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Boston Bruins; 4. Carolina Hurricanes; 5. Colorado Avalanche; 6. Vancouver Canucks; 7. Toronto Maple Leafs; 8. Edmonton Oilers; 9. Florida Panthers; 10. Winnipeg Jets; 11. Vegas Golden Knights; 12. Tampa Bay Lightning; 13. Nashville Predators; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. St. Louis Blues; 16. Washington Capitals

ADAM KIMELMAN

1. New York Rangers; 2. Vancouver Canucks; 3. Dallas Stars; 4. Boston Bruins; 5. Colorado Avalanche; 6. Carolina Hurricanes; 7. Edmonton Oilers; 8. Winnipeg Jets; 9. Florida Panthers; 10. Toronto Maple Leafs; 11. Tampa Bay Lightning; 12. Nashville Predators; 13. Vegas Golden Knights; 14. Philadelphia Flyers; 15. Los Angeles Kings; 16. New York Islanders

MIKE G. MORREALE

1. New York Rangers; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Colorado Avalanche; 4. Carolina Hurricanes; 5. Vancouver Canucks; 6. Boston Bruins; 7. Florida Panthers; 8. Edmonton Oilers; 9. Toronto Maple Leafs; 10. Vegas Golden Knights; 11. Nashville Predators; 12. Winnipeg Jets; 13. Tampa Bay Lightning; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. St. Louis Blues; 16. Minnesota Wild

TRACEY MYERS

1. New York Rangers; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Boston Bruins; 4. Carolina Hurricanes; 5. Colorado Avalanche; 6. Florida Panthers; 7. Vancouver Canucks; 8. Toronto Maple Leafs; 9. Edmonton Oilers; 10. Winnipeg Jets; 11. Vegas Golden Knights; 12. Tampa Bay Lightning; 13. Nashville Predators; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. Philadelphia Flyers; 16. Washington Capitals

BILL PRICE

1. New York Rangers; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Boston Bruins; 4. Vancouver Canucks; 5. Carolina Hurricanes; 6. Colorado Avalanche; 7. Florida Panthers; 8. Edmonton Oilers; 9. Winnipeg Jets; 10. Toronto Maple Leafs; 11. Nashville Predators; 12. Vegas Golden Knights; 13. Tampa Bay Lightning; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. Philadelphia Flyers; 16. Washington Capitals

SHAWN P. ROARKE

1. Colorado Avalanche; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Carolina Hurricanes; 4. New York Rangers; 5. Florida Panthers; 6. Boston Bruins; 7. Nashville Predators; 8. Vancouver Canucks; 9. Edmonton Oilers; 10. Tampa Bay Lightning; 11. Winnipeg Jets; 12. Toronto Maple Leafs; 13. Vegas Golden Knights; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. St. Louis Blues; 16. Pittsburgh Penguins

DAN ROSEN

1. Dallas Stars; 2. Colorado Avalanche; 3. New York Rangers; 4. Carolina Hurricanes; 5. Edmonton Oilers; 6. Boston Bruins; 7. Vegas Golden Knights; 8. Toronto Maple Leafs; 9. Tampa Bay Lightning; 10. Vancouver Canucks; 11. Florida Panthers; 12. Winnipeg Jets; 13. Nashville Predators; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. St. Louis Blues; 16. Pittsburgh Penguins

DAVID SATRIANO

1. New York Rangers; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Boston Bruins; 4. Vancouver Canucks; 5. Carolina Hurricanes; 6. Colorado Avalanche; 7. Florida Panthers; 8. Winnipeg Jets; 9. Edmonton Oilers; 10. Toronto Maple Leafs; 11. Vegas Golden Knights; 12. Nashville Predators; 13. Tampa Bay Lightning; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. St. Louis Blues; 16. New York Islanders

DEREK VAN DIEST

1. New York Rangers; 2. Dallas Stars; 3. Boston Bruins; 4. Vancouver Canucks; 5. Edmonton Oilers; 6. Florida Panthers; 7. Colorado Avalanche; 8. Carolina Hurricanes; 9. Nashville Predators; 10. Winnipeg Jets; 11. Toronto Maple Leafs; 12. Vegas Golden Knights; 13. Tampa Bay Lightning; 14. Los Angeles Kings; 15. Washington Capitals; 16. Detroit Red Wings