State Your Case: Canadiens-Lightning Game 7 winner

The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning will play Game 7 of the Eastern Conference First Round at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday (6 p.m. ET; The Spot, HBO MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS, CBC), and if the deciding game is anything close to the first six of this series, it will be an all-time epic. 

The Atlantic Division rivals have slugged it out over the first six games, with four of the games going to overtime. The other two games were decided by one goal as well.

There have been dramatic goals, saves and lots of rough stuff. 

This will be the first Game 7 between the Lightning and Canadiens and the 129th unique Game 7 matchup in Stanley Cup Playoffs history. 

But who will win and why? We posed those questions to NHL.com writers and editors in this edition of State Your Case (in alphabetical order by staffer):

Lightning 3, Canadiens 1: I picked Tampa Bay to make the Stanley Cup Final and I can’t give up my pick now. Though I’d love to see Montreal make a run, I’ve definitely learned my lesson about picking against teams from the state of Florida lately. Add in the Lightning are riding the momentum of their overtime win in Game 6, they’re home at Benchmark International Arena and their players are battle-tested in the toughest of games, and I think Tampa 
Bay squeezes it it out, plus an empty netter. -- Amalie Benjamin, senior writer

Lightning 4, Canadiens 2: This series reminds me of the one I just covered between the Utah Mammoth and the Vegas Golden Knights. Here is a young, up-and-coming team against a veteran team that has been there, won that. The young team takes the lead. The veteran team comes back. In the end, the Golden Knights’ experience helped them come through at crunch time. I’m betting the same will happen with the Lightning. They win a one-goal game and tack on an empty-net goal. -- Nicholas J. Cotsonika, columnist

Canadiens 2, Lightning 1 (OT): Wow, was Game 6 an amazing hockey game or what? Well, I think Game 7 will be just as incredible, with the Canadiens pulling this one out (I mean, I picked them to win the series anyway, so I’m sticking with it). I just think there’s a little less pressure on Montreal on the road than there is at Bell Centre, as exciting as that arena can be for all involved. I also just believe it’s the Canadiens’ time to break through in the postseason. Last year, they got a taste of it. Now they know the ups and downs of a series and are going to respond after a tough tussle in Game 6. -- Tracey Myers, staff writer

Lightning 3, Canadiens 2 (3OT): That’s right, I said it, triple-overtime, because three more periods is not going to be enough to decide this epic game and epic series. I pick Tampa Bay because of the way goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy played in goal in Game 6. He was amazing, showing the form that made him a back-to-back Stanley Cup winner in 2020 and 2021, and I expect that to continue in Game 7. This game could come to which all-world talent goal-scoring forward gets it done between Nikita Kucherov of the Lightning or Cole Caufield of the Canadiens. But in games like these, it’s usually gritty, gutty players like forwards Nick Paul (Lightning) or Brendan Gallagher (Canadiens) who play hero. -- Bill Price, Editor-in-Chief 

Lightning 3, Canadiens 1: Montreal had its chance to win this series and squandered it with an overtime loss in Game 6. It had an aging heavyweight champion on the ropes but couldn’t score the knockout. Now, the battle-hardened vets from the Lightning, before a home crowd, step to the fore. Expect Kucherov, Vasilevskiy, forward Brandon Hagel and coach Jon Cooper to have their fingers all over this win. -- Shawn P. Roarke, senior director of editorial 

Canadiens 3, Lightning 2: The Canadiens are due a fortunate bounce, which is why they’re going to win Game 7. In a series this tight, it’s going to take a fortunate break to separate the two teams. Tampa Bay got its share in a 1-0 overtime win in Game 6 and now it’s Montreal’s turn to have the puck bounce its way. Each team has alternated winning games in the series, and I believe the trend continues in Game 7. The Canadiens will win the wildly entertaining series between two excellent teams. -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer 

Lightning 2, Canadiens 1 (OT): For someone who’s been covering this epic first-round matchup, how do you pick between teams that had the same number of points during the regular season (106), have played four overtime games in this series, have each scored 14 goals and are both 2-1 on the road? It might be easier to figure out how to get blood from a stone. I’m going with Tampa Bay because I picked the Lightning before the playoffs to win this series and go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. That’s the only reason. No scientific research. No analytical explanation. And after watching these young Canadiens, they have shown absolutely no fear of the big moments and could win. For that to happen, it’s time for Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky, members of Montreal’s top line who have each yet to score an even strength goal in the series, to step up. In the end, I’ll go with the Lightning's Hagel, who has six goals in the series, to score the OT winner. Whoever wins, thanks to these two teams for the epic show. -- Mike Zeisberger, staff writer