The Senators know the odds are long, but the series shifts to Ottawa for Game 3 at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET; CBC, TVAS, SN, TBS, FDSNSO, HBO MAX).
In the history of the best-of-7 format in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, teams that take a 2-0 lead in the series are 360-58 (.861). When the home team wins the first two games, it advances 88.2 percent of the time (270-36).
But the Senators have been overcoming long odds all season, riding a roller coaster that would have derailed most teams.
Linus Ullmark, their starting goalie, was away from the team for a little more than a month for personal reasons. Coming out of the break for the 2026 Winter Olympics in February, they had 64 points, seven behind the Boston Bruins for the second wild card in the East and needing to climb past three teams to get in the playoff picture. They also had to gain that ground with a decimated blue line, sometimes playing without any of their top three defensemen. All told, they dressed 13 defensemen this season, a severe referendum on their depth.
Yet, they went 16-5-4, their .720 points percentage fourth-best in the League from Feb. 26 until the end of the regular season.
“Obviously, it’s a long series, best-of-7,” Ottawa defenseman Jake Sanderson said. “Obviously, you can’t get down, you can’t get too negative.”
There are lots of positives for the Senators heading into Game 3. On repeated occasions, coach Travis Green said they played a “hell of a game” Monday. They attacked more relentlessly, defended while under duress and received elite goaltending.
Usually that is a recipe for success, but the playoffs are not about justice.
“Those are hard games to lose, and that's OK,” Green said. “That's part of it. When you're playing for something as prestigious as the Stanley Cup, when you lose a game like that, it hurts, and it should hurt.
“We've got a couple days to regroup not just physically, but mentally as well. After losing a game like that, I think that's going to be important. And you know, I think we played better the second game and we're going to play better again."