Mailbag: Hart Trophy sleepers, surprise rookies

Here is the Sept. 26 edition of Dan Rosen's weekly mailbag, which runs every Wednesday. If you have a question, tweet it to @drosennhl and use #OvertheBoards.

Which Stanley Cup Playoff team last season will regress the most this coming year? -- @bloodfury_96
All of us at NHL.com sent in our season predictions earlier this week. We picked the top three teams in each division, the two wild card teams in each conference, the teams who will play in the Stanley Cup Final, the Cup winner and the Conn Smythe Trophy winner. It runs Monday. I predicted 13 of the 16 teams that made it last season to make it again this season. I think the Minnesota Wild, Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets will miss the playoffs in favor of the St. Louis Blues, Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers. It's not so much that I think the Wild, Ducks and Blue Jackets will have major regressions this season; it's more that I think the Blues, Stars and Panthers will show a lot of progression.
The Panthers added the potential for 25 or more goals by trading for forward Mike Hoffman. They were 11th in goals (152) and fourth in points (67) from Dec. 19 to the end of season. Their big problem last season was their 12-16-5 start under first-year coach Bob Boughner. It was to be expected because Boughner revamped all their systems and because goalie Roberto Luongo missed 15 of those first 33 games with injuries. The Panthers took off once they got comfortable with the systems. Luongo returned in February and was one of the best goalies in the NHL in the final quarter of the season, going 12-5-1 with a .930 save percentage and 2.36 goals-against average in his last 20 games. The Panthers missed the playoffs by one point. They'll pick up where they left off.
I have mentioned in previous mailbags how much I like what the Blues did to beef up their center depth with the additions of Ryan O'Reilly and Tyler Bozak to join Brayden Schenn and, in all likelihood, rookie Robert Thomas, who could progress quickly out of a fourth line role, pushing one of the other three centers to the wing. Blues goalie Jake Allen must deliver. He doesn't have Carter Hutton as a safety valve. Hutton was so good last season as Allen's backup he's now the No. 1 on a three-year contract with the Buffalo Sabres. Allen's backup will likely be Chad Johnson. Allen can be a top 10 or top 15 goalie. He has been in the past.

The Stars have more ifs. I'm banking on forward Jason Spezza bouncing back from last season when he had 26 points in 78 games, forward Valeri Nichushkin making an impact in a top-six role in his first season back from Russia's Kontinental Hockey League, and Miro Heiskanen proving to be a top-four defenseman and power-play threat by at least U.S. Thanksgiving, if not Christmas. If it all happens, the Stars will have enough depth, balance and quality goaltending to get into the playoffs.
Which rookie who isn't already receiving a lot of attention will come out of nowhere and surprise us all? -- @hockeyonthehor1
Edmonton Oilers right wing Kailer Yamamoto has a chance to put up good numbers if he makes the team. It looks like forward Ty Rattie leads the race to play with center Connor McDavid, but Yamamoto could land on Leon Draisaitl's wing, and that's a good place to be too. Yamamoto had three assists in nine games with the Oilers last season and 64 points (21 goals, 43 assists) in 40 games with Spokane of the Western Hockey League. Yamamoto is an all-situations player and has impressed in camp.
Carter Hart is considered the Philadelphia Flyers' goalie of the future, but his future might be in Philadelphia to start the season if Michal Neuvirth isn't healthy enough to play. Anthony Stolarz could get that nod, pushing Hart into the American Hockey League. However, if Hart gets a chance early, he could impress enough to stay, forcing the Flyers to move on from either Neuvirth or Brian Elliott.

Who is your dark horse Hart Trophy candidate this season? -- @TJRinger1
Mark Scheifele. The Winnipeg Jets center could be the NHL's next 100-point player. He's been solid as a point-per-game player the past two seasons (142 points in 139 games), but the Jets are better now. He has Blake Wheeler on his right wing at even strength and Patrik Laine joins them on the power play. Scheifele scored 14 goals in 17 Stanley Cup Playoff games last season. The potential is there for him to beef up his production, especially because the Jets should have the puck a lot. If he gets close to 100 points, he'll be a Hart Trophy candidate.

Who makes the Blues roster this year given the tight race between Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Sammy Blais along with the return of Robbi Fabbri? -- @bdegs74
Kyrou and Blais, each a forward, have been good enough this preseason to create some difficult decisions for general manager Doug Armstrong and coach Mike Yeo. Thomas seems to have the No. 4 center job locked down. Fabbri, also a forward, sustained a grade 1 groin strain Sunday. He's considered day to day. After asking around to people close with the Blues, considering Fabbri's injury, the best guess is that either Blais or Kyrou makes it and the other goes to the American Hockey League. Both could start in the AHL if Fabbri is healthy in time for the start of the NHL season next week.
What do you expect from the Buffalo Sabres? -- @CZ_Phil93
Better. That's not a bold prediction after they finished last in the NHL with 62 points last season. They can't be much worse. It's too soon to say they will be a playoff contender come late March/early April, but it's more realistic to think it's possible now than it has been in the past several seasons. They'll need a lot to break their way. If Hutton proves he's a legit No. 1 goalie, they'll have a chance. He played 32 games last season with the Blues but led the NHL in GAA (2.09) and save percentage (.931) among goalies who played at least 30 games. If defenseman Rasmus Dahlin doesn't need much time to adjust and plays like the Calder Trophy candidate he should be, they'll have a chance. They must score more than last season, when they finished last in the NHL with 198 goals, which means forwards Jeff Skinner, Conor Sheary and Patrik Berglund must produce, and center Casey Mittelstadt has to make a seamless adjustment to the NHL. He was playing high school hockey in Minnesota last year. The Sabres should be deeper, more explosive, better defensively and in net, an all-around tougher opponent. If I were a Sabres fan, I'd be getting excited, but tempering that with realistic expectations.

Do you ever see Elias Pettersson being a potential 100-point player down the road with the Vancouver Canucks? What are your expectations for the Canucks this year? -- @xBraedenn
Slow down on Pettersson. Let's let the rookie center, who is 19, get his first NHL point before we start analyzing the potential for him to be a 100-point player. There have been eight 100-point scorers in the past eight seasons, including three last season (McDavid 108, Philadelphia Flyers forward Claude Giroux 102, Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov 100). Recently retired Canucks Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin hit the mark once each in their careers. It's rare.
As for the Canucks, my expectations are low, as in last in the Pacific Division. They have too many holes and questions for me to buy into them as a contender. However, with forward Brock Boeser back healthy; Pettersson wowing in the middle; defenseman Quintin Hughes coming next season; other young players joining the mix this season, possibly including 20-year-old defenseman Olli Juolevi; and the chance (likelihood?) for another high NHL Draft pick next year, there should be reason for optimism that better days are ahead. They're not here yet.
Have we seen the last of Jaromir Jagr in the NHL? -- @briantodd34
Unfortunately, I think the answer is yes. The speed of the NHL and Jagr's age (46) caught up to him last season, when the forward tried to make another go of it with the Calgary Flames. He had seven points (one goal, six assists) in 22 games and couldn't continue because of a knee injury. He can play until he's 50, but for his hometown team Kladno in the Czech Republic.