17 NHL predictions for 2017

A new year nearly is here, the dawn of 2017, and with it comes opportunity across the NHL. Opportunity for a new champion, new trophy winners, new homes for many players, and a new team in a new market.
So much is waiting to happen, but you don't have to wait to find out what it will be and why. Here are 17 mostly realistic and occasionally wacky predictions for what will happen around the NHL in 2017.

Note that these are only predictions, and though the author takes them seriously, he also decrees no one is allowed to hold him accountable if they do not come true.

1. The Toronto Maple Leafs will make the Stanley Cup Playoffs

The feeling around the Maple Leafs has changed drastically, with rookies Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander already proving how dominant and explosive they can be. The Maple Leafs have overcome their early-season issues, including the struggles of goalie Frederik Andersen. They continue to improve as a team and slowly prove they are for real with balanced scoring, a better-than-expected defense, quality goaltending and excellent coaching. Example: They have won three consecutive road games to move within three points of a playoff berth entering play Thursday. They will battle with the Ottawa Senators, Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers for two or three playoff spots. Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Andersen will continue to play well, and Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Morgan Rielly will give the Maple Leafs balance to win enough games so they can shock the hockey world by qualifying for the postseason.

2. Auston Matthews will win the Calder Trophy

Toronto's second-half surge will happen in large part because of continued production from Matthews, who has 11 goals in the past 15 games. He will emerge among several deserving candidates to win the Calder Trophy as the top rookie in the NHL. Matthews scored his 17th goal of the season Wednesday, closing within two goals of Patrik Laine of the Winnipeg Jets for the rookie lead. Matthews also was two points shy of Laine's lead despite playing three fewer games. Matthews took a while to figure out how to be a dominant center, but he got there and he'll have an even better second half. Laine likely will continue to score too, but Matthews will get the Toronto nudge to win it.

3. Connor McDavid will win the Art Ross Trophy

McDavid, the Edmonton Oilers captain, and Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby were tied with 42 points going into Thursday. It will stay neck and neck, but eventually Crosby's goal scoring will slow down (he has scored in five straight and leads the NHL with 26 in 31 games). When it does, McDavid will have just enough to pull away, potentially winning the scoring title April 9, the last day of the regular season, when the Oilers and Penguins each are in action.

4. Sidney Crosby will win the Hart Trophy and the Rocket Richard Trophy

McDavid will win the scoring title, but Crosby will lead the Penguins to the Presidents' Trophy and lead the NHL in goals. Being the Rocket Richard Trophy winner, the runner-up in the Art Ross Trophy race and the leading scorer on best team in the League will be enough to get him the votes to win the Hart Trophy for the third time.

5. Devan Dubnyk will win the Vezina Trophy

Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price is getting all the hype for the Vezina Trophy, and at least before Crosby climbed up the scoring charts for the Hart Trophy too. But Dubnyk, of the Minnesota Wild, is putting together an even better season than Price. He entered the Wild's game against the New York Islanders on Thursday with 18 wins, a .947 save percentage, 1.58 goals-against average and five shutouts. He led all No. 1 goalies in the League in save percentage, GAA and shutouts. Price has 18 wins, a .931 save percentage, a 1.99 GAA and two shutouts. Dubnyk played 95 more minutes and faced 74 more shots than Price but had allowed eight fewer goals. He will keep it up.

6. Ben Bishop will be traded by the Tampa Bay Lightning …

A lower-body injury for Bishop, the Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender, along with the expectation Andrei Vasilevskiy will prove himself as a No. 1 goalie in the next 3-4 weeks, should be enough to jolt general manager Steve Yzerman into trading Bishop before the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline on March 1. Bishop will be an unrestricted free agent after the season and his future is not in Tampa Bay. His likely destination: Dallas. Stars GM Jim Nill will move one of his goaltenders, Antti Niemi or Kari Lehtonen, to make room for Bishop to help Dallas make a last-ditch playoff push and give the Stars the inside edge to sign Bishop before July 1.

7. … and will sign with the Dallas Stars

Dallas is the best landing spot for a goalie who wants to compete for a Stanley Cup. Bishop will enjoy his time in Dallas when he gets traded there in February, and will agree to stay on a three-year contract. Dallas will unload one of its current goalies through a trade or a buyout. Nill might have to throw in a fourth year to entice Bishop to sign before he can become an unrestricted free agent, but the goaltender will end up in Dallas.

8. Marc-Andre Fleury will not be traded by the Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins will keep Fleury instead of trading him because they learned last season how valuable it is to have at least two No. 1 goalies. Fleury has picked up his game recently, a good sign considering Matt Murray will is considered week to week because of a lower-body injury. The Penguins will keep Murray and Fleury and make other plans for the expansion draft.

9. Speaking of which, Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his no-movement clause to be exposed to the Vegas Golden Knights

Fleury, 32, will agree to waive his no-movement clause prior to the expansion draft so he can be available to the Golden Knights. However, they will not pick him because it will want to go younger at the position.

10. Semyon Varlamov will be the No. 1 goalie in Vegas

If the Colorado Avalanche are rebuilding, it makes no sense to have a 28-year-old goalie making $5.9 million per season. Varlamov will be left unprotected for the expansion draft and Vegas GM George McPhee will pick him. McPhee drafted Varlamov when he was the GM with the Washington Capitals. He also traded Varlamov to Colorado. Varlamov came up under former Washington goalie coach Dave Prior, who is Vegas' goalie coach.

11. The Vegas Golden Knights will have players before the Expansion Draft

The NHL Expansion Draft will not be the first time Vegas acquires players. McPhee will be allowed to sign college free agents and make trades prior to the expansion draft. The exact date when he will be allowed to start that process is unclear, but McPhee said he will be able to do so before the results of the expansion draft are announced June 21. He will have draft picks and future assets available in any potential trade.

12. The NHL and NHLPA will agree to participate in the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics

This will come down to the wire because deadlines drive decisions, but at some point in January, perhaps around All-Star Weekend in Los Angeles, the NHL and NHLPA will announce NHL players will be going to the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics, even though the current signs point in the other direction.
Olympic participation never has driven the League's bottom line, but a huge, important and realistic component to this difficult decision is if the League can get the NHLPA to agree to a broader international schedule, the Olympics will be included. It makes sense for the NHLPA because of the impact the global game can have on marketing and promotion of the players, not to mention the national pride that comes with it.
It would benefit the NHL and NHLPA if the decision to attend the Olympics and create a broader international schedule includes extra years tacked on to the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. As NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman has said, it is important to have guaranteed labor peace at a time when both parties want to expand the game globally.

13. The Detroit Red Wings' playoff streak will end

The Detroit Red Wings' streak of consecutive seasons in the playoffs will end at 25. They entered Thursday six points out of a playoff spot and last in the Atlantic Division. The Red Wings will start looking toward the future around the trade deadline, when they determine the playoff streak isn't worth fighting for if it means more seasons of slightly above average play, just good enough to stay on the playoff bubble but not good enough to win the Stanley Cup. Look for defenseman Mike Green, goaltender Jimmy Howard and potentially more Red Wings veterans to be on the trading block this season.

14. John Tavares will enter next season without a new contract

The New York Islanders need to do whatever they can to get Tavares, their captain, signed to a new contract July 1 or shortly thereafter in order to avoid the trade talk next season that will surround Tavares, who can be an unrestricted free agent after the 2017-18 season. Tavares, known to be fiercely loyal, won't do himself any favors if he signs without assurances on the Islanders' coaching, goaltending and arena situation. The Islanders may be able to iron out some of those issues before July 1, but Tavares will be smart and play at least part of next season before signing in order to see if he likes the direction of the franchise and wants to commit what would be the rest of his prime years to it. He might not want to do that, in which case the Islanders would have to seriously consider trading him.

15. Kevin Shattenkirk will sign with the New York Rangers

Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk may play out the season with the St. Louis Blues, especially if they think they can contend for the Stanley Cup, but he will sign with the Rangers as an unrestricted free agent on July 1. The Rangers need a right-handed, puck-moving defenseman in the worst way. Shattenkirk would pair perfectly with Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal or Brady Skjei. The Rangers will trade either Derek Stepan or Rick Nash to free up the salary cap space to sign Shattenkirk. If they trade Stepan, Mika Zibanejad and Kevin Hayes would be their top two centers and J.T. Miller could slide in as the No. 3. Stepan is a more valuable trade commodity because he's younger (26) and signed for four more seasons with a $6.5 million cap charge. Nash (32) is signed through next season at a $7.8 million cap charge.

16. The Pittsburgh Penguins will go back to the Stanley Cup Final

The 2016 Stanley Cup champions will get a chance to defend their title because they're still loaded with depth and backed by excellent goaltending. Provided they're healthy, they are the best team in the Eastern Conference and arguably the entire League.

17. The Chicago Blackhawks will win the Stanley Cup

Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman doesn't have to tinker too much at the deadline this season, but he will acquire a depth defenseman and likely a depth forward. Jonathan Toews will find his scoring touch. Marian Hossa will keep scoring. Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane and Artem Anisimov will continue to dazzle as a line. Marcus Kruger, Ryan Hartman, Tyler Motte and Dennis Rasmussen will continue to give the Blackhawks solid minutes. Defensemen Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook and Brian Campbell will drive them from the back end, and goaltender Corey Crawford will play like an MVP in the second half and through the playoffs.
Chicago will win the Cup for the fourth time in eight seasons, and Crawford will win the Conn Smythe Trophy.