Mailbag: Deadline rumblings for Maple Leafs, Predators, Penguins 

Here is the Feb. 28 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Will the Maple Leafs trade Martin Jones and use those assets as part of the package to get a decent defenseman? -- @bobbt91

The Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn't deal Jones ahead of the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, which is 3 p.m. ET on March 8, unless the asset coming back is too good to be true, which is in line with at least a third-round pick for a goalie like him. That seems unlikely. It's more likely that the return for the 34-year-old would be a late-round pick, which isn't a significant enough asset to justify depleting Toronto's goaltending depth.

Sean Walker of the Philadelphia Flyers, Mathew Dumba of the Arizona Coyotes and Ilya Lyubushkin of the Anaheim Ducks are options at defenseman. The Maple Leafs might be able to keep their first-round pick in trades for any of them, but they do not have a second-round pick, which affects their ability to make a move for an impact player without trading away their first-round pick. Because Toronto won't get a second- or third-round pick, and probably not even a fourth-round pick for Jones, it makes more sense to keep him and waive a forward to stay compliant under the NHL salary cap after trading the first-round pick to get a defenseman.

Jones was a big part of the Maple Leafs' success in December and January, when Ilya Samsonov was struggling and Joseph Woll was out. Woll is back, and Samsonov has gotten his game together to be Toronto's No. 1 right now, so it's possible Jones would be scratched more than he dresses down the stretch. But Samsonov and Woll are far from guarantees, especially when Toronto gets to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so it's better to have a veteran goalie waiting in the wings as a luxury.

The Vegas Golden Knights showed everyone last season how valuable goaltending depth can be down the stretch of the regular season and the Stanley Cup Playoffs when they had to go to their third-string goalie in Adin Hill to win the Cup.

Red Wings deep playoff run, yes or no? -- @The_Mexinadian

Not out of the question, but as of this point it has to be no.

The Detroit Red Wings are not yet one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. There are questions in goal, on defense and with their overall team speed. Teams need to be better than their opponents in all three areas to survive a seven-game series. The Red Wings are not quite ready to go toe to toe with the likes of the Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes or Maple Leafs. Those are the five teams ahead of them in the Eastern Conference standings and Detroit is a combined 3-8-0 with a minus-7 goal differential against them. It's hard to see the Red Wings climbing into the top three in the Atlantic Division, which means they're going to play a division winner in the Eastern Conference First Round. That could be the Panthers, Bruins, Rangers or Hurricanes. Could they have a Seattle Kraken-like run last season, pulling an upset in the first round before losing in the second? Yes. Is that a deep playoff run? No.

Penguins have to trade Jake Guentzel, right? If he was going to re-sign at their price he would have by now. They can't afford to let him walk for nothing. What gives other than his current injury? Does Kyle Dubas actually think this team can compete? Waiting for the right price? -- @bmalandra

It's not about would Guentzel have re-signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins at their price. It's about should they even put a price on re-signing the 29-year-old forward? He's a terrific player, a shooter and goal-scorer who has fit perfectly with Sidney Crosby for seven years, but that's not what this is about for the Penguins anymore. They need to get younger and trading Guentzel is a gateway to doing that. They're not going to trade Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang or Erik Karlsson, so it's Guentzel and the time is now since he's a pending unrestricted free agent. 

The fact is the Penguins are not going to be any closer to being a Stanley Cup contender again if Guentzel re-signs for one, two, three, four or however many years up to eight. They missed the playoffs last season with him. They added Karlsson in the offseason and are in line to miss the playoffs again despite Guentzel's 52 points (22 goals, 30 assists) in 50 games. Even if they play their way closer to a postseason position, it's a big risk to keep Guentzel beyond the deadline. They could not qualify and then lose him for nothing in the offseason. They could make it and lose in the first round, and then lose him for nothing. They could re-sign him and be in the exact same predicament next season. 

Guentzel is not the Penguins' problem but using him as a trade asset can help them get closer to a solution for down the road.

The Predators right now sit in the second wild-card spot. They have a lot of draft picks. Does that change Barry Trotz's mind on how they approach the deadline? -- @punmasterrifkin

Buy. Buy. Buy. And do not trade Juuse Saros. Unless (read on).

Not only do the Nashville Predators have salary cap space this season, but they also have, as you referenced, a lot of draft picks, including four combined in the first round in the next three drafts. One of their 11 picks in the 2024 NHL Draft is a first-round pick. They have three in the second, two in the third and three in the fourth. On top of that they have five first-round picks playing in the American Hockey League with the Milwaukee Admirals; Joakim Kemell (2022), Fedor Svechkov and Zachary L'Herueux (2021), Yaroslav Askarov (2020) and Phillip Tomasino (2019). They have enough space, prospects and picks to be buyers before the deadline without making any real significant impact on their future. They've also won six in a row and are looking more and more like a playoff team each day. They're a team that should be after Guentzel. They need more offense in their top six and they have what the Penguins want.

Of course, all this changes if the Predators, in fact, do trade Saros. The goalie is having a down season by his Vezina Trophy-like standards, although he's been much better of late. It's not enough to convince me to think they should trade him. Askarov is 21-7-1 with a 2.11 goals-against average, .920 save percentage and five shutouts for Milwaukee. He's close, if not ready, for the NHL, but Saros is here now, he's one of the best in the NHL and the Predators have him. The only way you trade Saros is if the return is impossible to reject. If that happens, you're putting your playoff hopes in the pads, blocker and glove of a 21-year-old rookie. It's asking a lot for a team that deserves the best chance to compete this season by the way they've played.

The return for trading Saros in the offseason will be less than what they could get for him now because a team acquiring him before the Deadline could get two playoff runs out of him instead of one. Saros is signed through next season with a $5 million average annual value, so it's understandable why the Predators would be willing to listen, but maybe they're capable of becoming a Cup contender with him. Then they can figure out what to do in the offseason.

Who are you liking for coach of the year front-runners? -- @MrEd315

It's hard to argue against Rick Tocchet and everything he's done with the Vancouver Canucks, instilling a style of play and a belief system that could lead to a Presidents' Trophy this season. But if the Flyers make the playoffs, how could anyone win the Jack Adams Award ahead of John Tortorella? The Canucks are overachieving based on preseason expectations, but I picked them to make the playoffs and know I wasn't alone.

The Flyers had zero preseason expectations. There was almost no thought of them making the playoffs. Tortorella, though, has them playing a hard, physical, grinding style on a nightly basis. They've withstood injuries and adversity, including No. 1 goalie Carter Hart taking an indefinite leave of absence, and now they're dealing with the deadline, which has the potential to ravage their defense if Walker and Nick Seeler are traded.

If Philadelphia makes the playoffs through all of that, without a point-per-game player or a proven No. 1 goalie and with the worst power play, but while being one of the best in the NHL at penalty-killing, Tortorella will have earned the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year this season.