NHL EDGE stats for Lightning-Canadiens Game 7

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide three underlying metrics to watch for in Game 7 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday (6 p.m. ET; The Spot, HBO MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS, CBC).

1. Lightning’s possession metrics

This best-of-7 series has been extremely close through the first six games: the score has been tied or within one goal for 98.5 percent of the total playing time (379:45 of 385:22). The goals in the series are 14-14 at all strengths and 9-9 at 5-on-5. The score has been tied for 66 percent of the total playing time, while Montreal has led for 27 percent of the series and Tampa Bay for only 7 percent.

Each of the six games have been decided by one goal, and four of the six games have gone to overtime. Each team has won two overtime games in the series, and the Lightning forced Game 7 after Gage Goncalves scored the lone goal of Game 6 in overtime.

One area of advantage in this tight series has been Tampa Bay’s performance in key possession metrics. The Lightning have a better offensive zone time percentage (43.1) than the Canadiens (39.2), while Tampa Bay has an edge in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (54.4) compared to Montreal (45.6). In terms of offensive zone time percentage, Lightning forwards Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov rank first (52.0) and second (51.1), respectively, this postseason. Tampa Bay defenseman Darren Raddysh ranks second among defensemen in offensive zone time percentage (50.6) during the playoffs and led the entire NHL in 90-plus mph shot attempts during the regular season (97).

Montreal, meanwhile, has a slight lead in high-danger goals by a 7-6 margin in this series. Tampa Bay forward Brandon Hagel leads the entire NHL in high-danger goals (four) this postseason, while Montreal’s leader in that category is forward Josh Anderson (two).

2. Canadiens’ goals off the rush

The teams have been fairly even in terms of skating speed during their series; in terms of 20-plus mph speed bursts, Tampa Bay is leading by a margin of 136-127. But the Canadiens have been much more successful than the Lightning in their transition opportunities.

Per NHL EDGE IQ, Montreal has been stronger off the rush than Tampa Bay; goals off the rush are defined as goals that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line. Montreal has scored five goals on 17 high-probability shot attempts (greater than 12 percent Projected Goal Rate) off the rush, while Tampa Bay has scored two goals on 11 high-probability shot attempts. Canadiens forward Alexandre Texier has scored both of his goals off the rush this postseason.

That said, both teams feature plenty of elite offensive talent that can finish in any situations: Kucherov ranked second in the NHL in points (130) this regular season, while Tampa Bay had three 30-goal scorers in Kucherov, Hagel and Jake Guentzel. Montreal also had a 100-point scorer in captain Nick Suzuki (101; sixth in NHL), as well as a 50-goal scorer in Cole Caufield (51; second behind Nathan MacKinnon’s 53). The Canadiens’ other 30-goal scorer was Juraj Slafkovsky, who scored a hat trick and the overtime goal in Game 1 against the Lightning.

3. Dobes’ save percentage metrics

Although Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is a two-time Stanley Cup champion (2020, 2021) and past Vezina Trophy winner (2019; also a finalist for award this year), Canadiens rookie Jakub Dobes has outperformed his elite opponent in this series.

Dobes has a better 5-on-5 save percentage in this series (.921) compared to Vasilevskiy (.912). Dobes also has a better 5-on-5 save percentage in close situations (.921) than Vasilevskiy (.907), meaning when games are tied in the first or second period or within one goal in the third period.

Vasilevskiy has had the edge in terms of high-danger save percentage (.854) compared to Dobes (.829) during this series, but Vasilevskiy has been much better in that category over his three wins (.880) compared to his three losses (.826). It’s also worth noting Vasilevskiy and Tampa Bay have played the entire series without injured Victor Hedman, who’s the team’s No. 1 defenseman.

Montreal has also been without one of its top defensemen, Noah Dobson, all series because of injury. Another potential difference-maker for the Canadiens in Game 7 is Lane Hutson, who scored the overtime goal in Game 3 on what was the second-hardest shot attempt of his NHL career (90.08). Hutson has taken on a bigger role with Dobson out and is tied with Sebastian Aho of the Carolina Hurricanes for the most long-range goals in the NHL this postseason (two each). Hutson ranked ninth among defensemen in 20-plus mph speed bursts (​​141) during the regular season and also excelled in max skating speed, midrange and long-range shots on goal.