NHL EDGE stats: Jordan Staal’s case for Conn Smythe Trophy in 2026

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down key advanced stats behind Carolina Hurricanes forward Jordan Staal’s success in the 2026 Stanley Cup Final.

Watch Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Hurricanes and Golden Knights on Sunday (8 p.m. ET; ABC, SN, TVAS, CBC). Carolina leads the best-of-7 series 3-2.

1. High-danger offense

Jordan Staal has emerged as the front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy, the annual award given to the most valuable player to his team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He has tied the NHL record for longest goal streak in a Stanley Cup Final (five games), becoming the fifth player ever to accomplish that feat; the others were Yvan Cournoyer (1973), Jean Beliveau (1956), Maurice Richard (1951) and Cyclone Taylor (1918).

Staal, who’s the Hurricanes captain and won the Stanley Cup with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2009, leads the Cup Final series in both high-danger goals (five) and high-danger shots on goal (13). Staal, who’s 37 years old and has been a versatile third-liner for much of his 14 seasons with Carolina, has not had a five-game goal streak since 2007, when he was 18 years old and playing for the Penguins.

Staal’s versatility has allowed him to fit in seamlessly on a new line with Seth Jarvis and Nikolaj Ehlers and also be a difference-maker on the first power-play unit against the Vegas Golden Knights in the Cup Final. He scored two goals in Game 4 at Vegas, both coming from high-danger zones, and became the third-oldest player (37 years, 272 days) to record a multigoal game in the Cup Final (others: Mark Recchi at 43 years, 125 days in 2011; Igor Larionov at 41 years, 187 days in 2002). Seven of Staal’s eight goals this postseason have been high-danger goals, and five of his six goals in the Cup Final have been high-danger goals.

*NHL EDGE IQ insights: Staal leads all players in scoring chances (18) through the first five games of the Stanley Cup Final. Scoring chances are defined as inferenced shot attempts with a “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) greater than or equal to 5.0 percent; inferenced shot attempts exclude those taken from outside of 60 feet, beyond the goal line and on an empty net.

Of those 18 scoring chances, four resulted in a goal, nine forced Golden Knights goalie Carter Hart to make a save, and the other five were either blocked (four) or missed the net (one).*

2. Power-play impact

Staal has played a prime role in the Hurricanes’ power-play success during the Cup Final; Carolina is 6-for-16 (37.5 percent) with the man advantage in the series, significantly outperforming Vegas (2-for-15; 13.3 percent). Staal ranks second in the Cup Final in power-play goals (two; behind Andrei Svechnikov’s three), is tied for third in power-play points (three; behind Shayne Gostisbehere’s five, Svechnikov’s four) and leads the series in shots on goal overall (17 in five games).

This is a significant uptick in power-play production compared to this regular season, when Staal had four power-play goals and no power-play assists in 75 games playing mostly on the second unit when given those opportunities. Over the past four regular seasons combined, Staal, who was not always on one of Carolina’s power-play units in recent seasons, only had a combined five power-play points (four goals, one assist) over the past four regular seasons combined (no power-play points in 2024-25 or 2022-23). Over those past four regular seasons combined, Staal had nine shorthanded points (four goals, five assists) and was more known as a fixture on Carolina’s top penalty kill unit.

It’s also worth noting the Hurricanes’ power play was not a strong point of the team over the first three rounds, when they went 12-1 to start the postseason; Carolina’s power-play percentages in each previous round were 13.3 against Ottawa Senators, 13.6 against Philadelphia Flyers and 10.5 against Montreal Canadiens for an average of 12.5.

3. Offensive zone time

Staal, a grizzled veteran who contributes in all areas of the game, has dominated face-offs in this series (69.0 percent; leads Cup Final), ranks second on the Hurricanes in playoff hits (84) and has been an advanced stats standout all postseason. Staal is also matched up against elite Vegas center Jack Eichel and has helped hold him without a goal through five Cup Final games.

Staal has become the first captain since Wayne Gretzky in 1985 to score at least six goals in a single Cup Final series, with his elite advanced stats playing a huge part in his offensive outburst. Staal ranks fifth among forwards in offensive zone time percentage at even strength (47.1) this postseason and is also in the 80th percentile among forwards or higher in many other key EDGE categories:

• Hardest shot: 88.57 mph (85th percentile)
• Max skating speed: 22.84 mph (88th percentile)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 24 (80th percentile)
• Total skating distance: 51.67 miles (94th percentile)
• Most miles skated in single game: 4.66 (95th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 11 (88th percentile)
• Offensive zone time percentage: 46.8 (88th percentile)

Per NHL EDGE IQ, Staal ranks third in goals scored on offensive zone plays this postseason (eight; behind Pavel Dorofeyev’s 10, Logan Stankoven’s nine), meaning when a goal is scored after the puck has been in the offensive zone for at least five seconds.

With goalie Frederik Andersen being pulled in Game 3 of the Cup Final and then not playing in either of the past two games, the door has opened for not only Staal but also Stankoven, Taylor Hall and Nikolaj Ehlers to be Conn Smythe contenders from the Hurricanes. With it being such a tight race, the winner could be whichever forward has the biggest performance in a potential Stanley Cup-clinching Game 6 or 7.