Mailbag: Late-season coaching changes; biggest surprise teams

NHL.com's weekly Over the Boards mailbag is in full swing this season. Every week, senior writer Dan Rosen sifts through your questions sent to him on X and answers them.

To participate in future mailbags, send your questions to @drosennhl on X and use #OvertheBoards.

Do you consider these late season changes to be exceptions or might this become the norm moving forward? Has there ever been an NHL coaching change during the playoffs? -- @MrEd315

The coaching changes with the Vegas Golden Knights and New York Islanders are more exceptions because of the uniqueness of the time of season and the coaches that were available, John Tortorella to Vegas and Peter DeBoer to New York. But winning is a cutthroat business and we're seeing that with these coaching changes by teams that were in a playoff position when they changed the leading voice behind the bench. It's reasonable to think we could see this happen in future seasons, especially with the parity in the League and more teams in win-now mode with the NHL salary cap going up and the races so tight. Just look at this season as an example with the number of teams that still are in the race and believing they can get in with a little more than a week remaining.

However, I could argue that they are exceptions this particular season because there were experienced, winning coaches like Tortorella and DeBoer available. It's rare that coaches with the resumes of Tortorella and DeBoer will be available this late into the season. It's even rarer that "out of work" coaches are as heavily involved in the NHL as they have been this season. They have been fully invested in the League because of their roles as assistants with Team USA and Team Canada, respectively, at the 2026 Winter Olympics. Prior to the Olympics, they were scouting and paying close attention. They were busy coaching at the Olympics. Tortorella also was an analyst for ESPN.

I can't think of a time when a team made a coaching change while it currently in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Coaches have been fired soon after their team loses in the playoffs. The New York Rangers did it with Tortorella in 2013 and Gerard Gallant in 2023. The Anaheim Ducks did it with Bruce Boudreau in 2016.

Which team has been the biggest surprise for you this season and which team the biggest disappointment? -- @DoverDiscGolf

For biggest surprise it's a toss-up between the Buffalo Sabres and San Jose Sharks. For biggest disappointment, it's a toss-up between the New Jersey Devils and Golden Knights, though Vegas can change that narrative if it goes on a long run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

It wasn't the talent that prevented the Sabres from having a season like they're having. They have had the talent for a while, though the additions the past few seasons of forwards Ryan McLeod, Josh Doan and Josh Norris have helped. What kept them down always seemed to be the lack of attention to detail and the inconsistency in their play and approach. There were no indications earlier this season that any of that would change, but it clicked for them in mid-December because they started winning. They properly analyzed the why's and how's. They discovered how to repeat it more often than not. They've never done that before in this era of Sabres hockey, which is why it's surprising.

They have already clinched a playoff spot and enter their game at the New York Rangers on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET; HBO MAX, truTV, TNT, MSG) in a three-way tie for first in the Atlantic Division. 

For the Sharks it is simpler. They were not supposed to be near a playoff spot this late into the season. Not yet. They lost their first six games (0-4-2) and seven of their first eight (1-5-2). They were 8-8-3 on Nov. 15 and that was only because they had a 6-0-1 stretch from Oct. 30-Nov. 11. But as inconsistent as they've been, they have found a way to recover from losing streaks and they have a superstar leading them in Macklin Celebrini. It helps that they're in the Western Conference, but the fact that they can be a playoff team this season is shocking. They are three points behind the Nashville Predators for the second wild card in the West with two games in hand. It's at least a season earlier than expected. 

My preseason prediction for the Stanley Cup Final was New Jersey against Vegas, with the Golden Knights winning. So, clearly, the Devils have been a disappointment because they were eliminated from postseason contention on Tuesday. They were picked to make the postseason by all 15 staff writers and editors that participated in NHL.com's preseason predictions on Oct. 5. Vegas has been disappointing because it hasn't dominated in the way I thought it would. The Golden Knights will make the playoffs and have won four in a row since Tortorella was named coach, but they have the Pacific Division and the Western Conference to thank for being in a playoff spot because they have been wildly inconsistent, especially at the start of games. However, that all changes if Vegas puts together a strong finish to the regular season and start to the postseason.

 
How does Chris Drury handle Adam Fox and others (Vladislav Gavrikov and Igor Shesterkin) to be sure they don’t want out this summer? -- @JGtradingcycles

Drury, the New York Rangers president and general manager, will have 1-on-1 meetings with each player after the season ends. They'll likely have questions about the plan and what the future looks like. Drury needs to provide some answers. He doesn't have to say everything he is going to do, but he should be able to lay out the plan to the core players such as Fox, Gavrikov, Shesterkin, Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere. If the plan is to try to move Trocheck, as it was before the trade deadline, Drury should communicate that to him so there are no surprises. Then it's up to him to execute the plan.

Most of the Rangers players are under contract for next season. Goalie Jonathan Quick and forwards Jonny Brodzinski and Conor Sheary can be unrestricted free agents after the season, and defensemen Braden Schneider and Vincent Iorio will be restricted free agents. Rookie forwards Gabe Perreault, Noah Laba, Jaroslav Chmelar and Adam Sykora are carving out roles on next season's team right now. Tye Kartye is too, in a bottom-six depth forward role. Rookie goalie Dylan Garand might be doing the same, meaning Quick's time in New York could be coming to an end. The Rangers need more speed and skill at the top of their depth chart up front and on the back end. They have some of that in-house, especially with Perreault in a top-six role. They have to go outside to get more. That's Drury's objective for the offseason. That has to be part of the plan. If he executes on it, Fox, Gavrikov, Shesterkin and everyone else should be ready to return as Rangers next season.

Why do the Hurricanes (struggle) in the second period? They are plus-28 in goal differential in the first, No. 1 in goals scored in the third, but minus-1 in goal differential and bottom 10 in goals scored in the second. For them, 2-0 leads in the first period usually turn into 2-2 or 3-3 games early in the third. -- @LouisMurrayJr1

To your point, the Hurricanes are second in the League with 90 goals for in the first period and are 10th with 63 against. Their plus-27 goal differential in the first period is second behind the Colorado Avalanche (plus-34, 94-60). They are second with 99 goals in the third period, though middle of the pack in third-period goals against (87, tied for 13th).

However, they are plus-1 in second-period goal differential (78-77). Their 78 goals are tied for 21st in the League, but the 77 against is still strong, tied for seventh. So it's not all bad for the Hurricanes in the second period, but it has made games closer for them, at least 33 percent.

Of the 36 games they were leading going into the first intermission entering Tuesday, they still were leading at the second intermission in 25 of them. They also trailed in five and were tied in seven. Of the 20 games they were trailing after the first period, they were either tied or trailing in 13 after two periods.

It's hard to pinpoint why the second period hasn't been as good as the first or third other than the obvious, which is it's always a harder period for teams because of the long change. They at times seem to lose their attacking mentality in the second period. Their defensive structure remains fairly sound, but when the Hurricanes aren't aggressive and attacking they don't generate as much.

But it is out of character for the Hurricanes under coach Rod Brind'Amour. They were one of the best teams in the League in the second period from 2018-25, a plus-143 goal differential that was tied for second in the League with the Toronto Maple Leafs behind the Avalanche (plus-183). Their 449 goals against was the best in the NHL not including the Seattle Kraken, who came into the League in 2021-22, or the Utah Mammoth, who began in 2024-25.

With an expanded 84-game regular season coming next season, how many points do you think might be needed for a team to clinch a playoff spot? -- @StacyAlbano

If we assume this season it'll take at least 95 points to make the playoffs in the East and 88 to make it in the West, the average to make it in the East in the past five seasons would be 93.8 points and 94.8 in the West. There are outliers such as the Washington Capitals being the second wild-card in from the East with 100 points in 2021-22. They had 16 more points than the next closest finisher. This season is the low end for the West. The average was 96.5 the previous four seasons. Add two more games for each team and with the number of three-point games plus the improvement of several teams in the East, based on this season and the five-year averages, it's fair to predict 97 in the East and 96 in the West next season. It also should be a less compressed schedule next season, so there will be more rest time and practice time built in. That could lead to fewer injuries, which leads to better competition and potentially more points.