NHL EDGE stats: Sabres-Canadiens series in 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide three underlying metrics to watch for in the upcoming Stanley Cup Playoffs series between the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens.

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1. Goal-scoring spotlight: Thompson vs. Caufield

This matchup features two of the best goal-scorers in the NHL with Cole Caufield of the Canadiens and Tage Thompson of the Sabres. Caufield is coming off a career-high 51 goals in the regular season (second in entire League behind Nathan MacKinnon’s 53), becoming the first Montreal player to eclipse the 50-goal mark since Stephane Richer in 1989-90. Thompson, meanwhile, scored at least 40 goals for the third time in the past four regular seasons.

In terms of even-strength goals, Thompson (71) and Caufield (67) rank first and second in the entire NHL over the past two regular seasons combined. They are also the top two United States-born goal-scorers over the past two regular seasons combined: Caufield is first with 88, while Thompson is second with 84. This regular season, each player had a huge game in the season series, with Thompson having a season-high five points (three goals, two assists) on Jan. 15 and Caufield following with three points (two goals, one assist) on Jan. 31. That was of Caufield’s 12 multigoal games this regular season, which was second behind MacKinnon (14).

Both players score goals in different ways but have plenty of range; Thompson, who’s 6-foot-6, ranked third in the NHL in midrange goals (19) this season, just ahead of Caufield (18; tied for fourth). Caufield, who’s 5-foot-8, scored 27 snap shot goals (second behind Wyatt Johnston’s 28). Thompson has the hardest shot among NHL forwards this postseason (96.14 mph), led his position in 90-plus mph shot attempts during the regular season and was also tied for fourth in wrist shot goals (23).

Thompson had seven points (two goals, five assists) in six games against the Boston Bruins in the first round but is in the midst of a five-game goal drought. Caufield, meanwhile, was held to four points (one goal, three assists) against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round and did not have any points in Games 5-7. In this evenly matched series, whichever player has a bigger impact could tilt the scale.

2. Goalie spotlight: Lyon vs. Dobes

Lyon, who took over the Buffalo starter’s net for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Game 3 against the Bruins, won three of his four games in the series and allowed two goals or fewer in each of his four starts. Lyon ranks second in high-danger save percentage (.926) this postseason behind Carter Hart of the Vegas Golden Knights (.929).

Canadiens rookie Jakub Dobes is coming off an epic performance in their Game 7 road win against the Lightning; he stopped 28 of 29 shots faced to lead Montreal to the series-clinching win despite the team having only nine shots on goal (fewest in history for winning team in single postseason game). Dating back to the third period of Game 5 against Tampa Bay, Dobes has stopped 77 of his past 79 shots faced (.975 save percentage).

In terms of 5-on-5 save percentage, Dobes (.934) significantly outperformed two-time Stanley Cup champion Andrei Vasilevskiy (.901) during the first round. Among goalies who have played multiple playoff games, Lyon ranks second in 5-on-5 save percentage (.950), while Dobes is fifth.

Buffalo has the best 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (54.4 compared to Bruins’ 45.6) this postseason among the remaining teams, while Montreal ranked 15th of the 16 qualifying teams in that category (45.1 compared to Lightning’s 54.9) during the first round. The Sabres have the top three skaters in the entire NHL this postseason in terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (minimum five games played): Josh Doan (67.7), Rasmus Dahlin (64.8) and Zach Benson (63.2).

3. Defenseman depth

In terms of points by defensemen in the regular season, Montreal (213) and Buffalo (212) ranked second and third in the NHL behind only the Colorado Avalanche (233). Dahlin, who’s the Sabres captain, combined for three points (one goal, two assists) over the final two games against the Bruins in the first round to help Buffalo win its first playoff series since 2007. Lane Hutson, who’s only 22 years old, scored the Game 3 overtime goal for Montreal against Tampa Bay and now has 11 points (two goals, nine assists) in his first 12 career postseason games.

Dahlin and Hutson are integral parts of not only their teams’ defensive efforts but also their first power-play units, each of which needs improvement. The Canadiens went 1-for-17 on the power play over the final five games against the Lightning, while the Sabres had the worst power play in the first round (4.2; 1-for-24).

One potential X-factor on both ends of the ice is Montreal defenseman Noah Dobson, who saw his first action of this postseason in Game 7 after missing the start of the series because of injury. Dobson did not have a point in Game 7 but had five shot attempts and an average shot speed of 75.56 mph (eighth in entire NHL this postseason). Hutson ranked third among defensemen in high-danger shots on goal during the regular season, while Dahlin was tied for sixth (18) in that category. Dobson also ranked highly among defensemen in high-danger shots on goal (14; 95th percentile) during the regular season.

But even with Dobson back, the Sabres have the deeper team on paper and have the most wins in the NHL since Dec. 9 (43; regular season and playoffs combined). Buffalo is the only team in the NHL that had 10 players with at least 40 points during the regular season, including three defensemen (Dahlin: 74; Bowen Byram: 42; Mattias Samuelsson: 41). The Sabres are also the only team with three defensemen having at least four points this postseason (Byram: five; Dahlin: four; Owen Power: four).