McKenna or Stenberg likely to be top prize for winner of NHL Draft Lottery

The opportunity to select a franchise-altering forward awaits the team holding the winning combination when the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is held at NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, SN, TVAS).

The decision could come down to either left wing Gavin McKenna of Penn State University or left wing Ivar Stenberg of Frolunda of the Swedish Hockey League -- different players with different paths and different styles who each offer the promise of changing the long-term trajectory of an NHL organization.

The Vancouver Canucks, who finished with the League's worst record in the NHL (25-49-8), have the best odds to win the lottery at 18.5 percent, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks (29-39-14) at 13.5 percent and the New York Rangers (34-39-9) at 11.5 percent.

The New York Islanders won the lottery last year and selected defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the No. 1 pick of the 2025 NHL Draft. Schaefer ranked second among NHL defensemen this season with 23 goals in 82 games.

The lottery will set the order of selection for the first 16 picks for the clubs that failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

The Upper Deck 2026 NHL Draft will be held at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The first round will be June 26 (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS), with rounds 2-7 on June 27 (10 a.m. ET; NHLN, ESPN+, SN). 

For the second straight year, instead of watching a countdown from 16 to 1 after the lottery balls have been drawn behind the scenes, fans will watch on live TV as the lottery balls are drawn at NHL Network's studio in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Monday.  

There will be two drawings, one to determine the No. 1 pick and a second to determine the No. 2 choice. No team can move up more than 10 spots in the draft order, meaning only the top 11 teams in the lottery are eligible for the No. 1 pick. If a team outside the top 11 wins, the team with the worst record in the NHL will pick No. 1.

McKenna (5-foot-11, 170), No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters eligible for the 2026 NHL Draft, made headlines last summer when he left Medicine Hat of the Western Hockey League to play NCAA hockey this season. It proved productive as the 18-year-old finished tied for fifth in the NCAA with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) and was second with 1.46 points per game in 35 games this season.

He could be the first men's ice hockey player from Penn State to be selected in the first round of the NHL Draft; forward Charlie Cerrato, chosen by the Carolina Hurricanes in the second round (No. 49) last year, is the highest-drafted player in the program's history.

"Gavin McKenna is an elite talent with exceptional hockey sense, quickness and maturity which has allowed him to dictate the play and influence games at every level he's played," NHL Central Scouting director Dan Marr said. "There wasn't anybody that anyone presented an argument about that has the talent that McKenna has. He's done it for over three years now. He's not just a newcomer on the scene. He's done it as the youngest player on most of the teams that he's been on, and he continues to do that."

McKenna's ability to think the game one step ahead is something that excites NHL scouts. He became Penn State's most dynamic offensive driver, setting nine program records and becoming the first freshman to crack 50 points in a season. He'll probably need an adjustment period to the NHL as he gets bigger and stronger, but he projects as an elite offensive driver with his vision, hockey IQ and playmaking ability.

He had 31 points (10 goals, 21 assists) in 17 games after the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship, where he helped Canada win the bronze medal.

Stenberg (5-11, 183), who is No. 1 on Central Scouting's final ranking of International skaters, had 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games with Frolunda, scoring the fifth-most by an 18-year-old in the SHL and the most since Daniel Sedin (42) and Henrik Sedin (34) in 1998-99. He helped Sweden win the gold medal at the 2026 WJC, tying for the team lead with 10 points (four goals, six assists) in seven games, including a goal and two assists in a 4-2 win against Czechia in the championship game.

"He's exceptionally smart," NHL Director of European Scouting Jukka-Pekka Vuorinen said. "High hockey IQ, elite awareness and decision-making. He's a highly skilled playmaker/scorer hybrid, able to drive offense and finish. He also has a great two-way reliability, makes strong defensive reads, and has an effective retrieval and disruption game."

Stenberg blends offense with responsibility in a way NHL scouts covet. He can create off the rush, extend possessions down low, or finish chances in tight, all while remaining reliable defensively. His awareness and decision making give him a quiet confidence, bordering on swagger, and he's notoriously difficult to knock off the puck.

The 2026 Draft again will have a decentralized format, with the 32 teams operating out of their home markets, similar to the 2025 draft.

Other players who could be selected in the top 10 include forwards Caleb Malhotra of Brantford of the Ontario Hockey League, Tynan Lawrence of Boston University, Oliver Suvanto of Tappara of Liiga, the top professional league in Finland, and Viggo Bjork of Djurgarden of the SHL, and defensemen Keaton Verhoeff of the University of North Dakota, Alberts Smits of Jukurit of Liiga, Carson Carels of Prince George (WHL) and Chase Reid of Sault Ste. Marie (OHL).

Front offices won't just be dreaming of talent; they'll be imagining fit when the machine is set and the ping-pong balls begin to tumble. 

Will it be McKenna's ability to run an offense through vision and pace, making him a natural focal point for a rebuilding team seeking a true engine? Or maybe it's Stenberg, an elite complement who can elevate star centers, sliding seamlessly into a top line role while enhancing structure and accountability.

McKenna remains the best player available, according to TSN director of scouting and former NHL general manager Craig Button.

"He couldn't have had the second half without the first half," Button said. "The first half was the on-ice adjustment, the growing, the challenges of so many different things in the college game. Being a student athlete, his off-ice and during-the-week training, the challenges of playing against bigger, stronger players. He had never had that (at Medicine Hat).

"He wasn't looking for an easy path. He was looking for the best development path."