BTN East 12.29

The NHL realigned its divisions for the 2020-21 season, which is scheduled to start Jan. 13, 2021, and will have each team playing a condensed 56-game intradivisional schedule. By using shot attempts differential and points percentage, NHL.com goes behind the numbers in each division to identify a reason for optimism for each team and a reason for concern. Today, we look at the East Division, made up of the Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

Last season, 21 of the top 24 teams in shot attempts differential qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. SAT differential is a statistic used to determine puck possession by way of shot attempts (on goal, missed and blocked), which helps to indicate how often a team is controlling the flow of the game.
Based on points percentage, the East Division ranks first in the NHL in terms of difficulty, with a combined .597 percent.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins' plus-96 SAT differential was 12th in the NHL, and their .714 points percentage led the League. Left wing Brad Marchand led the Bruins with a plus-212 SAT and right wing David Pastrnak was fourth at plus-155. However, Marchand (sports hernia surgery) and Pastrnak (right hip arthroscopy and labral repair) are likely to miss the start of the season.
Reason for optimism: Right wing Craig Smith, who signed a three-year contract with Boston on Oct. 10, was third on the Nashville Predators with a plus-160 SAT last season.
Reason for concern: If Pastrnak and Marchand each miss significant time, the Bruins could fall behind early in the toughest division based on last season's points percentage.

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      BOS@TBL, Gm5: Pastrnak blisters pass on power play

      Buffalo Sabres

      The Sabres' minus-101 SAT differential ranked 19th in in the NHL, and their .493 points percentage was tied for 25th with the New Jersey Devils. Left wing Taylor Hall, who signed a one-year contract with the Sabres on Oct. 11, should help to improve their scoring (193 goals for; 21st in NHL), but his minus-63 SAT is unlikely to help drive puck possession.
      Reason for optimism:Buffalo's .922 save percentage at 5-on-5 was 11th in the NHL despite its below-average puck possession.
      Reason for concern:Defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen's minus-158 SAT was the worst on the Sabres by a significant margin (defenseman Brandon Montour at minus-79) despite leading Buffalo in average ice time at 5-on-5 per game (17:00).

      New Jersey Devils

      The Devils' minus-483 SAT differential was the worst in the NHL, and their .493 points percentage was tied for 25th with the Sabres. However, forward Andreas Johnsson, who was acquired in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Oct. 10, had a plus-70 SAT last season.
      Reason for optimism:Johnsson could make a positive contribution to New Jersey's top six and help improve either center Jack Hughes' minus-112 SAT or Nico Hischier's minus-62 SAT.
      Reason for concern: If New Jersey's SAT doesn't improve, its .913 save percentage at 5-on-5 (tied for 23rd with Washington Capitals) is unlikely to be good enough to offset the poor possession metrics.

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          ANA@TOR: Johnsson finishes tic-tac-toe play for goal

          New York Islanders

          The Islanders' minus-447 SAT differential was 29th in the NHL, but their .588 points percentage was 11th. The Islanders made few offseason changes, but one addition of note is the signing of rookie goalie Ilya Sorokin to a one-year contract on July 14. Sorokin had a .935 save percentage for CSKA Moscow of the Kontinental Hockey League last season and could strengthen New York's save percentage at 5-on-5, which was 10th in the NHL last season at .923.
          Reason for optimism:If the Islanders maintain or improve their already strong goaltending, they could offset their negative SAT differential and continue to be among the best defensive teams in the NHL.
          Reason for concern:New York's SAT differential did not improve in the postseason (minus-106; 19th), and without any forward or defenseman additions, it's unlikely to drastically improve this season.

          New York Rangers

          The Rangers' minus-418 SAT differential was 28th in the NHL, and their .564 points percentage was tied for 18th with the Calgary Flames. The Rangers selected left wing Alexis Lafreniere with the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NHL draft, which should solidify their position as one of the top offenses in the NHL (233 goals scored; 5th in NHL).
          Reason for optimism:With one of the top offenses, the Rangers will be able to provide rookie goalie Igor Shesterkin with plenty of goal support this season.
          Reason for concern:Defenseman Jack Johnson, who signed a one-year contract with the Rangers on Oct. 9, had a minus-120 SAT with the Pittsburgh Penguins last season, which was the worst on the team by a wide margin (forwards Joseph Blandisi and Sam Lafferty were minus-50).

          Philadelphia Flyers

          The Flyers' plus-107 SAT differential was 11th in the NHL, and their .645 points percentage was sixth. Philadelphia signed defenseman Erik Gustafsson, who had a minus-51 SAT with the Chicago Blackhawks and Flames last season, to a one-year contract on Oct. 12.
          Reason for optimism:With the roster mostly the same, the Flyers should be able to replicate their success in puck possession. Last season, forward Claude Giroux was second on the team in SAT (plus-153) despite scoring his fewest points (53) in a full season since 2009-10 (47).
          Reason for concern:Carter Hart's .949 even-strength save percentage at home led the NHL (minimum 20 games), but his .869 even-strength save percentage on the road was last in the NHL (minimum 10 games).

          Pittsburgh Penguins

          The Penguins' plus-115 SAT differential was 10th in the NHL, and their .623 points percentage was seventh. Pittsburgh acquired forward Kasperi Kapanen, who had a plus-53 SAT last season, in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs on August 25.
          Reason for optimism:The addition of Kapanen gives the Penguins depth on offense, and he should be able to drive puck possession playing in their top six with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin.
          Reason for concern:The Penguins were tied for 19th with a .915 save percentage at 5-on-5 last season and could be impacted by the loss of goalie Matt Murray, who was traded to the Ottawa Senators on Oct. 7.

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              The Pittsburgh Penguins acquire Kasperi Kapanen

              Washington Capitals

              The Capitals' plus-193 SAT differential was eighth in the NHL, and their .652 points percentage was fifth. Among the notable moves Washington made was hiring Peter Laviolette as coach on Sept. 15, signing defenseman Justin Schultz to a two-year contract on Oct. 9 and forward Conor Sheary to a one-year contract on Dec. 22.
              Reason for optimism: Sheary, who had a plus-8 SAT last season with the Sabres and Penguins, should help the Capitals to maintain their puck-possession metrics.
              Reason for concern: Washington will be relying on Ilya Samsonov to be their No. 1 goalie after Henrik Lundqvist announced on Dec. 17 that he would not be playing this season because of a heart condition. Samsonov's .923 even-strength save percentage was 16th in the NHL (minimum 20 games), but he only started 26 games as the backup to Braden Holtby, who signed a two-year contract with the Vancouver Canucks on Oct. 9.