The Islanders were able to weather an early storm from the Lightning, staying in a scoreless contest despite managing just eight shots on goal in the game's first half. But when the goals came, they came quickly as the Isles and Bolts combined for three tallies in 27 seconds.
Nelson opened the scoring at 11:27 of the second period, wiring his ninth goal of the playoffs top corner past Vasilevskiy. Nelson pulled a nifty move to get himself in scoring position, skating towards the blueline before spinning off of Yanni Gourde and back into the slot.
Whatever momentum the Isles captured was taken away with lightning speed, as Coleman buried a breakaway 15 seconds later. Coleman was sprung by a long-range aerial pass from Gourde that he caught up to just in front of Varlamov for the tying goal.
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Tampa struck again 12 seconds after Coleman's goal, with the top line hooking up for a tally off the rush. Brayden Point dished to Nikita Kucherov, who sent a pass to an open Ondrej Palat in the slot, who just beat Semyon Varlamov blocker side.
"The most important shift is probably the shift after a goal and we failed it twice," Scott Mayfield said.
With the dam effectively burst, the Isles had a pair of golden chances to tie the score before the end of the period. Devon Toews hit the post on an Islanders power play, and Mathew Barzal had an open-net try deflected out of play by Ryan McDonagh.
The close calls proved costly, as Lightning already held a perfect 6-0 record when leading after two periods, before Point made it 3-1 at the 3:33 mark of the third. It was another tic-tac-toe play off the rush for Tampa's top line, with Kucherov going out wide to Palat who hit Point crashing the net for the tap-in goal.
The Islanders had a power-play chance late in the third, but could not convert and Maroon effectively iced the game with an empty-netter with 2:24 to play.
The loss forces the Isles into a do-or-die situation on Tuesday, marking the second time their season will be on the line - the other being Game 7 against Philadelphia.
"We can't change what's happened, obviously we'd like a different result," Nelson said. "We're here now with a chance, our backs are against the wall and we just have to go out there and play and give everything we have. It's going to take a little more from everybody and we have the group in here that believes in each other to go out there and get the job done. We just have to start with one."