NHL EDGE stats: Bouchard’s early case for Norris Trophy

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at three underlying metrics storylines behind Evan Bouchard’s early case for the Norris Trophy.

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1. Possession dominance

Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard has 11 points (six goals, five assists) in his first four games of the season, becoming the second player at his position with that many points through his team’s first four games of a season, joining Harry Cameron (14 with Toronto Arenas in 1917-18) in the first year of the League’s existence. Bouchard, who led NHL defensemen in points last season (95), boasts elite advanced stats in multiple categories, and his continued possession prowess is helping him build an early case for the Norris Trophy.

Bouchard, who has accounted for three of the six three-point games by NHL defensemen this season, leads the League with six goals which are also the second-most ever by a defenseman through their first four games of a season. It is worth noting Bouchard did not score his sixth goal last season until the Oilers' 34th game. Edmonton, with Bouchard and Connor McDavid (12 points; three goals, nine assists) is the third team in the past 30 years to have multiple players reach double-digit point totals prior to their fifth game of a season (others: Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly with Maple Leafs in 2018-19 and Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau with Sharks in 2012-13)

Bouchard ranks in the 99th percentile in offensive zone time percentage early on this season (51.5); last season, he was tied for third at the position in that category (47.6; behind Shayne Gostisbehere’s 49.6, Adam Fox’s 48.0) and was also tied for third at his position in power-play offensive zone time percentage (63.5). So far this season, Bouchard is also second among NHL defensemen in 5-on-5 shot attempts differential (plus-46; behind Brett Pesce's plus-47) and is close behind forward teammate Leon Draisaitl (plus-51) for the best mark in that category among all skaters. It’s also significant that Bouchard is the only defenseman with at least 30 shot attempts (32) in the NHL this season.

But, with the Oilers allowing 16 goals over their first four games this season, Bouchard continues to shoulder a heavy workload (25:03 per game this season; 12th in NHL). Despite strong core offensive stats and advanced possession metrics, Bouchard had the third-most giveaways among defensemen last season (123); only Werenski (125) and MacKenzie Weegar (124) had more. Bouchard has had five giveaways over his first four games this season, and he and his team may need to improve defensively under new coach Mike Babcock for him to ultimately win the Norris Trophy.

2. Shot speed

This season, Bouchard is the only player to score more than one goal on a shot of at least 75 miles per hour, and he has done so three times:

• 89.16 mph on October 7 vs. Anaheim Ducks (third-fastest shot speed on goal in NHL)
• 78.80 mph on October 7 vs. Anaheim Ducks
• 75.74 mph on September 29 vs. Vancouver Canucks

While Bouchard has yet to hit the 90-mph mark this season, he leads the League in 80-90 mph shot attempts (10) and ranks tied for second in 70-80 mph shot attempts (11; behind Seth Jones' 12). Since 2023-24 (over the past four seasons combined), Bouchard ranks third among defensemen in power-play goals (18 in span; behind Cale Makar’s 23, Jakob Chychrun’s 20) -- thanks largely to his shot speed.

Last season, Bouchard ranked second in the entire NHL in 90-plus mph shot attempts (51) behind fellow defenseman Darren Raddysh (97 for Tampa Bay Lightning; now with Toronto Maple Leafs). Bouchard was also a standout among defensemen in average shot speed (74.27 mph; 95th percentile) and hardest shot (98.08 mph; 90th percentile).

3. Perimeter offense

Bouchard’s hardest shot on a goal this season came from long range, and he has carried over his success from distance so far this season. He’s the only player in the NHL so far to score more than one long-range goal (three) and leads the entire League in long-range shots on goal (10). Last season, Bouchard ranked fourth in the entire NHL in long-range shots on goal (108) and was also among the defenseman leaders in mid-range goals (12; tied for third) and mid-range shots on goal (87; second behind Zach Werenski’s 91). 

In terms of shot types, Bouchard has scored twice on both snapshots and slapshots this season. Last season, Bouchard was the only NHL defenseman with at least eight snapshot goals and at least eight slapshot goals. And, since 2023-24, Bouchard leads NHL defensemen in slapshot goals (28; eight more than second-place Raddysh, Roman Josi).

Considering Bouchard’s well-versed advanced metrics and high points ceiling, he could contend with the other prime Norris candidates like Makar (won award twice), Quinn Hughes (once) and Werenski (once; reigning winner), especially if he outscores them by a decent margin. Bouchard, who finished fourth in Norris voting last season, has never been a finalist for the award but continues to benefit from exposure to regular 100-point scorers in McDavid (nine 100-point seasons in career; third most in NHL history behind Wayne Gretzky’s 15, Mario Lemieux’s 10) and Draisaitl (six; tied for seventh-most 100-point seasons in history).

For context, the last Oilers defenseman to win the Norris was Paul Coffey (1985-86), and Erik Karlsson (101 points in 2022-23; most since Brian Leetch had 102 points in 1991-92) won the Norris with the San Jose Sharks as the only defenseman in 34 years to eclipse 100 points.