Elite goalies trust process, not stats

Buffalo Sabres backup goalie Chad Johnson knows what the numbers say about his play.
Statistically, Johnson has been a worse goaltender this season than he was last season with the Calgary Flames, and he's played well below the standard he set in Buffalo two seasons ago.

Johnson is 2-9-3 with an .884 save percentage after he was 18-15-1 with a .910 save percentage for the Flames last season and 22-16-4 with a .920 save percentage for the Sabres in 2015-16.
He said he believes he's playing better now though.
"People have been like, 'Oh, you are having a [bad] year, [bad] year, [bad] year,' and I'm like, 'Well, actually, for me personally, my game is a lot better than it was; more consistent this year than it was last year,'" Johnson said. "The results just haven't been there."
Aligning the image painted by the numbers with the image a goaltender has about his own play can be hard when the numbers are subpar.
Robin Lehner, the No. 1 goalie in Buffalo, said it is among the hardest skills for a goaltender to develop. Lehner has a .912 save percentage, down from .920 last season and .924 in 2015-16.

"There are a lot of people outside looking in," Lehner said of judging strictly by statistics. "Your job is not to look out. The biggest part is not caring at all about what other people think. It's just a part of the reality of being a goalie. You are a part of a certain set of circumstances and you have to do the best with it. Some years you are part of good circumstances and you can make them better, and some years you are part of circumstance that are just a little harder and you've still got to try to do the same things, deal with it, wake up every day and try to get better."
Measuring the circumstances that affect goaltenders is part of what makes it hard to judge by top-line statistics alone.
Beyond save percentage and goals-against average, some analysts compare actual performance to expected save percentage based on the types of shots a goaltender is facing, including shot type, distance, angle and if it came off the rush. Others track even more information, including preshot passing plays and how much a goalie is forced to move before making a save.
The increase in information adds valuable layers of context to goaltending analysis, but none of the advanced stats completely account for the read a goalie makes on a play and whether it was the proper one, or, perhaps, if there was a mistake made by the defenders in front of him.
It's hard to judge expected goals, Johnson said, if you don't know what the goalie expected.
"They can't measure reads and what the D is supposed to do and if that happened or didn't and how it affected how you played it," Johnson said. "For me, there's still not enough context."
Beyond managing outside perceptions, goaltenders often need to filter results while playing a position where three bad bounces across three or four games can be the difference between a .920 save percentage and an .890.

James Reimer went through it earlier this season with the Florida Panthers. He started 4-6-3 with an .892 save percentage in his first 14 games but has a .924 save percentage in 18 games (9-6-2) since taking over for Roberto Luongo, who was injured Dec. 4.
Reimer said sometimes the hardest part is sticking with what you are doing when things aren't going well, trusting your foundation rather than chasing change -- or the puck -- based on short-term results.
Like a lot of goalies, he relied on video breakdowns with his goaltending coach to help analyze his play and understand nothing needed to change.
"You got here for a reason, so you don't need to reinvent the wheel," Reimer said. "When you look at tape and look at a one-goal-on-40-shots game and a four-goals-on-25-shots game and the fundamentals look identical, you just have to trust your game. It's just a matter of keep bringing it, keep plugging away and eventually the dam breaks."
Panthers goaltending coach Rob Tallas said he thinks the ability to separate process from results is a separator in the NHL.
"To be an elite goalie in this league, you really have to believe in yourself and not just say to yourself that you are good," Tallas said. "That's something that goes on every year for goalies. Sometimes you have great years, sometimes you can have years where the team might be offensive and it affects the way you play, but no matter what goes on in front of you, if you don't really believe in yourself and what you are doing, it's going to be difficult."

Johnson has that belief, no matter what the numbers say now, but it hasn't been easy.
"It's a mental grind," Johnson said. "It kind of humbles you in some sense to know no one is bigger than the game itself. People think you are a goalie so it's you versus a puck and everything else is equal but no one can overcome everything as an individual. Goalies need players and players need goalies."