Shoot high? Not enough: It's hard to ignore the goal totals above the blocker and arm in the regular season and playoffs through two rounds, which are all above the average -- 18.3 percent high blocker and 22.5 percent high glove -- for more than 8,500 goals tracked for this project since 2017. But it's rarely as simple as shooting high. Toronto scored all eight high-shot goals (three over the blocker, five over the glove) in the first three games of the series, and nothing after that. Bobrovsky stopped all 15 high shots over the final four games, but only one forced him to move laterally with a play across the middle of the ice, and he kept the glove up on that one to make a great save off Auston Matthews after a pass down below the right face-off circle in the first period of Game 4. Matthew Knies scored on a breakaway backhand over the glove and Morgan Rielly on a short-side shot over the blocker on a 2-on-1, but the other six high goals included plays that forced Bobrovsky to move laterally or included a screen that led to him lowering his hands.
Create chaos: Getting pucks and bodies to the net is a recipe for success against any goalie but Bobrovsky's goal totals on shots that hit a body or stick were well above the 14 percent tracked average in the tracked regular-season goals (21 percent) and are 14.3 percent (6 of 28 goals) in the playoffs so far. Add in screens as the primary factor on five playoff goals to date, and it's clear that reducing predictability and sightlines increases the chances of scoring against such an experienced play-reading goalie.
East-west and up quick: Bobrovsky's lateral movement is as good as any goalie in the NHL, so it's no surprise he's had success on plays and passes across the middle of the ice even during a down season statistically (by his standards). Of the 23 goals he surrendered on plays across the slot line, an imaginary line dividing the offensive zone from the goal line to the top of the face-off circles, 17 were finished by one-timers, emphasizing the importance of not giving him any extra time to get across like Matthews did on the above-mentioned high-glove save in Game 4. Bobrovsky has given up six goals in the playoffs on plays across the middle of the ice but as the Tampa Bay Lightning discovered in the second period of Game 5 in the first round, when he robbed Erik Cernak and Gage Goncalves on consecutive side-to-side chances to keep the Panthers ahead 3-2, if you don't get your shot up you risk a momentum-changing save. Against Bobrovsky, that means top half of the net, not just over the pad, because he excels at building vertical coverage over those pads with his glove and blocker, even in extended situations, which shows up in not having given up a goal over the pads to either side so far.
Find spots from sharper angles to make him move further: As well as Bobrovsky moves, some scenarios make it harder to cover off lateral distances. He will step outside his posts and square up on plays from the just above the face-off dots, which makes it harder for him to rotate and get all way back to the far post, so tip options wide of the net can be effective both to score and potentially opening gaps on second chances even if he gets to the first. Bobrovsky also squares up his rush retreats towards the boards and into an overlap of the post when plays get to bottom of the circle, especially on the blocker side, making it harder to get across on a lateral play from those sharp angles, with 13 of 23 slot-line goals below the hash marks in the regular season and three of the six in the playoffs.
Beware active stick: Getting low passes through is harder because of an active stick, so elevating attempts through the crease might get a few more to their intended target.
5-hole but not on breakaways: With all the focus on shooting high it was interesting to see Matthews and Max Domi each beat Bobrovsky along the ice on solo rush shots from distance in the final two games of the second round. But it's also worth noting that on breakaways, which accounted for 16 tracked regular-season goals on Bobrovsky that was well above the 10.2 percent average, the Maples Leafs failed to convert on all six chances in one-on-one situations while trying to beat him along the ice on five. Only former Panthers forward Steven Lorentz got a shot above the pads on a breakaway, failing to covert a shot aimed under the glove. The 5-hole totals, which have typically been well above the tracked average, come more often in the above-mentioned scramble situations, when lateral pushes from the butterfly force him to lift his push knee, making quick low shots back into the middle of his coverage an option worth trying in traffic and on rebounds.
Frederik Andersen
Carolina Hurricanes
The regular season sample for Andersen is smaller because he missed almost three months recovering from knee surgery. But after leaving Game 4 of the first round against the New Jersey Devils with an injury, Andersen was back to start the second round against the Capitals, giving up just six goals in five games while looking rested and sharp. Even without playing many games this season (22), there shouldn't be any secrets or questions about the tendencies within Andersen's well-balanced game after 517 NHL games over 12 seasons.
