Team Latvia confident history can repeat itself against Sweden

MILAN -- The words spilled out of the mouth of Kaspars Daugavins, measured and hopeful all at once.

The Latvian captain sports a beard that wouldn't be out of place in the Stanley Cup Final. His face, especially the unflinching eyes, are all business.

The 37-year-old has seen things during a nomadic hockey existence that has stretched across two decades, seven countries and 14 professional teams, including short stints with the Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins.

Tuesday, he plays in his 100th game with the senior national team.

The odds, the forward says, are stacked against Team Latvia when it faces Team Sweden in the win-or-go-home qualification round of the men's hockey tournament at the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026 at Santaguilia Arena on Tuesday (3:10 p.m. ET; Peacock, USA, ICI Télé, CBC Gem).

But they are odds, not outcomes.

Daugavins and his teammates still will control the outcome.

"Sweden is going to be favorite," he said, pragmatically. "We don't have to be stupid and say they are not. We know that they have the world's best players there, but we will go out and prove that we know how to play hockey too.

"We've proved it before. We can play each team like any team in the world. We will see. It's sports. That's the best part of being an athlete -- one day, anything can happen."

The Latvians know this.

In the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, Latvia won two games and tied another. Harijs Vitolins, the current coach, was captain of that team.

In 2014, the Latvians reached the quarterfinal of the tournament in Sochi, Russia, putting a scare into Team Canada before losing 2-1, scoring one of the three goals the eventual gold medalists allowed in the tournament. Daugavins was a member of that team.

He was then captain in 2023 when Latvia, playing at home, finished third at the 2023 IIHF World Championship. Vitolins was the coach. Sweden -- yes, Sweden -- was the victim in the quarterfinals, a 3-1 victory. In the bronze medal game, Latvia defeated Team USA 4-3 in overtime.

Daugavins knows the Latvian win against Sweden three years ago will be held up as the example that anything can happen Tuesday. He'll tell you that you can't compare tournaments. Rosters are different, players are better.

That said, he won't be upset if that loss lives rent-free in the heads of the Swedes.

"For them, they'll remember, always when you have a game like that," Daugavins said. "For us, it means we can do it again. It gives us belief we did it before. We will go out there and give them a hard game."

Sam Hallam is Sweden coach here. He was also coach on that fateful night three years ago, one that ended in tears for the Swedes while the Latvians celebrated ferociously. Forward Lucas Raymond is the only player who will be on the ice Tuesday who was there that night.

"That was one game from a long time ago," Hallam said after practice Monday. "That was a completely different group. If you look at the last two Worlds, we had many of these players play against Latvia and we have done pretty good."

Yes, the Swedes have won against Latvia in each of the past two World Championships. But they still know how dangerous their opponent is.

"There are no easy games here," Swedish forward Filip Forsberg said.

The Latvians have two NHL goalies in Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh Penguins) and Elvis Merzlikins (Columbus Blue Jackets). They are organized and they are fierce.

"I don't think we have pressure," Silvos said. "We just have to show we can play our best hockey. Things can happen. Maybe we get bounces, get goals. Who knows?

"They have a lot of skilled guys, good team. We just have to stick to our basics, play hard, defend hard, make it difficult for those guys to do something. We need to force them to do what we don't want them to do, and that is going to help us."

If they do that, does Latvia believe it can win?

Daugavins has seen too much to take the Mark Messier guarantee route, but he smiled perceptibly when asked the question.

"It's one game for each team to survive," he said. "It's 60 minutes of hard hockey and I don't know, I can't predict the score. But I do know that we will play hard, we will play physical and we will play like it is our last game."

It's worked before for the Latvians.

Why not again?