Nope, Tom. You're wrong. You've been blinded by watching the Capitals all year. It's the Lightning that will win the Eastern Conference Final.
It was so easy to forget how dominant the Lightning were at the start of the season, given their struggles down the stretch, and perhaps you've fallen into that trap. Their best players weren't quite so good. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy wasn't what he had been. But that all masked the fact that the Lightning are the best team in the East and have been from the very beginning. This is a team that lost in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Second Round against the Boston Bruins, made the necessary adjustments, got extraordinary play from its second line, all on the way to knocking out a very, very good Bruins team in five games. That says something. It says a lot.
If the Lightning get anywhere close to what they got from their top line in the Eastern Conference First Round against the New Jersey Devils, who they also beat in five games, they won't have any trouble dispatching the Capitals. Nikita Kucherov, for example, had 10 points (five goals, five assists) against the Devils, and then had two points (one goal, one assist) against the Bruins, and they still won in five.
That won't happen again.
Instead, the Lightning will ride their top line of Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and J.T. Miller all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. You can bank on it.