Mailbag: Sabres' playoff hopes after win streak; how Olympic rules impact rosters

NHL.com's weekly Over the Boards mailbag is in full swing this season. Every week, senior writer Dan Rosen sifts through your questions sent to him on X and answers them.

To participate in future mailbags, send your questions to @drosennhl on X and use #OvertheBoards.

Does this year feel different, as in they are legit, sustainable, can make the playoffs, for Buffalo than in year's past? -- @SabreGreg87

Even with an active nine-game winning streak it's too soon to say the Buffalo Sabres feel different, they will be different, the way they're playing is sustainable or they will make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. There's hope and reason to believe. The Sabres have given their fans that, but now they have to deliver on it for the rest of the season.

They have great vibes going on now, as forward Zach Benson said after the 4-2 win against the St. Louis Blues on Monday that extended their winning streak to nine games, their longest since a 10-game streak from Nov. 8-27, 2018. But the Sabres were 21-11-5 going into Christmas break that season and the vibes were great too. They went 12-28-5 in their last 45 games. They won seven of their first 10 games in 2022-23 and followed that by losing eight in a row. They missed the playoffs by two points. So, you see the history here. And that's why there is hesitancy to draw conclusions from a nine-game winning streak. This is still the same team that was 11-14-4 through 29 games before this winning streak began on Dec. 9.

However, if you're a Sabres fan your confidence is fueled by how they're defending and keeping the puck out of the net. They were allowing 3.55 goals against per game despite a penalty kill that was 85.5 percent before the winning streak began; their goals against during the winning streak is 1.89 per game despite the PK dropping to 81.8 percent. They're allowing less, winning more puck battles, and getting more saves at 5-on-5. They're winning at 5-on-5 and not relying on special teams. That is usually a recipe for sustained success. As Benson said after the win in St. Louis, "Everyone knows we have skill, but how many blocks we have on a night, pucks getting out on a wall, it's just little things like that and it adds up throughout a game. We're doing all the details right."

If that continues, the Sabres will be legit, sustainable and a playoff team. They can't get fat on a winning streak; they have to be consistent in their approach and resilient to get results, two traits that have eluded them in previous seasons.

Are the differences between Olympics (IIHF) and 4 Nations (NHL) rules something that need to be accounted for in Olympic roster decisions? -- @IronCaniac

The short answer is not really, but there's some wiggle room because under International Ice Hockey Federation rules a team can dress as many as 20 skaters with the likely combination being 13 forwards and seven defensemen. So, in theory, teams can select a player who specializes in one area such as power play and dress him to play only in those situations while keeping the rest of its lines and defense pairs intact. It also allows for what we know in the NHL as a full lineup to remain if there is an injury. So, you may want to say that Canada can select New York Islanders rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer or Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard because of the power play with the intention to use the player only for man-advantage minutes. That's not out of the question.

The competing nations in the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026 will be allowed to take a roster of 25 players, including 14 forwards, eight defensemen and three goalies. It was a 23-man roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Fighting is strictly prohibited under IIHF rules. Players who fight receive a five-minute penalty and a game misconduct with the potential for further suspension. So, don't expect to see what we saw in the first Canada-United States game at the 4 Nations Face-Off, three fights in the first nine seconds of the game. But rosters for the 4 Nations were not built based on who could fight; they were built to give teams balance. Everyone who fought in the U.S.-Canada game (Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk and J.T. Miller from the American side, and Brandon Hagel, Sam Bennett and Colton Parayko from the Canadian side) could all be selected to play in the Olympics because they bring so much else to the table. Fighting is not their "thing." It's just what they did in that game.

Rosters will not be impacted by the size of the ice because the Olympic tournament will be played on a rink that measures closer to NHL regulation than international hockey. The Olympic rink will be approximately 197-feet long and 85-feet wide. Regulation IIHF ice is 200x100. It will feel normal to NHL players.

Potentially last season for Alex Ovechkin, so do the Capitals go for a big scorer and who? Option 2, keep building the prospects pipeline. -- @samb999

The Capitals have a need for a top-six forward, particularly on the wing once Pierre-Luc Dubois returns from his rehab from surgery he had on Nov. 7 and joins Dylan Strome as their top two centers. They have Ovechkin, Tom Wilson and Aliaksei Protas, but the Capitals are one left wing short in the top six. That's where they should be looking. It's the exact reason why they were targeting Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency before he signed with the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Eastern Conference is so tight that the Capitals should be in the mix to get into the playoffs. And with the conference being so tight they would have as good a chance as any to do some damage, especially after getting Dubois back. He's out likely through the Olympic break recovering from surgery to address injuries to his abdominal and adductor muscles. Their power play could use another weapon. It's 15.2 percent.

Cap space should not be an issue. Washington should have enough to bolster its top six. And its defense might get an infusion in the form of Cole Hutson after his season at Boston University finishes. The Capitals could sign the 19-year-old defenseman to his entry-level contract, just like they did with Ryan Leonard when he finished his season at Boston College last season.

But Washington is in the mix in the East, and there's no reason to worry solely about development. The Capitals should be pushing to make a run. They have as good a chance as any team, and even better if goalie Logan Thompson is on his game.

Any theories on why the Vegas Golden Knights end up in overtime so often? And great that they're not losing in regulation but conversely struggling to close games out. Most wins when behind in third is also telling. -- @martmonk

The Golden Knights are living hard and dangerously, chasing more than they're leading, yet finding a way to come back in the third period. That's how you get to overtime 15 times in 37 games. The numbers tell you everything.

Vegas has allowed the first goal in 21 of its 37 games, going 6-8-7 when it allows the first goal and 11-1-4 when scoring first. Clearly, playing with the lead makes a big difference.

The Golden Knights have had the lead after the second period in only 11 of their 37 games, going 10-0-1. It's great that they don't blow leads, but not so great that they don't often have the lead as they have been tied or trailing going into the third period 28 times. They're 5-1-3 in games when tied going into the third and 2-8-7 when trailing. The fact that they have gotten points in nine of 17 games when they've trailed after two periods is exceptional. They have outscored their opponents 45-31 in the third period, a plus-14 goal differential. But they're minus-5 through 40 minutes, getting outscored 73-68.

All of it leads to more overtime, where the Golden Knights have struggled, going 3-6 in games decided in the extra five minutes and 1-5 in games decided in a shootout.

But they're in second place in the Pacific Division, one point behind the Edmonton Oilers and one ahead of the Anaheim Ducks, because of their ability to come back in games. It's a hard and dangerous way to go through a season and it doesn't feel sustainable, so they better start taking control of games early or it could get dicey for them later in the season.

Winter Classic: Is it really an 'Outdoor game' if the stadium is covered and enclosed? -- @missKC1911

The roof at loanDepot park in Miami will be open for the 2026 Discover NHL Winter Classic between the Florida Panthers and New York Rangers on Friday (8 p.m. ET; HBO MAX, truTV, TNT, SNW, SNO, SNE, TVAS). The League is doing the rink and set setup with the roof closed and air conditioners blasting, but the roof is planned to be open for the game, especially since it's supposed to be a clear and relatively chilly night by Miami standards. So, don't fret -- it's an outdoor game and yes, it's also winter in South Florida, so it is a true Winter Classic even if it's not in a cold-weather climate.

Do you think the NHL will ever change the point system to the 3-2-1 method? -- @JordanNorthrop

This is not something that is currently being considered as an alternative to the current point system as it was not discussed at any of the recent General Managers' meetings. That could, of course, change quicky, but for now it's not a hot topic around the League even though the NHL and NHL Players' Association used the 3-2-1 format in the 4 Nations Face-Off. That was different, though. It was a short tournament, no more than four games for the top two teams (Canada and the United States) as opposed to an 82-game and soon to be 84-game regular season schedule.

The 3-2-1 system rewards three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, and one for an overtime or shootout loss. There has generally been pushback on the 3-2-1 system because of the NHL's competitive balance with the current system. The standings are tight, the races are good, fan interest grows as the season continues, and this year there will be a major sprint to the finish with so many teams in the mix coming out of the Olympic break. It's reasonable to think sometime down the road the NHL could look to the 3-2-1 point system, so no one can say it will never happen, but for now the status quo seems preferred.