Mailbag: Stanley Cup window open for Maple Leafs, Jets; Pastrnak contract

Here is the Jan. 11 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Which Canadian team is closest to raising the Stanley Cup? We have seen the Maple Leafs falter every year, the Canadiens make it to the Final and the Oilers struggle to get over the hump in the playoffs. Can you rank all seven teams from closest to furthest away? -- @theashcity
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: The window is open and it's right now. The Maple Leafs have to get over the hump of winning in the first round. If they do, look out. They could be just like the Colorado Avalanche, who had to get over the hump of winning in the second round. They did last season and won the Stanley Cup. It would not surprise me if Toronto does the same.
2. Winnipeg Jets: Another team that has the window open. The future core remains uncertain with forwards Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele, and goalie Connor Hellebuyck, signed only through next season. But the Jets are a solid team, strong up front and on the back end, and they have the goaltending with Hellebuyck that could carry them a long way this spring.
3. Edmonton Oilers: The goaltending and defense must hold up, but the Oilers showed last season that they can win in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl give them everything, but they need help too. It can't just be the Connor and Leon show. Show me consistent goaltending and a third line that can score and take on other team's top lines and I'll show you a team that can win the Stanley Cup. I expect additions before the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline on March 3.
4. Calgary Flames: They need another top-six forward, but the Flames are a veteran team with solid players, point producers, a good defense and a goalie that was a Vezina Trophy finalist last season. Why they aren't better than they are this season is a bit of a mystery. It's a team built to win now.
5. Ottawa Senators: They're growing. It was too much to ask the Senators to be a playoff team this season with their defense group. They need more in that area. Their forwards are solid, and captain Brady Tkachuk is a true leader and star player. I like a lot of the things they have going on in Ottawa, but the defense needs work.
6. Vancouver Canucks: They're ahead of the Montreal Canadiens because they're better, but I hesitate because I don't know the direction of the team. Is it a guarantee that forward Bo Horvat will be traded? What is the future of coach Bruce Boudreau? The Canucks are in the bottom third of the NHL standings at a time their roster suggests they should be in the middle, and that's the worst place to be in the NHL. Too many questions.
7. Canadiens: The rebuild is on. It's going to take time.

Any update on the David Pastrnak contract situation? Rumors say that the two sides are apart, so what would a hypothetical contract offer look like for each camp? Who has a contract that would be comparable? -- @plstover99
I understand the concern or trepidation if you're a fan of the Boston Bruins. Pastrnak is in the final season of a six-year, $40 million contract that pays him $6.67 million annually. The forward turns 27 on May 25. He can become an unrestricted free agent. The Bruins can't let that happen. And they know that, which is why I'm confident this will get done. When? That's the million-dollar question. The last thing the Bruins want is to go into the playoffs with this contract situation hanging out there, so conventional wisdom suggests get it done in the regular season. They're certainly not going to trade him, so it's really either sign him or lose him for nothing. The latter is not an option.
However, Pastrnak's value seems to grow with each game, so the longer it goes the more it benefits him; he is second in goals (32) and tied for fourth in points (58) in the NHL. As far as I can tell, Pastrnak likes it in Boston and the Bruins don't want him to go anywhere else. Contract negotiations, particularly of this magnitude, aren't easy. I think by this point we know Pastrnak is worth an eight-year contract that probably pays him north of $80 million. The Bruins signed defenseman Charlie McAvoy to an eight-year, $76 million contract ($9.5 million AAV) on Oct. 15, 2021. That kicked in this season.
Pastrnak's deal will eclipse that. The Bruins have to know that. They may be trying to keep it in the $10 million AAV range with Pastrnak's camp potentially looking in the $12 million range. Total guess, but my hunch is they find middle ground. It's hard to find a true comparable because Pastrnak is the best player in the pending free agent class and the NHL salary cap is expected to go up significantly in the coming years. It will likely stay flat ($1 million increase) next season, but then it could shoot up as much as $4 million or more for the 2024-25 season. That gives Pastrnak even more leverage in a situation where he already seems to have all of it.

The Anaheim Ducks are not in the playoff window now. Maybe they will be in 3-5 years, when their prospects are called up and have matured. If you were the GM for the Ducks, what would be your game plan for the next few years? -- @TeemuFor8ver
Patient Pat. That's what we should be calling Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek. That's who he needs to be. Patient and diligent because you are 100 percent right about the Ducks not being in a playoff window now. This is a 3-5 year plan.
Here's what we know:
1. I like that the Ducks have only four veteran players signed beyond next season with forward Ryan Strome (four more seasons) and Frank Vatrano (two more), defenseman Cam Fowler (three) and goalie John Gibson (four). Rookie forward Mason McTavish is in the first season of his three-year entry-level contract. Strome, Vatrano, Fowler and Gibson are important pieces in this rebuild. They will be good now and should still be impact players when the lineup around them has matured and the Ducks are ready to contend for the postseason. It's possible all four won't see it all the way through, of course, but that will be dealt with in the course of time.
2. Forwards Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry will get paid after this season. They're each pending restricted free agents and an enormous part of the future. The Ducks will build around Zegras, Terry, McTavish, defenseman Jamie Drysdale and eventually a few others in their system. There will be room for Drysdale, who could be out for the rest of the season because of shoulder surgery, and another young defenseman after this season because Kevin Shattenkirk and Dmitry Kulikov are pending UFAs. The more the Ducks can turn their roster over to younger players without putting them in situations they can't handle, the better.
3. The Ducks already have plenty of cap space and will have more to use after the season and beyond. They have to be smart with it because Terry and Zegras will eat up some of it in their next contracts. But with the cap likely to go up after next season, the Ducks are positioned well to spend wisely in the next two offseasons to help expediate the rebuilding process.

What do Artemi Panarin's 5-on-5 numbers look like against decent (let's just say playoff position) teams? I feel like for the past year, unless he is on the power play, he has been a non-factor. Prove me wrong. -- @ericsagedean
Non-factor is too strong. I will never use that term when it comes to Panarin. He is always a factor for the New York Rangers. The forward is one of the most dangerous players in the NHL when he has the puck on his stick. His vision, ability to thread the needle on a pass, it's outstanding. But I can't prove you wrong about his lack of consistent scoring impact at even strength against the higher quality opponents since the start of last season.
Last season, Panarin had 23 even-strength points (six goals, 17 assists) in 36 games against the 15 other teams that made the playoffs.
This season, using the criteria of opponents who have won more games than they've lost, Panarin has 10 even-strength points (three goals, seven assists) in 23 games.
Panarin is still 11th in the NHL in points since the start of last season (141; 33 goals, 108 assists in 117 games) and tied for 16th in even strength points (86). I do agree he needs to be more effective at even strength this season, but don't forget he had great chemistry with Strome, who is now with the Ducks, and has been trying to find something similar with Vincent Trocheck through the first half of this season. It hasn't come easy for Panarin and Trocheck, but the longer they play together the more they'll figure it out. And, frankly, if he's better than a point-per-game player, which he is, is there really a reason to complain or worry? I say no.

If you could personally send one player to the All-Star Game, who would it be and why? -- @johnfiorino97
Zegras. The NHL needs to showcase him as much as possible. He is a superstar whose game speaks to fans of all ages.
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