Mailbag: Playoff dark horses, Penguins' chances in Metropolitan

Here is the Aug. 30 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X using #OvertheBoards. Send your questions to @drosennhl.

Who is the team that you don't think is getting talked about enough as a possible playoff team heading into training camp (one in each conference)? -- @punmasterrifkin

Talk will start picking up in the coming weeks, but to me it's the Vancouver Canucks in the Western Conference and the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference.

The Canucks went 20-12-4 after Rick Tocchet took over as coach Jan. 22, replacing Bruce Boudreau (18-25-3 record). They especially took off once goalie Thatcher Demko returned Feb. 27 after missing three months because of a groin injury. Demko went 11-4-2 with a 2.52 goals-against average and .918 save percentage in 17 games after he returned. He was 3-10-2 with a 3.93 goals-against average and .883 save percentage in 15 games through Dec. 1. The Canucks improved defensively under Tocchet, as noted by Kevin Woodley in our 32 in 32 series, going from allowing 3.96 goals per game in 46 games under Boudreau to 3.17 in 36 games under Tocchet. They also cut down their average of shots on goal allowed per game, from 32.2 to 29.1. Their penalty kill, maligned for most of the season, also improved, going 78.4 percent under Tocchet compared to 65.9 percent under Boudreau, and should improve this season with the offseason additions of defensemen Ian Cole and Carson Soucy, and forward Teddy Blueger, who all are effective penalty killers. I think Demko and the Canucks can rally off how they finished last season and be a team that reaches the Stanley Cup Playoffs. And I'm not alone.

"The way we ended the season, I think guys understand that we can play good, we can compete against the better teams," Canucks center Elias Pettersson told me for a future episode of the "NHL @TheRink" at the NHL European Player Media Tour in Stockholm last week. "Obviously we have to have a good start, but I think we got a good feeling about what it takes to be a good team and we just have to build on what we started at the end of last season."

I'm not as bullish on the Blue Jackets as I am on the Canucks, but I'm excited and intrigued about what coach Mike Babcock will do with a team that has a lot of talented parts and a defense that should be improved with the return of Zach Werenski, who missed the final 69 games of last season because of a shoulder injury, and the additions of Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson. A big key will be goalie Elvis Merzlikins. He was 7-18-2 with a 4.23 GAA and .876 save percentage in 30 games last season. He should be better behind an improved defense, but the Blue Jackets are not going to be a top-end scoring team, so Merzlikins will have to be a top-end goalie. There will be growing pains because they're young and counting on forwards Adam Fantilli, 18; Cole Sillinger, 20; Kent Johnson, 21; and Kirill Marchenko, 23; and defensemen David Jiricek, 19; and Adam Boqvist, 23; to be impactful players. But if the Blue Jackets can clean up their defense (they allowed 4.01 goals per game last season, the most in the Eastern Conference), get Grade A goaltending and stay healthy (team record 563 man-games lost to injury last season) they should be able to stay in the wild card hunt.

Top three rookie dark horses to make the opening night lineup? -- @theashcity

I can't say these are the top three because it's still early, but here are three not named Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson or Luke Hughes that I believe have a legitimate chance to make their team's opening night lineup.

Shane Wright, F, Seattle Kraken:Yes, the No. 4 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft is not a dark horse by name, but Wright is far from a lock to make the Kraken's opening night lineup. He has a lot to prove, and spots are limited, especially at center, where Seattle has Matty Beniers, Alex Wennberg, Yanni Gourde and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. But Wright had a strong showing in the Calder Cup Playoffs with Coachella Valley last season, getting better in each round and finishing with nine points (two goals, seven assists) in 24 games. He's 19, so per the agreement between the NHL and Canadian Hockey League he either has to play in Seattle or be returned to the Ontario Hockey League. The Kraken can ask to be granted an exemption to allow Wright to play in the American Hockey League, and he was allowed to play in the AHL on a conditioning assignment last season. He has to earn his spot, but Wright's next step is not a return to the OHL, so with a strong camp the Kraken should find a spot for him in their lineup.

Simon Nemec, D, New Jersey Devils: Nemec, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft, had 34 points (12 goals, 22 assists) in 65 AHL games with Utica last season. He's still 19, but he's not subject to the NHL-CHL agreement, which is why he's eligible for the AHL. But a strong camp could land him in New Jersey to start the season. He's a right-handed shot, but Nemec could outperform lefties such as Colin Miller, Kevin Bahl and Brendan Smith in camp to earn his spot. But there are roadblocks: 1) Luke Hughes is expected to be in New Jersey's top-six group, and going with two rookies in that mix is a long shot when there are veterans that can fill it out; 2) Nemec should go to the AHL if he doesn't make the top six.

Mackie Samoskevich, F, Florida Panthers: Trading Anthony Duclair to the San Jose Sharks created the opening for Samoskevich, who had 43 points (20 goals, 23 assists) as a sophomore at the University of Michigan last season and two assists in two games with Charlotte of the AHL. Evan Rodrigues could fill a top-six spot; so could Nick Cousins or Eetu Luostarinen. But a strong camp could push Samoskevich, the No. 24 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, up the depth chart to play in a group that already features Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett. If he doesn't get in there, a third-line spot is a possibility too.

Can Pittsburgh unseat the New York Rangers for the No. 3 spot in the Metropolitan Division? -- @stokespatrick15

They could, especially with the addition of defenseman Erik Karlsson, but I don't think they will be able to keep the puck out of the net enough to do so. They were 19th in the NHL in goals-against per game last season at 3.21. Their goalies finished 12th in save percentage (.902), tied with the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning, behind the New York Islanders (.915), Rangers (.910) and Devils (.904). The Hurricanes finished first in the division, the Devils were second and Rangers were third. Pittsburgh's goalies were 19th in goals-against average (3.18), behind the Hurricanes (2.52), Rangers (2.60), Islanders (2.62), Devils (2.67) and Washington Capitals (3.15). I don't know that the Penguins will be any better this season.

They're going back to Tristan Jarry, who signed a five-year contract July 1. He's a solid, capable NHL goalie, but he's at best third in the division behind the Rangers' Igor Shesterkin and the Islanders' Ilya Sorokin. Adding Karlsson was a no-brainer, and the two-time Norris Trophy winner will make an impact, but he's not going to make the Penguins a superior defensive team. They have the offense to outscore some problems, but defense remains the big question I have with the Penguins and it's the main reason why I think they'll finish fourth in the division. But they'll be good enough to make the playoffs as a wild card.

What do you think the Islanders need to do to get to that next level? It's always about how they need to get that elite scoring winger, but how and when and who? -- @JRPuckHouse

You said it. They need more scoring, especially on the wing. I thought an answer might be Alex DeBrincat, but the Ottawa Senators traded the forward to the Detroit Red Wings. Video: Top Plays of Elias Pettersson is on the mend after having hip resurfacing surgery June 1. He's an unrestricted free agent and it's no secret that he would be interested in playing with Islanders center Mathew Barzal. Would a 34-year-old Kane, coming off major surgery, still be considered an elite scoring wing? In my book, absolutely, and especially if he's pain-free. The Islanders are in a win-now window with their roster and Kane on a one- or two-year contract would make sense if, and it's a big if, the thought is he's able to return to form. It might take until midseason for that to happen, but the Islanders should be good enough to stay in the race and wait it out.

And if it's not Kane, or even if it is, let's talk about the pie-in-the-sky, longshot option and say William Nylander. Why not? Nylander is entering the last season of his contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He can be an unrestricted free agent after this season. Toronto signed Auston Matthews to a four-year, $53 million contract ($13.25 million average annual value). Mitchell Marner has two years left on his contract that has a $10.9 million AAV. He could get bumped to $12-13 million AAV in his next deal if he continues to trend up. Nylander's AAV in his next contract could be in the $10 million range. This isn't to say the Maple Leafs won't be able to get all three under contract, but that's a lot of NHL salary cap dollars committed to three players and it doesn't seem like they're too keen on the idea of $10 million AAV for Nylander. It's not crazy to think the Islanders could be an option for Nylander, either through trade or unrestricted free agency next summer. They certainly could use him.