Toffoli, Brodie could have impact in North Division, numbers suggest

The NHL realigned its divisions for the 2020-21 season, which is scheduled to start Jan. 13, 2021, and will have each team playing a condensed 56-game intradivisional schedule. By using shot attempts differential and points percentage, NHL.com goes behind the numbers in each division to identify a reason for optimism for each team and a reason for concern. Today, we look at the North Division, made up of the seven teams based in Canada.

Last season, 21 of the top 24 teams in shot attempts differential qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. SAT differential is a statistic used to determine puck possession by way of shot attempts (on goal, missed and blocked), which helps to indicate how often a team is controlling the flow of the game.
Based on points percentage, the North Division ranks last in the NHL in terms of difficulty, with a combined .542 percent, leaving opportunity for teams that succeed to be one of the four from each division to make the playoffs.

Calgary Flames

The Flames' plus-43 SAT differential was 15th in the NHL last season, and their points percentage (.564) was tied for 18th with the New York Rangers. TJ Brodie, who was second among Calgary defensemen with a plus-97, signed a four-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Oct. 9. His loss could hurt Calgary's puck-possession metrics this season, but a bounce back from forward Sean Monahan, whose SAT differential dropped from plus-162 in 2018-19 to minus-10 last season, could help offset the loss. The Flames signed goalie Jacob Markstrom to a six-year contract on Oct. 9; he was tied for 11th in wins last season (23) and his presence improves their overall outlook.
Reason for optimism:Calgary is likely to get more production from Monahan and forward Johnny Gaudreau, who each had NHL career lows in shooting percentage last season (13.3 percent, 8.6 percent).
Reason for concern: The loss of Brodie could negatively affect Markstrom's performance in his first season with the Flames.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers ranked 27th in the NHL in SAT differential (minus-273) and 12th in points percentage (.585). Despite finishing No. 1 and 2 in scoring in the NHL, forwards Leon Draisaitl (minus-82) and Connor McDavid (minus-90) each had subpar numbers regarding SAT differential. Edmonton's puck possession metrics, paired with its .912 even-strength save percentage (tied for 25th in the League), raises a potential red flag.
Reason for optimism: The addition of defenseman Tyson Barrie, who was plus-165 with the Maple Leafs last season, could significantly improve the Oilers puck possession this season. Barrie signed a one-year contract with Edmonton on Oct. 10.
Reason for concern: Defenseman Oscar Klefbom, who led the Oilers in average time on ice per game (25:25), is out for the season because of a chronic shoulder injury.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens, who ranked second in the League in SAT differential (plus-595) to the Vegas Golden Knights (plus-621) and were 24th in points percentage (.500), signed forward Tyler Toffoli to a four-year contract Oct. 12 and acquired forward Josh Anderson in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets on Oct. 6. Toffoli was plus-218 in 58 games with the Los Angeles Kings before being traded to the Vancouver Canucks on Feb. 17, and Anderson was plus-5 in 2018-19, his last full season with the Blue Jackets.
Reason for optimism: Montreal's offseason additions could solidify its status as one of the best puck-possession teams in the NHL.
Reason for concern: Goalie Carey Price's .909 save percentage last season may decline with additional games against the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl and Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews this season.

Ottawa Senators

The Senators' minus-233 SAT differential ranked 26th in the NHL last season, and they were 30th in points percentage (.437). Ottawa could improve those numbers after it acquired goalie Matt Murray, who ranks 12th in wins (108) since 2016-17, in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins on Oct. 7. Forward Evgenii Dadonov, who signed a three-year contract with the Senators on Oct. 15, had a plus-61 SAT differential with the Florida Panthers last season and may improve Ottawa's puck-possession metrics.
Reason for optimism: Murray and goalie Anders Nilsson, who had nine wins in 19 starts last season, could make goaltending a strength for the Senators this season.
Reason for concern: Defenseman Dylan DeMelo, who led Ottawa in SAT differential last season (plus-68), was traded to the Winnipeg Jets on Feb. 18, and forward Bobby Ryan, who was third (plus-34), signed a one-year contract with the Detroit Red Wings on Oct. 9.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs were fifth in the NHL in SAT differential (plus-270) and tied for 13th in points percentage (.579). Brodie should help to offset the loss of Barrie, who was third on Toronto last season. Forward Joe Thornton, who had a plus-96 SAT differential with the San Jose Sharks last season, should make a positive impact, and defenseman Zach Bogosian (plus-120 in 20 postseason games for the Tampa Bay Lightning last season) could solidify the Maple Leafs as a top-five team in SAT differential once again.
Reason for optimism: Toronto's offseason additions should help to maintain or even improve its strong puck-possession metrics.
Reason for concern: Goalie Frederik Andersen, who had the lowest save percentage of his NHL career last season (.909), could struggle to regain his form against the deep scoring in the North Division.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks were tied for 22nd in SAT differential (minus-201) last season and were tied for 15th in points percentage (.565). Defenseman Nate Schmidt, acquired in a trade with the Golden Knights on Oct. 12, was plus-129 last season and should improve Vancouver's SAT differential. Goalie Braden Holtby, who signed a two-year contract with the Canucks on Oct. 9, was eighth in wins (25) last season and will help to minimize the loss of Markstrom.
Reason for optimism: Schmidt could skate on the same pair as Quinn Hughes, who was plus-110 last season, forming one of the better pairs in the North Division.
Reason for concern: Holtby's .897 save percentage with the Washington Capitals last season was the lowest of his 10-season NHL career; a lack of improvement could affect his win total with the Canucks.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets' minus-190 SAT differential was 21st in the NHL, and they were 20th in points percentage (.563). The addition of DeMelo, who was plus-19 in 10 games with Winnipeg last season, should improve its puck-possession metrics over a larger sample size. Forward Paul Stastny, acquired in a trade with the Golden Knights on Oct. 9, was plus-232 last season and could drastically improve the Jets' ability to generate shot attempts this season.
Reason for optimism: Stastny and DeMelo each is a positive addition for Winnipeg and could help place it within the top 15 teams in SAT differential.
Reason for concern: Connor Hellebuyck, who won the Vezina Trophy voting as the best goalie in the NHL last season, had 31 wins and a .922 save percentage, and led the League with six shutouts. Backup Laurent Broissoit had six wins and a .895 save percentage. With the condensed schedule, additional starts for Broissoit could impact the Jets.