NHL EDGE stats: Impact of Tkachuk’s return on Panthers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify the key advanced metrics surrounding Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk as he approaches his season debut.

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Matthew Tkachuk is set to make his season debut, and his strong advanced stats have the back-to-back champion Florida Panthers equipped for another Stanley Cup run.

The forward, who has missed the first half of this season after having surgery to repair a torn adductor muscle and sports hernia on Aug. 22, will return to Florida's lineup against the San Jose Sharks on Monday (6 p.m. ET; SCRIPPS, NBCSCA). Tkachuk, who had 57 points (22 goals, 35 assists) in 52 regular-season games last season, was injured in February of 2025 playing for the United States at the 4 Nations Face-Off; he missed the final 25 games of last regular season but returned for Game 1 of the playoffs.

He had 23 points (eight goals, 15 assists) and played in all 23 playoff games as the Panthers repeated as Stanley Cup champions last season. Since being traded to Florida from the Calgary Flames prior to the 2022-23 season, Tkachuk leads the Panthers in regular-season points per game (1.20; 254 in 211 games), assists (166) and shots on goal per game (3.59).

Over his three postseasons with the Panthers, Tkachuk leads them with 69 points (25 goals, 44 assists) in 67 games, ranking fourth in the entire NHL over that span, helping Florida make three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances. Tkachuk, who had three points (two goals, one assist) and 12 shots on goal in three games at the 4 Nations Face-Off prior to his injury, has been selected to the United States roster for the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026.

Here are three underlying metrics storylines behind Tkachuk’s impact on the Panthers:

1. High-danger prowess

From the start of last season to his final regular-season game (Feb. 8, 2025), Tkachuk ranked in the 96th percentile among forwards in both high-danger shots on goal (55) and high-danger goals (13). Only Sam Reinhart (15) scored more high-danger goals than Tkachuk on the Panthers over that span.

Last season, 10 of Tkachuk’s final 16 goals (regular season and Stanley Cup Playoffs combined) were high-danger goals. In the 2025 postseason, Tkachuk ranked in the 97th percentile among forwards in high-danger goals (five) and 91st percentile at the position in high-danger shots on goal (14). During the 2022-23 season (Tkachuk’s first with Panthers), he was tied for third in the entire NHL in high-danger goals (31) and ranked fifth in high-danger shots on goal (158).

Considering the Panthers already rank in the NHL's top 10 in high-danger goals (79; tied for ninth) this season, Tkachuk’s return could help them reach another gear. Ahead of Tkachuk’s season debut, the Panthers already have five players with at least eight high-danger goals: Brad Marchand (14; tied for 10th in entire NHL), Sam Bennett (13), Sam Reinhart (12), Carter Verhaeghe (nine) and Anton Lundell (eight). Last season, Tkachuk’s most-frequent linemates at even strength were Bennett and Verhaeghe.

2. Offensive zone time percentage

Last regular season, Tkachuk ranked in the 97th percentile among forwards in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (47.5) and 93rd percentile at even strength (44.2). In the 2025 postseason, Tkachuk ranked in the 97th percentile in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (48.6). During the 2023-24 regular season, Tkachuk led NHL forwards and ranked third in the entire League in offensive zone time percentage (49.8).

In the absence of Tkachuk and fellow elite forward Aleksander Barkov (knee surgery; long-term injured reserve) this season, the Panthers still rank eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (51.9 through first 47 games). When Barkov was healthy and Tkachuk played more than half of last regular season, the Panthers ranked second in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (55.1) behind the Carolina Hurricanes (58.4).

3. Power-play skating distance

Tkachuk’s return should also boost the Panthers on the power play; without Tkachuk and Barkov, Florida ranks 22nd in power-play conversion percentage (18.6). The Panthers were tied for 13th in that category last regular season (23.5) and ranked eighth in 2023-24 (23.5).

Last regular season, Tkachuk ranked in the 89th percentile among forwards in power-play offensive zone time percentage (62.4). During the 2025 postseason, when he was playing with a lingering injury, Tkachuk was among the leaders in the following power-play categories:

• Power-play skating distance: 11.22 miles (third among forwards and 99th percentile; fifth in entire NHL).
• Power-play goals: 5 (tied with Corey Perry for most in 2025 playoffs).
• Power-play points: 11 (second in 2025 playoffs behind Leon Draisaitl’s 12).