NHL EDGE stats behind Caufield’s ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy chances

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics surrounding Cole Caufield’s late-season push for the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy.

Cole Caufield is having a career year in goal-scoring and, with elite underlying metrics, could catch or eclipse Nathan MacKinnon to win or claim a share of the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy.

Caufield, who has scored an NHL career-high 51 goals in 79 games this season, only trails MacKinnon (52 goals in 78 games) by one goal in the race for the award given to the NHL’s regular-season goal leader(s). Caufield is by far the NHL’s leading goal-scorer since Jan. 1 with 32 goals over that 40-game span. Caufield, who became the seventh different Montreal Canadiens player to score 50 goals in a season, is the first since Stephane Richer in 1989-90.

Montreal has two games remaining, while Colorado has three games left but could rest or manage minutes for MacKinnon and/or some of his other high-scoring teammates after clinching the Presidents’ Trophy for the most points in the NHL standings.

MacKinnon has won the Hart Trophy in 2024 as the NHL’s most valuable player in the regular season and Stanley Cup with Colorado in 2022 but has never won the “Rocket” Richard Trophy. There have only been two occasions in the past 20 years where the “Rocket” Richard Trophy was shared between two players in a single season: 2020 (Alex Ovechkin, David Pastrnak finished tied with 48 goals each) and 2010 (Sidney Crosby and Steven Stamkos finished tied with 51 goals each).

Caufield leads the NHL in game-winning goals (12), overtime goals (five; tied for second-most in NHL history behind Leon Draisaitl’s six last season) and 5-on-5 goals (33; two ahead of MacKinnon’s 31). MacKinnon leads the NHL in shots on goal (344), while Caufield ranks 15th (247), so Caufield’s higher shooting percentage (20.6; compared to MacKinnon’s 15.1) has helped him close the gap. It’s also worth noting Caufield, who’s in his sixth NHL season, has increased his goal total in each passing campaign.

Here are three underlying storylines behind Caufield’s eye-opening push for the “Rocket” Richard Trophy:

1. Snap shot goals

Caufield is tied with Wyatt Johnston of the Dallas Stars for the most snap shot goals in the NHL this season (27 each) and leads the NHL in snap shots on goal (133). Caufield has scored 29 go-ahead goals, the second most in a single season in NHL history behind Brett Hull (39 in 1990-91). 

Although Caufield does not rank particularly high among forwards in max shot speed (88.00 mph; 69th percentile) or average shot speed (55.65; 75th percentile), he’s among the leaders at his position in shot attempts from both the 80-90 mph range (29; 91st percentile) and 70-80 range (90; 95th percentile). Caufield’s shot is deceptive and opportunistic, making his clutch goal-scoring even more impressive.  

2. Goals/shots by location

Caufield ranks in the top 10 in both midrange goals (18, tied for third) and high-danger goals (22; tied for eighth). He also ranks highly in midrange shots on goal (80; 95th percentile) and high-danger shots on goal (75; 94th percentile).

Caufield has had 12 multigoal games this season, including two hat tricks. Caufield’s goal-scoring versatility and pinpoint accuracy, often sneaking in goals from in tight and difficult angles above the goalie’s shoulders, has helped him keep up with MacKinnon, who ranks near the top of the NHL in all three major shot locations (99th percentile in both midrange and long-range goals; 96th percentile in high-danger goals).

3. Offensive zone time percentage

Caufield ranks in the 94th percentile in offensive zone time percentage (46.0) this season. Caufield has a plus-90 shot attempts differential at 5-on-5, as do defenseman Lane Hutson (plus-128) and center Nick Suzuki (plus-91), Caufield’s frequent running mates at even strength and on the first power play.

Montreal has arguably the best 25-and-younger core in the NHL with Caufield, Hutson, Caufield’s other frequent linemate Juraj Slafkovsky (No. 1 pick in 2022 NHL Draft) and impact rookie forwards Ivan Demidov, Oliver Kapanen, and rookie goalies Jacob Fowler and Jakub Dobes. And the Canadiens’ young captain Suzuki is only 26 years old and has shown perennial improvement in points, closing in on his first 100-point season (99 in 80 games).

While the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference are up for grabs this season, Caufield’s goal-scoring prowess and Montreal’s top line has put the entire NHL on notice and give the Canadiens a high ceiling both this season and beyond.