NHL EDGE stats: Ruff emerges as Jack Adams contender for Sabres

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics surrounding the Buffalo Sabres and coach Lindy Ruff’s case for the Jack Adams Award.

The Buffalo Sabres are in the midst of a remarkable turnaround with 15 wins in their past 17 games and strong advanced metrics over that span, catapulting Lindy Ruff into the Jack Adams Award race for coach of the year.

The stretch, which coincides with Buffalo firing GM Kevyn Adams on Dec. 15 and replacing him with Jarmo Kekäläinen, includes 12 wins in the past 14 games since that move. Ruff, who won the Adams Award in 2005-06 during his first of two tenures with the Sabres and was re-hired by the team on April 22, 2024, has Buffalo in Stanley Cup Playoff position past the halfway point this season. Since Dec. 9, the Sabres rank third in the NHL in goals per game (3.76) behind the Tampa Bay Lightning (4.38) and Colorado Avalanche (4.13).

Although there are other Jack Adams contenders from both elite teams (e.g. Jared Bednar of Avalanche, Jon Cooper of Lightning) and also other surprising teams (e.g. Todd McLellan of Detroit Red Wings), the deciding factor in this year’s race could be if Ruff helps Buffalo end its 14-season playoff drought (since 2010-11; longest active streak in NHL). Buffalo also has the League’s longest active postseason series win drought (18 seasons; since 2006-07).

Ruff ranks fourth all-time in NHL coaching wins (926) and third among active coaches behind Joel Quenneville of the Anaheim Ducks (991) and Paul Maurice of the Florida Panthers (940); the all-time leader is Scotty Bowman (1,244). Ruff coached Buffalo to the Stanley Cup Final in 1999 (lost to Dallas Stars) and also the Eastern Conference Final in 1998, 1999, 2006 and 2007.

Here are three underlying metrics storylines surrounding the Sabres’ hot stretch and reasons Ruff can be considered a bona fide Jack Adams contender:

1. Goaltending improvement

Since the start of Buffalo’s turnaround on Dec. 9, its three-goalie rotation has shown significant improvement. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 6-1-0 with a .928 save percentage in seven games over that span, while Colten Ellis is 2-1-0 with a .913 save percentage in four games over that span. Alex Lyon, who was instrumental in the start of Buffalo’s run, is 7-0-0 with a .919 save percentage since Dec. 9 but has not played since Dec. 29 because of injury.

Since Dec. 9, Buffalo ranks fifth in the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage (.931 over past 17 games) after having the fifth-worst 5-on-5 save percentage (.891) over their first 29 games. Over that more-recent span, the Sabres are allowing the second-fewest goals per game (2.35) and are tied for second in team save percentage (.918), only trailing the Avalanche in each category (2.25 goals allowed per game; .921 team save percentage).

Each of the Sabres’ three goalies has excelled in a different save percentage by location this season: Ellis ranks in the 98th percentile in midrange save percentage (.941), Lyon ranks in the 85th percentile in long-range save percentage (.983), and Luukkonen ranks in the 76th percentile in high-danger save percentage (.836; well above NHL average of .811).

2. Secondary scoring

The Sabres have 10 skaters with at least 10 points since Dec. 9, the most such players in the NHL over that span. Buffalo also has 10 players with at least four goals over that span, including three defensemen.

Since Dec. 9, forward Tage Thompson is tied for the NHL lead in even-strength goals (11) and is also among the League leaders in goals (12; tied for fourth), points (26 in 17 games; tied for seventh) and even-strength points (18; tied for sixth). Thompson leads NHL forwards in 90-plus mph shots (25) this season and ranks fifth at the position in both hardest shot (97.94 mph) and midrange goals (12).

Beyond the impact of the Sabres’ top skaters in Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin and Alex Tuch, Buffalo has seen some surprising performances this season and especially in recent weeks. Forward Josh Doan, who was acquired from the Utah Mammoth as part of the JJ Peterka trade in the offseason, ranks seventh in the entire NHL in high-danger shots on goal (65) this season and has Buffalo’s second-most goals (seven) over their past 17 games.

Forward Jack Quinn has been a standout among forwards in 20-plus mph speed bursts (103; 90th percentile), while forward Beck Malenstyn ranks fifth in the entire NHL in max skating speed (24.06 mph). Forward Ryan McLeod, who’s second on the Sabres in points over their past 17 games (15; five goals, 10 assists), leads the entire NHL in skating distance per 60 minutes (11.00 miles) this season.

3. Defenseman standouts

The all-around play of Buffalo’s defensemen has gone a long way in both their offensive outburst and improved goaltending. Since Dec. 9, the Sabres have scored 34 high-danger goals and allowed 17 high-danger goals; Buffalo’s high-danger goal differential (plus-17) over that span ranks second in the NHL behind the Lightning (plus-18).

Buffalo ranks sixth in high-danger goals (80) this season, with its defensemen accounting for eight high-danger goals (second most behind Ducks’ 10). The Sabres are also near the top of the NHL in advanced stats like average shot speed (59.64; fifth), 90-plus mph shots (48; fifth) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (1,230; sixth). Since Dec. 9, Buffalo has been particularly dominant in the second period of games; the Sabres are outscoring opponents 25-9 in that frame and are 12-0-0 when leading after two periods over their hot streak.

Buffalo, led by its top four on defense in Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram, Mattias Samuelsson and Owen Power, is tied for second in high-danger shots on goal by defensemen (32) this season and ranks third in midrange shots on goal by defensemen (99). Dahlin, who ranks in the 94th percentile or higher among defensemen in all three shots by location categories (high-danger, midrange and long-range), is among the top 10 at his position in both midrange (34; tied for seventh) and long-range shots on goal (57; 10th). Byram is tied for sixth in high-danger shots on goal among defensemen (11) and also tied with his teammate Samuelsson for third among defensemen in midrange goals (six each).

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