Zibanejad expects to keep strong play going for Rangers in Cup Qualifiers

Mika Zibanejad was in a zone that made him the envy of goal-scorers everywhere before the NHL season was paused.

"I feel like everything went in," the New York Rangers forward said.

Not everything, but enough to make Zibanejad the League's hottest player and best finisher in the six weeks before the pause began March 12 due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus.

Zibanejad scored a NHL-high 23 goals in 22 games from Jan. 31 until the pause. During that span, he scored on 26.4 percent of his 87 shots on goal, including on eight of his 24 shots on goal on the power play (33.3 percent).

No NHL player with more than 25 shots on goal during that stretch had a better shooting percentage. Only Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl had a better shooting percentage (35.2 percent, 6-for-17) among the 36 players with at least 15 shots on goal on the power play during that stretch.

Zibanejad finished the season with 41 goals, fifth in the NHL. His average of 0.72 goals per game (57 games) led the NHL and was the most in a season since Steven Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning average 0.73 (60 goals in 82 games) in 2011-12 (minimum 20 games).

"It was flat-out amazing how well he was playing," Rangers president John Davidson said. "You wonder if a guy can step back in and be that hot to start this play-in round. We certainly hope so, but boy oh boy, I'd take 80 percent of that, that's how good he was."

Eighty percent of Zibanejad's prepause production is a reasonable expectation when the Rangers resume play in the best-of-5 Stanley Cup Qualifiers against the Carolina Hurricanes at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, the Eastern Conference hub city, on Aug. 1. The winner will advance to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The analytics showed that Zibanejad was taking his already strong game to a sustainable, elite level, not simply on a hot streak, according to former Rangers goalie Steve Valiquette, the CEO, founder and owner of Clear Sight Analytics, a player-based performance data company that works with several NHL teams and builds its models around the quality of scoring chances.

"I like to look at what's repeatable, and when you get that many scoring chances, and they're of the highest level of quality too, it's [repeatable]," Valiquette said.

Valiquette's rundown of Zibanejad in the final 22 games showed an expected goals total of 12 based on the quality of his 73 scoring chances. That he scored 23 goals doesn't alarm Valiquette because Zibanejad consistently scored on high-percentage shots (inside the slot area or just around the net), and because he routinely worked to get into those high-percentage zones on the ice.

"Usually when someone is on a shooting percentage bender like that, some of those chances are low-percentage chances but they're going in," said Valiquette, who also works as a broadcaster for Rangers studio shows on MSG Network. "During that stretch, only three of his goals would be qualified to us as low-percentage goals."

Valiquette is talking about goals from one-timers that come from outside the slot area (Zibanejad had one), or on clear-sighted shots for the goalie. Zibanejad scored one goal on 20 shots when the goalie had a clear view of the puck, Valiquette said. He did not score an empty-net goal.

"If you look at somebody on a heater you're usually going to see, like, five goals on clear-sighted shots, three or four one-timer goals," Valiquette said. "For the success rate to be repeatable you don't want to see that."

Zibanejad's success also might trace to a small but impactful equipment change. This season, he changed the lie on his stick by shortening the shaft while lengthening the amount of tape he uses going down from his top hand.

"He tapes it three-quarters of the way down his stick, and on a lot of his goals he'll choke down, get right down on one knee, almost hiding behind the goal line but elevating everything," Valiquette said. "He does that as well as anyone in the NHL, and that's why he's a finisher."

Zibanejad scored on five of his eight slap shots in the final 22 games.

"He gets all that leverage from under the puck," Valiquette said. "Skills coaches refer to it as a one knee, one T. It definitely wasn't that popular when I played, but you see the best finishers in the game and they know how to get down and get the puck up."

Valiquette noted one outlier in Zibanejad's success was that he was 7-for-7 on screened shots.

Zibanejad should have scored on maybe two of those seven shots based on the type of scoring chance and the rate of save for the goalie, Valiquette said. It would have dropped him to 18 goals in those final 22 games, still a 67-goal pace during an 82-game season.

"That's the one where I was like, 'OK, I don't know if that's repeatable because he really shouldn't be hitting 7-for-7,'" Valiquette said. "But that's what a hot streak usually looks like."

That outlier isn't enough for Valiquette to change his opinion that Zibanejad was a player taking his game to the next level, generating repeatable chances and scoring at a high rate because of his ability to finish.

"That was a player that yes got hot, but it was a player that sustained how hot he got," Davidson said.

It all leads to the conclusion that most of what Zibanejad was doing before the pause is what should be expected of him when the games resume. Say, close to 80 percent.

"I want to say the whole season I felt like I took another step, right from Day One," Zibanejad said. "Obviously that's more highlighted in my season, the last little bit there. But it felt like I took a lot of steps this season before the pause. I don't know if I'm going be able to score at that rate all the time, but I'm hoping that was proving mostly to myself that I am able to take the next step."