Swayman vs. Luukkonen goalie matchup in Eastern Conference First Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, NHL.com charted 100 goals against each goaltender late in the regular season to see what patterns emerge. Here is the comparison between Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen of the Buffalo Sabres

The Eastern Conference First Round between the Boston Bruins and Buffalo Sabres features two goalies, each 27, who has bounced back from a down season to put themselves in the conversation among the game’s best. 

Jeremy Swayman should get Vezina Trophy consideration for his season in Boston, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s strong finish behind the resurgent Sabres hints at him working his way into that conversation soon. Each goalie moves incredibly well, especially for his size, but each has a different tactical approach and strengths that show up in his goal chart. Each might require a different approach to attacking each in this best-of-7 series. 

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins

Swayman has bounced back from his worst NHL season in a big way, hitting the 30-win milestone for the first time with a .908 save percentage while being tied for facing the seventh-most most high-danger shots in the League, according to NHL Edge puck and player statistics. Given he had a .933 save percentage in his only previous chance as the Bruins undisputed No. 1 in the 2024 playoffs, Swayman has already shown he can be a difference-maker in big games.

Traffic: The 21 screen goals in this sample are among the highest total tracked, well above the 15.1 percent average for the more than 10,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017. It’s seemingly tied to a tendency to look around bodies in front of the net from a low, flexed stance rather than trying to look over them from a taller stance. Swayman was in that lower stance on 16 of the 21 goals. A tendency by Boston defenders to stand beside screening forwards makes it even harder to find a sight line from the position Swayman prefers to assume. He also likes to get to the edge of his crease and will engage with forwards trying to screen him there. He mostly holds that ice but will drift off the release, which helps his recovery if the shot hits a body in front and bounces to the sides. But, it opens the net high if stays in a dangerous area, with 12 of these 21 goals scored in the top corners. 

Left to right down low: It’s hard to ignore the 19 goals along the ice outside the right skate on Swayman. Eight were rebounds and most others are representative of backdoor tap-ins. A discrepancy that big compared to outside the left skate warrants a second look even if some of it is caused by defensive deficiencies that may contribute to more low laterals in that direction. Most goalies have one side with which they move better, and for most it’s the glove side. So, perhaps it’s not surprising Swayman, despite being one of the League’s most mobile goalies even from a low, wide stance, seems more likely to reach with the stick rather than push across to his blocker, eight times among those 19 goals. 

East-west and up: Despite the above-mentioned trend to his right, Swayman still has top-5 results on lateral plays in tight and his ability to hold his edges and still generate lateral push power deep in his stance make it important to elevate over the pads. If it doesn’t happen, the chance to make a momentum-changing save, especially on the glove side, exists. 

Low blocker, high glove: The high totals may be similar between the glove and blocker side, and the reality is none of these numbers represent a save percentage, but eight of 11 clean-look goals came on the blocker side above the pads, compared to just one on the glove side. If there was a trend worth noting among Swayman’s excellent glove-side results, it’s to shoot high, rather than low, in one-on-one situations because Swayman holds his glove in a more natural, neutral and lower “handshake position.”  Each of the four breakaway goals on the glove side were scored above the glove.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres 

This season’s sample size is smaller (85 goals) on Luukkonen because of injuries and a job share for long stretches with Alex Lyon, but the skilled 6-foot-5 Finland-born goalie does appear to have cemented the starting job for the playoffs. Luukkonen, who moves well on his skates, especially for his size, was top-10 in the NHL with a .910 save percentage this season. He has been even better since missing the 2026 Winter Olympics because of a lower-body injury, going 11-2-1 with a .920 save percentage. It’s a hot streak that should help alleviate any concerns about his lack of experience.

Right to left down low: The 16 goals (18.8 percent) along the ice outside the left skate is high. It’s indicative of tap-ins on backdoor plays and tough bounces, including seven rebounds on the 24 total goals along the ice outside each pad. While the goalie often has little chance on these, there were a couple trends on the low passes across the middle of the ice, which accounted for 12 goals, worth noting in each direction. The first was squaring up on puck carriers as they got deeper in the zone on the wing, including sometimes using overlapping the post on plays below the circles. This makes it harder to rotate for a push across the ice. Even when Luukkonen uses the reverse-VH on those sharp-angle plays, which puts more coverage inside the net, there was a tendency to leave the inside leg facing up ice, again delaying a lateral push. 

Other way higher in zone: Plays and passes across the middle of the ice accounted for 25 of the goals (29.4 percent), well above the 22.1-tracked average. But unlike the down-low trends to his left, six of the eight goals on passes above the hash marks were left to right and forced him to move to his blocker side. Luukkonen moves well for his size, but it’s not uncommon for goalies to have slight delays moving to their blocker, which combined with his more conservative positioning on passes from low to high, seemed to be a factor.

Rebounds further out: Luukkonen’s 13 rebound goals (15.3 percent) weren’t too far above the tracked average of 11.7 percent but it’s worth noting that his Bauer pads are designed to purposely produce faster, longer rebounds that hop past sticks and give him time to recover. As a result, chances off low shots tends to come from further out, often in the face-off circles or hash marks in the middle. 

Early shots in alone? The 11 breakaway goals include one-on-one chances but it was notable that on the clear-cut chances, six of eight goals came on early shots from above the hash marks. Luukkonen is aggressive with his early depth and then retreats to match the speed, so perhaps a sign they’re catching Luukkonen in motion.