Oettinger vs. Gustavsson goalie matchup in Western Conference 1st Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, NHL.com charted 100 goals against each goaltender late in the regular season to see what patterns emerge. Here is the comparison between Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars and Filip Gustavsson of the Minnesota Wild.

The Western Conference First Round between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild features goalies with very different playoff experiences.

Jake Oettinger has made 63 playoff starts for Dallas and been to the Western Conference Final three straight seasons with a career .913 save percentage in the playoffs. Filip Gustavsson has enjoyed similar regular-season success in four seasons with the Wild, but has yet to win a playoff series despite a .917 save percentage in two series.

How well each team identifies and attacks the relative strengths and weaknesses of these two talented goalies in this best-of-7 series could go a long way in determining whether that discrepancy in playoff success continues this season.

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars

Oettinger remains among the NHL win leaders despite his save percentage dropping to a career low .899. At times, he appeared to be making adjustments that should serve him well as one of the most heavily scouted goalies in the past three playoffs. He seemed to get better as the playoffs went on last season but won't have much runway in a tough first-round matchup.

Against grain, especially glove side: Shots against the flow of play accounted for 30 percent of the tracked goals on Oettinger this season, way above the 18.4-percent average for the more than 10,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017. Eighteen of those were scored on the glove side, including 15 over the glove where a tendency to sometimes get overly square on plays down the left wing can leave the back-side shoulder behind. As such, additional exposure is created for shots as he moves.

East-West early: Oettinger's 23 goals on plays across the middle of the ice are close to the 22.1 percent tracked average, but nine came on passes above the hashmarks, which is above the norm. It's been a trend in past seasons, a tendency to get out early and retreat with the rush leaves him exposed on quick shots off east-west passes higher in the zone because of the extra distance he has to cover. That's happened less this season, with Oettinger typically (but not always) taking less ice off the rush. The results have been similar, and he hasn't always looked comfortable being deeper in his crease on open looks after moving. Shots against the grain on the glove side play a role in that.

Wait for him to widen: Oettinger also appeared to do a better job of keeping his skates under him more this season, a trend that goalies around the NHL have embraced in an effort to counter the increase in lateral offense. Despite that, his transition into save stance, which is lower and wider than many peers, remains one of the more abrupt and distinct in the League. Waiting for that move before passing makes it harder for him to stay with lateral plays and maintain good rotation into a new angle. It often forces a flat slide that makes it harder to get back to the far post on back-door passes below the hashmarks.

Blocker side on clean looks? High blocker being the highest number on Oettinger's chart doesn't match historical trends for a goalie this project has tracked significantly. It also doesn't represent a save percentage, but 25 percent is well above this season's tracked average of 17.8. It includes 10 of 22 clean looks, with six more clean-shot goals scored low on the blocker side. His tendency to get low and wide in his pre-save stance can make it harder for him to catch up with shots to the blocker, compared to his glove, which he holds in a fingers-up position that typically allows him better access to high shots on the glove side.

Quick release: One-timers make it harder for any goalie to get set, so they are always a good idea. Against Oettinger, they were the primary factor on 12 percent of the goals in this sample, well above the tracked average of 7.4 percent.

Filip Gustavsson

Minnesota Wild

Gustavsson seems likely to start, given his experience. But his save percentage down to .904 this season and he was expected to be the starting goalie for Sweden at the 2026 Winter Olympics. However, he lost that job during the tournament, so the leash may be shorter for Gustavsson, given how well backup and fellow Swede Jesper Wallstedt has played this season, including a .916 save percentage and an even wider discrepancy (.895 to .919) between the two since the Olympics.

Look for second chances in tight: There aren't a lot of obvious statistical weaknesses in Gustavsson's game, which matches the eye test of a balanced, technically strong approach that is without a lot of extremes. That makes the 31 goals scored along the ice outside the pads -- well above the 24.3-percent tracked average -- stand out. It was mostly a combination of rebounds (13 total, which is only slightly worse than the 11.7-percent average) and broken play bounces and scrambles (27 total, almost double the 14-percent average). Gustavsson plays a controlled, compact style, a narrow butterfly limits low coverage and delays lateral recoveries compared to Oettinger.

Traffic increases those second chances: Gustavsson manages screens well in terms of direct goals, with 13 percent in this sample below the 15.1-tracked average. A tendency to slide, rather than shift, into longer shots with traffic can create more of those rebounds, which were a primary factor on 11 goals, and scramble situations that catch him in motion, contributing to the higher-than-expected goal totals along the ice on both sides.

Left to right down low: Low lateral passes across the middle of the ice also contributed to the goal totals along the ice, but among the back-door plays a notable trend emerged: the tendency to reach with the stick and dive headfirst more when moving right. Sometimes it was caused by a tendency to push out to the middle, then back across, and other times he got caught sliding left first, a trend on passes and plays near or below the right face-off dot. With 16 of the 23 goals off east-west plays across the middle of the ice coming from below the hashmarks, both are trends worth noting when Gustavsson is forced to push right, even if the higher goal total was outside the pad to his left.

Wait for that slide on laterals: That tendency to slide on plays higher in the zone than many of his peers can delay his ability go back the other way on shots or additional passes against the grain because he has to first grab a skate edge to stop the slide.

Over the pads, or between, on clean looks: Goal totals are not the same as save percentages but the numbers are notably better high-glove and blocker compared to the tracked average, and 10 of 18 clean-look goals, including breakaways and partial breakaways, were scored just over the pads, and partial-break goals were scored five-hole, where a tendency of pulling heels back during a drop to the ice creates exposure.

Stretch him out low: Gustavsson manages his posts very well from sharp angles and plays behind the net, not at all shocking for a Swedish goalie. He does have a tendency to push across a bit flat on downhill lateral passes from higher in the zone rather than getting back to his posts. It's great for cutting off pucks into the slot but can leave him susceptible inside that far post if the play is stretched wide. Similarly, a tendency to square up on threats on the wing deeper into the zone makes for a longer path and more difficult rotation on laterals returning to the far post, which was another factor in all those goals along the ice outside his pads, especially on his left side.