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NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we preview the Eastern Conference Second Round series between the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes.

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The Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes have advanced to the Eastern Conference Second Round and will meet in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2019, when Carolina won the best-of-7 series in seven games.

This year’s matchup, which features the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer in forward Alex Ovechkin (897 career regular-season goals) facing the League’s puck-possession juggernaut in the Hurricanes, brings plenty of underlying numbers that can decide the series.

Here are three key advanced stats insights entering the Capitals-Hurricanes series:

NHL EDGE STATS COVERAGE:

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1. Ovechkin’s shot metrics

At 39 years old, Ovechkin is coming off one of the best regular seasons of his career; he ranked second in the NHL in goals per game (0.68; 44 goals in 65 games). Despite missing time because of a broken leg, surpassed Wayne Gretzky (894 career goals) for the most goals in NHL history during the GR8 CHASE.

Ovechkin has 107 points (52 goals, 55 assists) in 93 regular-season games against the Hurricanes, his most career points against any NHL opponent. Ovechkin has 146 points (76 goals, 70 assists) in 156 career postseason games, including nine points (four goals, five assists) in seven games against Carolina during the 2019 playoffs.

Per NHL EDGE stats, Ovechkin had a robust advanced stats profile during the regular season and has carried it into the playoffs; he ranks highly among forwards in the following categories this postseason:

Top shot speed: 96.61 mph (99th percentile)
Average shot speed: 66.34 mph (97th percentile)
Midrange shots on goal: 7 (93rd percentile)
Midrange goals: 3 (99th percentile)
Long-range shots on goal: 4 (97th percentile)
Offensive zone time percentage: 45.0 percent (80th percentile)

The Capitals took Game 5 to defeat the Canadiens in Round 1

2. Hurricanes’ offensive zone time percentage

Per NHL EDGE stats, the Hurricanes lead the League in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (45.1 percent) during the postseason, the percentage of time that the puck spends in the offensive zone while the game clock is running. Carolina also led the League in offensive zone time percentage during the regular season (47.2 percent). The Capitals, in terms of offensive zone time percentage during the regular season (40.7 percent), ranked below the League average (42.2 percent), Washington ranks ninth of 16 teams in offensive zone time percentage (42.3 percent) during the postseason.

This postseason, the Hurricanes have three of the top 10 NHL players in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths: defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere (51.8 percent; second) and forwards Andrei Svechnikov (50.6 percent; fourth) and Jesperi Kotkaniemi (48.6 percent; tied for eighth). Carolina also has three of the League's top 10 in offensive zone time percentage on the power play during the playoffs: forwards Seth Jarvis (66.5 percent; fifth) and Sebastian Aho (65.6 percent; ninth), followed by Gostisbehere (65.2 percent; 10th).

Carolina, which led the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (58.5 percent) for the third straight regular season, is tied for fourth in that category this postseason (55.8 percent; Washington is tied for 12th at 44.2 percent). While the Capitals have a better 5-on-5 shooting percentage (9.7 percent; seventh) so far in the playoffs compared to the Hurricanes (6.7 percent; 13th), Carolina was 2-1-1 against Washington during the regular season and outscored them 14-10, including 9-6 at 5-on-5.

3. Thompson’s midrange save percentage

Entering the Eastern Conference First Round series against the Montreal Canadiens, the Capitals had injury concerns surrounding No. 1 goalie Logan Thompson and top-six forward Aliaksei Protas. Thompson, despite an injury scare during the series, has played in all five playoff games for Washington so far, going 4-1 with a .923 save percentage (second among goalies who have played multiple games behind the Hurricanes' Frederik Andersen at .936 in four games); Protas returned for the series-clinching Game 5 win against the Canadiens. With an injury concern surrounding Andersen entering the second round, Thompson gives the Capitals an advantage compared to the backup options for Carolina (Pyotr Kochetkov, Spencer Martin).

Thompson, despite not being named a Vezina Trophy finalist, has been one of the breakout players across the NHL this season and helped the Capitals win the Eastern Conference after they were a fringe playoff team last season. The 28-year-old, who was acquired in a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights during the offseason, ranked second in winning percentage (72.09; 31 wins in 43 games; minimum 20 games) behind Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck (74.06; 47 wins in 63 games), and among the 30 goalies who played at least 40 games, was tied for eighth in even-strength save percentage (.918).

Per NHL EDGE stats, Thompson has excelled on his opponents’ shots on goal from midrange areas during the postseason; he has faced the fifth-most midrange shots on goal (40), ranks third in midrange saves (39) and second in midrange save percentage (.975; behind Andersen’s 1.000). This will be a crucial category with Thompson set to face the Hurricanes, who scored seven midrange goals during the first round against the New Jersey Devils, tied with the Colorado Avalanche for the most of any team through five playoff games.

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EDGE stats team comparison: WSH vs. CAR