Mailbag: Diving into Senators' struggles

Here is the Dec. 13 edition of Dan Rosen's weekly mailbag, which will run every Wednesday throughout the 2017-18 NHL season. If you have a question, tweet it to @drosennhl and use #OvertheBoards.
What do you make of the Ottawa Senators? Any thoughts on the rumor of management asking for the players' list of teams in regard to no-trade clauses? -- @TylerDonnellyTD

Two words: Market correction.
The Senators aren't as bad as their 1-10-2 record since Nov. 16. However, I also think they overachieved last season, when they reached the Eastern Conference Final, and, to a degree, early this season, when they were 8-3-5 in their first 16 games, including 3-0-2 without defenseman Erik Karlsson, their best player.
They averaged 3.63 goals per game their first 16 games. Considering their style of play, built on a counterattacking, 1-3-1 defensive system that feasts off opponents' mistakes, a regression was in order.
The Senators, who play the Montreal Canadiens in the Scotiabank NHL100 Classic at Lansdowne Park on Saturday (7 p.m. ET; NBCSN, CBC, SN, TVA Sports, NHL.TV), have been held to two or fewer goals in 11 of their past 13 games, including one or fewer in seven. They have been shut out four times. Their goals per game has dropped to 2.69, more in line with the type of team they are.
It goes back to last season too. The Senators made the Stanley Cup Playoffs despite being 22nd in the NHL and last among the 16 playoff teams with an average of 2.51 goals per game. They were 23rd on the power play (17.0 percent) and 22nd on the penalty kill (79.7 percent). They were good enough to make the playoffs in part because they were good in one-goal games (21-9-10), in part because they improved defensively in the final quarter of the season, and in part because their division wasn't as strong as the other three.

The Senators allowed 2.33 goals per game and went 11-6-4 in their final 21 games last season (.619 points percentage) after allowing 2.64 goals per game in their first 61 games, when they were 33-22-6 (.590 points percentage).
They finished second in the Atlantic Division with 98 points. The other second-place teams were the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Metropolitan Division (111 points), the Minnesota Wild in the Central Division (106) and the Edmonton Oilers in the Pacific Division (103).
Ottawa would have finished fifth in the Metropolitan, fourth in the Central and fourth in the Pacific.
The Senators didn't suddenly get much better in the playoffs either, but they found ways to get by, including winning two overtime games against the New York Rangers in the second round after scoring game-tying 6-on-5 goals late in regulation. Ottawa averaged 2.47 goals per game, fourth among the four teams that won at least two rounds.
Which brings us to the reports general manager Pierre Dorion is trying to identify his best trade chips now to either salvage the season or make a push to build for next season and beyond. This isn't a surprise. Dorion is doing his job. He can't sit on the sidelines and watch the season go off the rails without attempting to change the direction. He won't trade everyone, but he needs to look at all his cards, figure out the hand he has, and figure out the best way to play it.
Thoughts on what a healthy Marc-Andre Fleury can do for the Vegas Golden Knights? -- @maxaj97
A healthy Fleury, the Golden Knights' No. 1 goaltender, will stabilize the most important position for Vegas, which has realistic playoff aspirations. A healthy Fleury will fuel the confidence of those playing in front of him. A healthy Fleury, combined with a surging Malcolm Subban, will give the Golden Knights one of the better 1-2 goalie combinations. Vegas stayed in the playoff race without Fleury by discovering Subban, Maxime Lagace and Oskar Dansk can play in the NHL. That's the silver lining. Now that Fleury is back, the Golden Knights should be a better team.

Are you surprised by the Los Angeles Kings' resurgence this year? -- @NedRyerson1957
Only a little, because I didn't envision the Kings getting the kind of production and valuable minutes they've gotten from forwards Adrian Kempe, Alex Iafallo and the resurgent Dustin Brown. Those three, especially Kempe, a center, have helped the Kings overcome losing center Jeff Carter to an ankle injury and subsequent surgery. He hasn't played since Oct. 18.
We all knew if goaltender Jonathan Quick were healthy, it would make a huge difference for the Kings. It was a safe bet center Anze Kopitar would rebound after a tough season. I chalk up Kopitar's major dip in production last season (career-low 12 goals and 52 points for a full NHL season) to frustration and fatigue. Kopitar played in Olympic qualifying games for Slovenia and in the World Cup of Hockey 2016 for Team Europe before playing an NHL game last season. I think it caught up to him. He clearly had a good offseason, and the change in coaches from Darryl Sutter to John Stevens has allowed him more freedom and creativity.
The switch to Stevens has been a breath of fresh air. I think it helps that Stevens was there for the good times and the bad times as Sutter's top assistant. He saw firsthand how the players responded. It has helped him to learn how impactful feedback can be for older players, and how to communicate better since he coached the Philadelphia Flyers from 2006-09.

With how tight the Metropolitan Division is so far this season between the top six teams, can you see any one of the six winning it? -- @nyrprpokemon
I think that's fair to say, though I give the edge to the Columbus Blue Jackets. With goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and their depth, particularly at forward, I think they have the best chance to stay consistent throughout the rest of the season. The New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils, Washington Capitals, New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins tend to be more up and down, though the Islanders, Capitals and Rangers have certainly had a lot more ups than downs recently. The Blue Jackets are a more steady-on-the-rudder team. They'll give themselves an even better chance if they can get their power play clicking; it is last in the NHL (9.20 percent).

Why is it that the Carolina Hurricanes are the most consistently middling, and thus the most frustrating, team in the League? How do they get out of this rut? -- @everytimeidavid
The Hurricanes have surprised me. I thought they'd be further along. I picked them to make the playoffs as a wild card from the Eastern Conference. I know they don't have a franchise No. 1 center, but they have enough depth up front to generate better chances than they have been. They get shots on goal, but I'm not sure how many of them are Grade A quality.
They don't seem to respond well to giving up the first goal (2-8-5 when they do), and they aren't winning enough one-goal games (5-5-7). They play tight enough to get games into overtime, as they have done recently, but they aren't winning them (1-4 in games decided in OT, 4-7 in games decided after regulation).
Their defensemen are young: Trevor van Riemsdyk is 26, Justin Faulk is 25, Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin are 23, Haydn Fleury is 21, and Noah Hanifin, who has been very good this season, is 20. That group should improve. Scott Darling, 28, is growing into the role as a No. 1 goalie. That takes time.
It must be frustrating if you're a Hurricanes fan, because this is probably the most talented team coach Bill Peters has had in his four seasons in Carolina, yet it's not coming together. You want to say there is still time, but they're playing catch-up in the deepest division in the League. They need to get hot and have two of the top six teams crash just to get back in the race.

Do you think the Florida Panthers, Ottawa Senators, Chicago Blackhawks and Edmonton Oilers can pull it together and make the postseason? -- @sun_puck
Yes on the Blackhawks. Doubtful on the Oilers. No on the Panthers and Senators.
Maybe I'm guilty of a history bias, but I keep thinking the Blackhawks are going to go on a hot streak, climb the standings, pass the Dallas Stars and move into a firm wild card position in the Western Conference. That's not to say the Stars won't get in as a wild card too. The Blackhawks have the pedigree that suggests they'll do that, so I'm holding firm on my belief they will. They need to start winning against some of the better teams in the League, though. They have lost their past six games (0-3-3) against teams in a playoff position.
I'm afraid the Oilers may have dug themselves too deep a hole, not to mention they haven't shown any signs of a team about to go on the hot streak necessary to get back in the race. The Panthers are adjusting to coach Bob Boughner and their defensemen, though promising, have a lot of room to grow. Losing goaltender Roberto Luongo to a long-term injury is a tough blow. I addressed the Senators situation in my first answer.

Who are your choices for team captains for the All-Star Game? Also, should Brock Boeser be considered to play? -- @Final20Hockey
I chose my teams for the 2018 Honda NHL All-Star Game in the Nov. 29 edition of the mailbag. From that list, I'll go with Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin, Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos, St. Louis Blues defenseman Alex Pietrangelo (even though he's on injured reserve), and Kopitar as the four captains. The most obvious pick is Stamkos. The game is in Tampa and he has been terrific. It's going to be his weekend to shine.
I picked Boeser, a rookie forward, to be on my Pacific Division all-star team as the Vancouver Canucks representative. He deserves it. In addition to leading NHL rookies with 16 goals and being tied with Islanders center Mathew Barzal for the most points with 28, Boeser is first on the Canucks in goals and points. He has been their best player and thus deserves to represent them in Tampa. Don't be alarmed that his name isn't among the 26 from the Pacific Division included in the 2018 NHL All-Star Fan Vote. That's for captains. Boeser doesn't deserve that honor, but he deserves to make the team.