Predicting NHL award winners, according to NHL.com’s Dan Rosen

Welcome to the National Hockey List. Each week, NHL.com Senior Writer Dan Rosen will provide a list dealing with important topics around the NHL. Today, Rosen lists his favorites to win the Hart Trophy, Vezina Trophy, Calder Trophy, Norris Trophy and Jack Adams Award this season.

It's trophy tracker week here at NHL.com, which always brings about debate, arguments, questions, the works. There are no actual fights, at least I don't think, but there surely is some name-calling on social media with the fans who disagree or have their own opinions and are free to share them, passively or aggressively.

We can handle the heat. 

I am one of 16 voters who contribute to our trophy tracker series that runs five times each season; early season, first quarter, midpoint, quarter pole and end of season.

The predicted winners below may or may not coincide with the results of the voting for each award. It doesn't really matter, though.

If it's a match, well that's great. 

If it is not a match, well then clearly the rest of the voters got it wrong because I am right.

See what I mean.

Here are my predicted winners for some of the major regular-season awards, reasons why I'll be correct, and the candidates who will be the runner-up and the third-place finisher:

Hart Trophy: Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks

Celebrini's lower-body injury does not appear to be too serious with coach Ryan Warsofsky saying on Tuesday that the 20-year-old center is day to day. 

Let's hope day to day means exactly that, and Celebrini won't miss more than a handful of games, because it is already his time to be the most valuable player to his team in the NHL.

Realistically, Celebrini likely would have been the Hart Trophy winner last season if the Sharks made the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He was fourth in the League with 115 points (45 goals, 70 assists). He had 56 more points than anyone else on his team.

Mario Lemieux in 1987-88 is the last of the five players who won the Hart Trophy in seasons that their teams did not make the playoffs dating to Billy Burch in 1924-25. Making the playoffs is technically not part of the criteria to win the award, but it might as well be.

Celebrini finished fourth in the Hart Trophy voting last season.

He'll be first this season because the Sharks will make the playoffs and he, again assuming his injury isn't serious, will be the biggest reason they do.

The Sharks are better this season so Celebrini shouldn't have to score 115 points or more to get his team into the playoffs and win the Hart Trophy. That doesn't mean he won't. He certainly can, especially with two more games at his disposal.

And, to be fair, we already have 60 minutes of evidence of what the Sharks are without him.

They lost 5-0 to the Dallas Stars on Monday without him.

He needs to return ASAP.

The other two finalists will be, in order: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche; Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

Vezina Trophy: Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals

Thompson got off to a strong start with 31 saves in a 5-2 win against the Carolina Hurricanes in Washington's season opener Friday. He should start in the Capitals home opener against the Pittsburgh Penguins at Capital One Arena on Wednesday (7:30 p.m. ET; HBO MAX, TNT).

The 29-year-old goalie was fourth in the Vezina Trophy voting last season, when Washington did not make the playoffs. He's playing behind a better team this season that should be one of the top teams in the Metropolitan Division and a lock to make the playoffs.

Thompson's resume is excellent if still underrated. He is 119-59-23 with a 2.56 goals-against average and .912 save percentage in 205 NHL regular-season games, including 196 starts. He is 7-7 in the playoffs with a 2.40 GAA and .918 save percentage.

He is already one of the best goalies in the NHL and Canada's favorite to be the No. 1 goalie at the 2028 World Cup of Hockey. 

Thompson will go there with a Vezina Trophy on his resume as he leads the Capitals back into the playoffs this season.

The other two finalists will be, in order: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning; Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers

Calder Trophy: Porter Martone, Philadelphia Flyers

It's been a rough start for Martone and the Flyers four games into the season. They're 0-2-2 and Martone has no points with a minus-2 rating. He's been on the ice for four goals against, including a short-handed goal in a 7-0 loss season-opening loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

But Martone will not be deterred. He will go to the net. He will play a physical game. He will score. He will hit. He might fight. He will be a pain in the butt. He will contribute. And the Flyers will get out of their early-season rut.

You could see signs of Martone getting his game going in the Flyers' 4-1 loss to the Lightning on Monday. He forced his way to the net and nearly scored his first goal of the season. He drew penalties. He was a minus-2 but at times a force in his 14:36 of ice time.

Martone gave us all some insight into what he is capable of last season, when he had 10 points (four goals, six assists) in nine regular-season games after signing his entry-level contract coming out of Michigan State. He had five points (two goals, three assists) in 10 playoff games.

He has 80 games to play. Martone will shine.

The other two finalists will be, in order: Cole Hutson, Washington Capitals; Gavin McKenna, Toronto Maple Leafs

Norris Trophy: Quinn Hughes, Minnesota Wild

Come on, this one should be obvious.

Hughes is already one of the NHL's best defensemen, a Norris Trophy winner in 2023-24 when he was playing for the Vancouver Canucks. He was seventh in the voting last season, when his season was broken up by the trade to the Wild on Dec. 12, 2025.

Who knows, Hughes could be on the move again this season if he and the Wild can't agree on a new contract. He's in the last year of his deal and can become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. Hughes has said he's not in a hurry to sign, that he would do it on his timetable. 

If he doesn't sign, or says that he won't, the Wild could be forced to trade him simply just to avoid losing one of the best players in the game for nothing. 

Regardless, Hughes, again, already one of the best defensemen in the League, is in a contract year and looking to beat Cale Makar's record-breaking $20.4 million per year contract he signed with the Colorado Avalanche in late August.

Hughes has all the motivation to have a monster season. He already has a goal and two assists in Minnesota's first two games.

The other two finalists will be, in order: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche; Matthew Schaefer, New York Islanders

Jack Adams Award: Martin St. Louis, Montreal Canadiens

It was a brilliant move by the Canadiens to hire St. Louis on Feb. 9, 2022, even though many critics at the time wondered about bringing a neophyte coach into one of hockey's hottest cauldrons.

St. Louis then was the right person for the job because of his ability to relate to the players, to energize and motivate them, to teach the game and to develop and empower professionals at the same time.

The Canadiens have gotten progressively better with St. Louis; from 68 points in his first full season (2022-23) to 76 points in his second season, 91 and an unexpected playoff berth in his third and 106 and a trip to the Eastern Conference Final in his fourth, last season.

St. Louis never stopped growing his game during his Hall of Fame playing career and he won't allow the Canadiens to stop growing their game in what could one day be a Hall of Fame coaching career.

Montreal will build on its 106-point season. It will finish first in the Atlantic Division. St. Louis will win the Jack Adams Award. And the Canadiens will win the Stanley Cup, which has nothing to do with the Jack Adams Award but certainly would validate St. Louis as the winner.

The other two finalists will be, in order: Spencer Carbery, Washington Capitals; Ryan Warsofsky, San Jose Sharks