Top breakthrough playoff candidates, according to NHL.com’s Dan Rosen

Welcome to the National Hockey List. Each week, NHL.com senior writer Dan Rosen will provide a list dealing with important topics around the NHL. Today, he lists, in order, his top six teams that missed the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the best chance to qualify this season.

Sometimes it comes down to simple math.

Since the NHL adopted the current playoff format in 2013-14, the average season-to-season turnover rate for teams making the postseason is 5.5. In easier terms, that means an average of 5.5 teams that didn't make the playoffs last season are going to make it this season.

There was a six-team turnover last season. It was a five-team turnover two seasons ago. You get the picture.

So, which teams that missed the playoffs last season have the best chance to make it this season?

Since I can't rank half a team, I rounded up, and here are the top six, starting with the most likely to do it, and probably the most obvious one.

1. Florida Panthers

They missed the playoffs last season yet they're a top Stanley Cup contender this season, already ranked No. 4 in the first NHL.com preseason Super 16 power rankings that came out last week. And it is not surprising in the least.

Let's be honest about the Panthers last season: It went south on Day 1 of training camp when Aleksander Barkov went down with a season-ending knee injury. Couple that with the exhaustion of three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final, back-to-back Stanley Cup championships, and more injuries that followed, and it made for an uphill climb that was simply too steep.

But the Panthers have new life this season, and new energy with Barkov back and Brady Tkachuk in the fold, joining brother Matthew Tkachuk. Sergei Bobrovsky is gone, but Jacob Markstrom is in, back in Florida, where his NHL career started, this time playing behind a team built to win.

That wasn't the case for Markstrom when he was in Florida in the early 2010s before getting traded to the Vancouver Canucks for Roberto Luongo on March 4, 2014.

The Panthers are going to make the playoffs this season barring a catastrophe. That means at least one of the five teams from the Atlantic Division that made it last season won't get in this season.

2. Washington Capitals

The Capitals had 95 points last season and still missed the playoffs by three points. For context, 95 points would have been enough to make the playoffs in each of the three previous seasons, including finishing third place in the Metropolitan Division in 2023-24 and 2024-25.

But last season the magic number was 98 points in the Metropolitan Division. Each team will play 84 games instead of 82 this season, and the Capitals are good enough to clear the 100-point plateau and get into the playoffs this season.

They're better with the additions of Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou and Boone Jenner up front, and a healthy Pierre-Luc Dubois primed to get back to the point producer he was two seasons ago, when he had 66 points (20 goals, 46 assists) and the Capitals had 111 to finish first in the Eastern Conference.

Washington will be arguably the most physically imposing team in the Metropolitan Division, especially with Ilya Protas (6-foot-6, 225 pounds) joining brother Aliaksei Protas (6-6, 250) in the forward group.

The Protas brothers, Tuch (6-4, 219), Tom Wilson (6-4, 225), Dubois (6-4, 220), Alex Ovechkin (6-3, 238), Jenner (6-2, 204), Ryan Leonard (6-1, 205) and Dylan Strome (6-4, 200) give the Capitals a lot of size up front.

Their back end is big too with Vincent Desharnais (6-7, 225) joining Jakob Chychrun (6-2, 215), Martin Fehervary (6-2, 215) and Matt Roy (6-2, 220).

The Capitals could challenge the Carolina Hurricanes for first place in the division. At minimum, they'll be above the playoff line when the season ends.

3. San Jose Sharks

It's not too soon for the Sharks, who should be able to end their seven-season playoff drought.

They won 39 games and had 86 points last season, improving by 19 wins and 34 points from 2024-25. It took 90 points to make the playoffs in the Western Conference last season. Even if that number goes up to 95 this season, the Sharks should be right in the mix.

Macklin Celebrini will try to build on his breakout second season, but even if he can't top the 45 goals and 70 assists he had last season, good for 115 points in 82 games, San Jose's other young stars, including Will Smith, Michael Misa and Collin Graf, should be able to pick up the slack and improve on what they did last season.

Maybe Ivar Stenberg, the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, will make an impact too.

The Sharks added size and experience to their defense group by bringing in Jacob Trouba, Darnell Nurse and Michael Kesselring to join Dmitry Orlov, another experienced defenseman and Stanley Cup winner, and 20-year-old Sam Dickinson on the blue line.

San Jose's big issue last season was keeping the puck out of the net (they allowed 3.54 goals per game, 30th in the League). That should not be the big issue this season, which could very well be the difference in the Sharks making the playoffs.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs

Sink or swim? That's how it feels this season could go for the Maple Leafs. It could go really well, or it could go off the rails and result in a second straight early start to the offseason.

If it goes well early in the season, the Maple Leafs have enough talent, goal scoring, just enough defense and now a two-time Cup-winning goalie to carry them through for 84 games to get back into the playoffs after missing last season for the first time since 2016.

Bobrovsky is arguably the most important addition. The 38-year-old goalie signed a three-year contract to bring stability to Toronto's crease. That's the expectation, but Bobrovsky is also coming off his worst NHL season.

If he gets back to being what he was for the Panthers before last season, all will be OK in Toronto. If he doesn't, oh boy, that's going to be a problem, and a huge story that won't go away.

Gavin McKenna looks the part of a budding NHL star, but the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft is under pressure to perform right away. He's doing all the right things, including living with John Tavares and taking guidance from both him and Auston Matthews, but how it goes could determine how the top-six forward group shakes out.

Darren Raddysh is the big addition on the back end, a defenseman coming off a breakout season with 70 points (22 goals, 48 assists) in 73 games with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He earned an eight-year contract, but he doesn't have Nikita Kucherov passing him the puck anymore, so can he deliver the big production in Toronto the way he did in Tampa Bay?

The Maple Leafs will be among the most fascinating teams to watch this season.

Sink or swim.

5. St. Louis Blues

The Blues missed by four points last season. They had 33 regulation wins to 22 for the Los Angeles Kings, but the Kings got in with their 20 losses coming after regulation for extra points.

St. Louis just needs to be a hair better this season to get in. It's possible with better special teams.

The Blues were 26th on the power play (17.6 percent) and 25th on the penalty kill (76.7 percent) last season. They had a minus-12 goal differential on special teams. Getting even or on the plus side will help them stay above the playoff line this season.

The hope is that Mason McTavish and Connor McMichael, forwards who were acquired in separate trades, will help boost the offense, including the power play. The Blues had to rely too heavily on Robert Thomas, Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud for offense last season. Thomas' 25 goals led the team.

McTavish, 23, had 41 points (17 goals, 24 assists) in 75 games with the Ducks last season. McMichael had 46 points (14 goals, 32 assists) in 78 games with the Capitals last season.

Brandon Carlo (6-foot-5, 227 pounds) brings more size to the back end, and likely to the penalty kill too. Maybe he helps in that department.

6. New Jersey Devils

It makes sense if you see the Devils on this list and think to yourself, "But how can they make the playoffs with their goaltending?"

Fair question with Jake Allen, Nico Daws and David Rittich the three top options for coach Sheldon Keefe. But, if the Devils goaltending becomes a net positive, well, then it could be clear sailing into the playoffs because the rest of the team has a high ceiling.

New Jersey is loaded up front with Anthony Mantha, Luke Evangelista and Evan Rodrigues bringing versatility to a returning group featuring Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer and Connor Brown.

The Devils have size, speed and skill on the back end. Luke Hughes could have a breakout year in his fourth NHL season. He went backward last season. Sometimes you take a step back to learn how to take two forward. Or so they say.

They need Brett Pesce to stay healthy and Dougie Hamilton to be more impactful than he was last season. But the blue line has a lot of potential.

Again, though, it comes down to goaltending, to keeping the puck out of the net, because the Devils should be able to score.