It was difficult to imagine Dubnyk's name on a list of the League's top five goalies at this point two years ago, when he was about to change teams for the fourth time in the span of a year, from Jan. 15, 2014 to Jan. 15, 2015.
Despite his disappointing .891 save percentage in 2013-14, the underlying numbers foreshadowed Dubnyk's imminent turnaround. At the time, his .873 three-year save percentage on shots exclusively taken in front of the net ranked eighth of the 64 goalies to face at least 1,000 shots, which is a great predictor of future success (source; Hockey Abstract 2014).
Dubnyk didn't have to wait long for that success, finishing third in voting for the Vezina Trophy and fourth for the Hart Trophy in 2014-15.
Despite those achievements, 2016 may have been his greatest year. Among those to play at least 30 regular-season games, Dubnyk ranks first with a .930 save percentage and a 2.02 GAA. His six shutouts are tied for the lead with Talbot, behind whom he ranks second with 1,770 shots faced and 1,646 saves.
Given that he leads the NHL with a .948 save percentage, a 1.55 GAA and five shutouts this season, Dubnyk's success should continue into 2017 and beyond.