Series Preview - Winnipeg Jets vs Vegas Golden Knights

Not many fans around Winnipeg need a reminder of the 2018 Western Conference Final between the Winnipeg Jets and the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Jets won Game 1 on home ice, but couldn't find another victory in the series, ultimately falling in five games.
In total, there are 14 players on the two rosters that remain from that series - although Nate Schmidt has switched allegiances from Vegas to Winnipeg in the time since. On Winnipeg's side, that list includes Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor, Adam Lowry, and Connor Hellebuyck. For Vegas, it's Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore, and William Carrier.
The storylines are endless, but the Jets are hoping that the 2023 version of the story has a much different ending than in 2018.

Winnipeg spent the first half of the 2022-23 campaign battling for top spot in the Western Conference, but a challenging final two months brought them into a race for the final wildcard spot.

They used a 5-1-0 run from March 31 - April 11 to clinch that wildcard spot. In that span, the Jets outscored their opposition 24-9, and played a style of game that can win in the postseason.
"We're playing with a freedom," Morrissey said at the end of a five-game home stand. "We're playing aggressive and confident and on our toes, and that's what makes us a great hockey team."
As for Vegas, they spent the season as one of the league's best road teams at 26-7-8 (those 60 points were tied for the second most in the NHL with New Jersey, behind Boston's 64). Even with that, and their 25-15-1 record at home, the Golden Knights still needed to go 6-1-3 in their last 10 to hold off the charging Edmonton Oilers for top spot in the West.
A 3-1 victory over Seattle in Vegas' 82nd game of the season set up the rematch with the Jets.
"I think we have a lot of belief in this group and in our ability when we play up to our capabilities. I think we think we can beat any team in this league," said Adam Lowry. "We think with the makeup of our roster, with the depth, with the guys we've got on the back-end, with Helly in net, we like our chances against whoever we play."
THE MATCH-UP
This season, Vegas won all three regular season meetings against the Jets, with the entire season series completed by December 13.
The first came with the Jets on the back half of back-to-back games on October 20. After beating Colorado in overtime the night before, the Jets gave up four goals in the opening period and lost 5-2.
Ten nights later - with Winnipeg playing their third game in four nights, Hellebuyck made 46 saves, but the Jets fell in overtime at T-Mobile Arena.

Just over two months from that game, Vegas outlasted Winnipeg in a 6-5 offensive showcase with the Golden Knights scoring three times in the third period.
But that's it. Since then, the two teams haven't seen each other. It almost gives off vibes of 2019, when the Jets hadn't seen their opponent - the St. Louis Blues - for months by the time the playoffs hit.
"Their team's changed, our team's changed, so it'll be exciting to play against them," said Mark Scheifele, who had three goals in three games against Vegas this season. "Obviously, they're a fantastic hockey team and we've got to be ready for everything. We've just got to play our game and do what we do best."
Since that time, the Jets have added Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov, while Vegas made an addition of Jonathan Quick between the pipes and Ivan Barbashev up front.
Since coming to Winnipeg, Niederreiter has six goals and 13 points in 22 games, while Namestnikov has 10 points in 20 games.
"They've both really fit in and it seems like we've found our groove a little bit the last little bit," said Scheifele. "So they've both been huge pick-ups. They're both tremendous guys, you know, guys that work hard every day, and they're true pros. Having guys like that in the room is obviously a huge bonus."

Nikolaj Ehlers also didn't play in any of the three games against Vegas due to sports hernia surgery after the second game of the season. His status for Game One is still up in the air officially, as head coach Rick Bowness has him listed as day-to-day following a hit from Minnesota's Ryan Hartman on Tuesday.
Ehlers feels ready to go though, and feels the Jets have been building toward being at their best in the postseason.
"You try to improve your game as a team and you do that throughout the course of the season. I think we have been able to do that," he said. "The end of the regular season there, we battled hard and played most of the games the right way. We were rewarded for that. We are ready to go. We know what we need to do to win some games."

EVEN STRENGTH
Winnipeg finished just outside the league's top-10 when it came to five-on-five shot attempt percentage this season (they were 11th at 51.6 percent), while Vegas sat 22nd at just above 48 percent.
While that stat is accumulated through an entire 82-game schedule, Winnipeg's work in that department since March 31 has no doubt helped their standing by a few percentage points.
Since that date - which was when Bowness made his final line-up switch of the season, putting Mark Scheifele with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kyle Connor - Winnipeg's top three lines have been more than a challenge for the opposition.
They've been a handful.
Take that Scheifele line, for example. They've had over 55 percent of the shot attempts at even strength, a positive expected goal differential, and have outscored their opponents 7-3.
"We both read off each other really well," Scheifele said of Dubois and Connor. "Playing with two guys like that it's a group effort every time, but I think we've supported each other really well and we're going to have to do more of that against Vegas."

The numbers continue to be impressive, no matter which line you pick. Namestnikov, Ehlers, and Wheeler have a 75 percent share of the shot attempts against their opposition, while the trio of Niederreiter, Lowry, and Mason Appleton routinely play against the opposition's best at five-on-five.
And they've outscored them 6-1.
But who will they go up against? Vegas, like Winnipeg, spreads their offence through the line-up.
The top line has Jack Eichel with Jonathan Marchessault and Pavel Dorofeyev, while another line has William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, and Mike Amadio.
Chandler Stephenson, who had five points in three games against Winnipeg, centres the third line between Barbashev and Phil Kessel.

So, depending on who has last change, Lowry could see a number of opponents. But if it's Eichel, he knows everyone on the ice will have to be at their best.
"He's pretty darn good at a lot of things," Lowry said. "Sometimes the inexperience is a good thing, you don't know any better. But sometimes it makes the moment and puts a little extra pressure on you, so you don't know what to expect. I think just defending a guy like Jack, you've got to take away his time and space. You've got to get a piece of him every time you can, just try to wear him down over the course of seven games."
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kyle Connor knows the role special teams play in a best-of-seven.
"I think special teams plays a huge role," he said. "I think the penalties are way down in the playoffs, so I'm sure they're going to let us play. But with that being said, when you do get the opportunity you've got to make an impact. As a power play, we've got to be able to score that big goal. We may go 0-for-3 in the first two periods, but it's all those timely goals."
Of the 21 goals scored in the season series, only three came on special teams.

All told, the Jets went 1-for-4 on the power play against Vegas, while killing of 7-of-9 Vegas power play attempts.
The penalty kill has been a strength all season for the Jets, and has hovered around the league's top five before ultimately finishing seventh at 82.4 percent. Vegas is 19th in that category at 77.4 percent.
"We take a lot of pride in it. For a lot of guys that's kind of our money maker," said Dylan DeMelo of the PK. "We like the challenge back there, us four guys. It's a challenge every time, every power play unit across this league is really good. We did a great job in the regular season of killing a lot of penalties and our goaltending was great. Guys sacrificed, won draws, did all the little things. We're going to need that and more in the playoffs."
As for the power play, both teams are within one percent of each other. Vegas finished just ahead (18th in the NHL at 20.3 percent) of Winnipeg (23rd, 19.3 percent), but the Jets power play was a big part of the surge toward a wildcard spot in the final weeks of the season.

From the start of a five-game home stand through to when the spot was clinched, the Jets were 4-for-19. They'd like to keep getting that number up, and that's why it was worked on in Sunday's practice.
"Especially now during this time, PK and power play are going to be everything," said Niederreiter. "You've got to make sure you win those special teams. It's good that we got it clicking towards the end, here, and we go definitely with a lot of confidence to the series."
GOALTENDING
Connor Hellebuyck's performance to not only clinch a playoff spot for the Jets against the Minnesota Wild in game 81, but to also help put the Jets in the position to do so, was special to witness. From March 31 through the win over Minnesota, Hellebuyck's 0.949 save percentage was third among goaltenders who played at least four games in that stretch.
"I was definitely playing the best hockey of my career," Hellebuyck said. "Playoffs, it just brings out a new level of adrenaline. Details are so important. Mess-ups are amplified. I am very confident in myself."
The Michigan product is also one of the six members of the Jets that played for Winnipeg during the 2018 Western Conference Final against Vegas. Since that series, Hellebuyck is 5-1-1 against the Golden Knights, including a 46-save performance on October 30 that helped the Jets earn a point at T-Mobile Arena.
His 64 starts this season were the most in the National Hockey League, while no Vegas goaltender had more than Logan Thompson's 37.
"The best part I would say from that is my body has now adapted to being able to play a lot of games in a row," said Hellebuyck. "We have such a good organization and staff here that really manages it well. I mean, I know exactly what my day-to-day is going to be for the next two months. I am very prepared."

Hellebuyck's overall performance should be trophy worthy, in the words of Lowry.
"You look at the amount of games he's played, I think he deserves consideration for the Hart," Lowry said. "Obviously Connor McDavid is going to run away with that one, but I think what Helly means to our team, he definitely should be in that conversation. He should be in the conversation for the Vezina. Any time you have one of the best goalies in the world you have a chance to win every night."
David Rittich had one start against Vegas this season, back on October 20, where he made 31 saves on 35 shots, a game that was the second half of a back-to-back.
Vegas used a total of four netminders this season: Thompson, Adin Hill, Laurent Brossoit, and Jonathan Quick.
Quick, who has won two Stanley Cup championships with the Los Angeles Kings, was acquired by the Golden Knights at the trade deadline, and went 5-2-2 in nine starts with a 0.901 save percentage.
Brossoit posted a sparkling 7-0-3 record in his 10 starts this season. He had hip surgery in the summer and spent most of the 2022-23 campaign with Henderson of the American Hockey League. He returned on February 21, started three games, then missed another month with a lower-body injury. In 11 NHL appearances, he has a 0.927 save percentage.
He's also a familiar face to members of the Jets. He played in Winnipeg for three seasons between 2018 and 2021.
"I know he is feeling good about his game and we are going to have to bring our game," Hellebuyck said of Brossoit. "It's going to be fun. I'm close with LB. He's still a good friend of mine. I know we're going to talk about this for many years. I'm going to enjoy myself."