A look at the Canadiens’ odds at the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery

MONTREAL – For the past three years, the Canadiens have been going into the NHL Draft Lottery with the hopes of snagging the first-overall pick.

The annual event is set for Monday, May 5 at 7:00 p.m., but things look a little different this year for the Habs.

For context, the Canadiens won the lottery in 2022 and made forward Juraj Slafkovsky the No. 1 selection at the draft in Montreal that summer. Although Lady Luck didn’t grace the team with the top pick in 2023 or 2024, the Habs still clinched the fifth overall picks in both of those years, helping them nab defenseman David Reinbacher and forward Ivan Demidov, respectively, in those drafts.

Fast-forward to 2025: With Montreal competing in the postseason dance, the Club’s own first-round pick became ineligible for the draft lottery since only non-playoff teams can participate.

Enter the Calgary Flames.

The Western Conference squad, which barely missed the playoffs this year, had traded away their 2025 first-round pick to the Canadiens in the Sean Monahan deal in 2022... with some conditions.

Before we get into it, here are a few reminders about how the draft lottery works:

• There are two back-to-back draws, and the odds reset for the remaining teams heading into the second draw.
• Winning the lottery doesn’t necessarily mean obtaining the first-overall pick. Rather, any team that wins the lottery can move up 10 positions. Therefore, clubs ranked first to 11th are the only ones eligible for the top spot.

Let's take a look at the odds all 16 teams hold to win the first of two draws:

Source: NHL.com

As you can see, the Flames/Canadiens have a mere 0.5% chance of winning the first lottery (i.e. jumping from 16 to six).

Believe it or not, that’s actually a good thing for Montreal.

Going back to the Monahan trade, the Flames attached certain conditions to the first-rounder they included in the deal. Some of those terms include the following:

• If Calgary's pick becomes a top 10 pick because of the lottery, the Flames will transfer the Florida Panthers’ first-round pick (previously acquired by Calgary in the Jonathan Huberdeau-Matthew Tkachuk trade) to Montreal and draft sixth overall.
• If Calgary's pick is not a top 10 pick following the lottery, Calgary will transfer that pick to Montreal, meaning the Canadiens would draft 16th overall.

Given how slim the odds are that Calgary leapfrogs into the top 10, chances are the Habs will receive Calgary’s pick at 16.

Habs brass also have their own first-round pick at 17. In total, Montreal has 12 picks in the upcoming 2025 Upper Deck NHL Draft. The event will take place in Los Angeles, CA, at L.A. Live’s Peacock Theater on June 27-28.