Canadiens vs. Lightning Eastern 1st Round preview

The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs features 16 teams in eight best-of-7 series, which start Saturday. Today, NHL.com previews the Eastern Conference First Round between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens.

(3A) Montreal Canadiens vs. (2A) Tampa Bay Lightning

Canadiens: 48-24-10, 106 points

Lightning: 50-26-6, 106 points

Season series: MTL: 2-1-1; TBL: 2-2-0

Game 1: Sunday at Tampa Bay (time TBD)

There isn’t much that separates these two Atlantic Division teams, which didn’t have their playoff positioning decided until the penultimate game of the season. 

The Lightning finished as the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic Division and have home-ice advantage in the best-of-7 series, which starts at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday, by virtue of the regulation wins tiebreaker (40-34). The Canadiens finished as the No. 3 seed following a 4-2 loss at the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday.

Each team had 106 points this season, each staked a claim to first place in the division at different times before the Buffalo Sabres nipped them at the line. Each has game-breaking players.   

And each is intimately familiar with the other. 

After all, the two teams met twice since March 31. Montreal won each of those games by a combined score of 6-2.  

“I don’t think anyone is hiding anything from each other,” Tampa Bay coach John Cooper said. “We just have to get our game in order. That’s it.”

The Canadiens aren’t living off those recent glories either, especially because they lost the two earlier games in the season series by a combined score of 10-5. But they also know there are lessons to be learned there.

“It’s good for us to go back and look over some of that,” Montreal forward Alex Newhook said. “Games that meant a lot and with the potential of knowing we could play them down the stretch. We know what to expect. We know we are a good team, and we have to do what makes us successful in order to win this series.”

The Canadiens went 2-1-1 against the Lightning this season, with forward Juraj Slafkovsky leading the way with seven points (four goals, three assists) in those four games. Goalie Jakub Dobes went 2-1-0 with a 2.15 goals-against average and .928 save percentage in three starts.

Tampa Bay went 2-2-0 against Montreal. Forward Nikita Kucherov was the leading scorer with five points (three goals, two assists) in those four games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy was 0-2-0 with a 2.07 GAA and .905 save percentage, and Jonas Johansson was 2-0-0 with a 2.40 GAA and .919 save percentage.

But this is a new equation, one the Lightning have solved more than the Canadiens in recent memory.

The two teams have faced each other four times in the playoffs, most recently in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, which Tampa Bay won in five games. 

But, Montreal has only been to the playoffs once in the past four seasons, a first-round loss to the Washington Capitals last season. 

The Lightning have reached the playoffs nine straight seasons, losing to the Florida Panthers in the first round in each of the past two seasons. But before that, they won the Stanley Cup twice, in 2020 and 2021, reached another Final in 2022 and an Eastern Conference Final in 2018.  

“Every year, whether you win or not, regardless of how far you go, you learn a little bit,” Cooper said. “Hopefully we are a bit wiser than we were last year.” 

Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis, who won the Cup as a player with the Lightning in 2004, knows the challenge his team faces is stiff, but it is one they must overcome to go on a long run. 

“Whenever you are a young team and you are trying to win your first playoff series, I usually feel that takes you to the next level,” St. Louis said. “We are going to have to do it against a very good, experienced Tampa team. What a great opportunity that is.” 

The Lightning have been led once again by Kucherov, who had 130 points (44 goals, 86 assists) in 76 games, the second-highest season point total in his 12-year NHL career (144 points; 44 goals, 100 assists in 2023-24). Forwad Jake Guentzel is second with an NHL career-high 88 points (38 goals, 50 assists) in 81 games, forward Brandon Hagel is third with 74 points (36 goals, 38 assists) in 71 games, and defenseman Darren Raddysh is fourth with an NHL career-high 70 points (22 goals, 48 assists) in 73 games.

Vasilevskiy is 39-15-4 with a 2.31 GAA, .912 save percentage and two shutouts in 58 games (all starts) this season. He leads the NHL in wins and among goaltenders who have played at least 25 games, he ranks second in GAA and is tied for third in save percentage.

Montreal was led this season by captain Nick Suzuki, who had an NHL career-high 101 points (29 goals, 72 assists) in 82 games. He is the fifth player in the franchise's storied history with at least 100 points in a season.

Forward Cole Caufield was second on the team with 88 points, including a career-high 51 goals. He is the seventh player in Canadiens history to score at least 50 goals in a season, and the first since Stephane Richer had 51 in 1989-90. Lane Hutson, meanwhile, had 78 points (12 goals, 66 assists), and his assists total tied Larry Robinson for the most in a season by a Montreal defenseman.

Dobes was 29-10-4 with a 2.78 GAA and .901 save percentage in 43 games (42 starts) and Jacob Fowler was 9-6-2 with a 2.43 GAA, .908 save percentage and one shutout in 17 starts.

St. Louis has a quiet confidence heading into the series, even if he can’t put his finger on why.

“Our season, our process, the quality of people we have, the quality of players,” he said. “We are able to adjust and adapt and I feel there is not one style of game we can’t play. I don’t know. Let’s go!”

Game breakers

Canadiens: Caufield scored goals at a rate that hasn't been seen in Montreal since Richer 36 seasons ago. His line with Suzuki and Slafkovsky (73 points; 30 goals, 43 assists) has been prolific this season, but it's Caufield who has been the beneficiary, due in part to his timely positioning and huge shot. The 25-year-old ranks second in the NHL with 40 even-strength goals and led his team in shooting percentage (19.8 percent; minimum 45 games played).

Lightning: There is no player in the NHL more dangerous than Kucherov, not even  Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid, who has the most points in the League (134), nor Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon, who has the most goals (53). Kucherov has 44 goals and 130 points despite less games and less time on ice per game than either of them. He also has 12 more even-strength points than McDavid. Simply, Kucherov is a menace, no matter the opponent. In back-to-back runs to the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021, Kucherov had 66 points (15 goals, 51 assists) in 48 postseason games.

Goaltending

Canadiens: Dobes has exuded a lot of confidence down the stretch, going 8-3-0 with a 2.25 GAA and .927 save percentage in his last 11 regular-season games (all starts). The 24-year-old rookie is the likely starter but needs to prove he can show consistency in a playoff environment. Fowler, 21, has also played well as the backup, going 4-1-0 with a 1.81 GAA and .926 save percentage in his last five games (all starts). 

Lightning: The advantage here is hard to quantify. Let’s start with this season. Vasilevskiy has 39 wins. Montreal’s likely tandem of Dobes (29) and Fowler (nine) has one less. Vasilevskiy played to a .912 save percentage, a mark bettered by only two goalies who appeared in more than 30 games. Now, let’s go to experience. Vasilevskiy has won the Stanley Cup twice and played in the Final three times. He has 120 Stanley Cup Playoffs games under his belt, playing to a .918 save percentage. Montreal’s goalies have combined for six career NHL playoff games, winning two.

Numbers to know

Canadiens: Montreal averaged the seventh-most goals per game in the League (3.40) and rookie forwards Ivan Demidov (62 points; 19 goals, 43 assists) and Oliver Kapanen (37 points; 22 goals, 15 assists) played a big part. Demidov and Kapanen rank fifth and seventh, respectively, in scoring for the Canadiens.

Lightning: Tampa Bay has dressed 33 skaters this season, a testament to the struggles that plagued them throughout the season. They only had five skaters appear in at least 75 regular-season games. More telling, it dressed 12 defensemen this season. Though that was a hardship during the season, the experience gaind could be a big advantage during the postseason. Their reserves are deep and those players know what is expected of them.

They said it

Canadiens: "They are a really good team, and more than that, they’re a team that sees themselves as a really good team. They're not going out on the ice saying, 'Well, you know what, let’s hope we win, let's try to survive the period, let's weather the storm.' They go out there with the idea that 'We got a chance to win because we're good enough and we're good enough to beat anybody anywhere.' They have shown that. They've shown that in the last number of weeks, that five-game winning streak on the road (March 28-April 4), that 'Hey we need to be taken seriously' and if anybody's not taking them seriously, do it at your peril because they're a team that should be reckoned with." -- TSN analyst Craig Button

Lightning: "It's going to be awesome. Any time you're in the playoffs here in Tampa, it's an unbelievable atmosphere. Then you put a series together against an original six team like Montreal and their fan base and that crew ... it's unbelievable. We got a little taste of it a couple of weeks ago and it's easy to get up for those games with an atmosphere like that." -- Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh

Will win if …

Canadiens: They play with pace and adhere to a disciplined, structured defense that clogs the middle of the ice to take away Tampa Bay's east-west puck movement that fuels its elite scorers. Montreal must also get strong, consistent goaltending and turn rebounds into quick counterattacks, while capitalizing on special teams. Sustained physical pressure and depth scoring are essential to wear down a veteran Lightning lineup over a long series.

Lightning: They can get a lead and preferably take it into the second intermission. Tampa Bay led 34 games after two periods during the regular season and went 33-1-0. But even a first-period lead for the Lightning was a tough hill to climb; Tampa Bay was 24-5-1 in those instances. Playing with the lead will allow the Lightning to rely on its experience and will take the road crowd out of the game, always on the to-do list at Bell Centre.

How they look

Canadiens projected lineup

Cole Caufield -- Nick Suzuki -- Juraj Slafkovsky

Alexandre Texier -- Oliver Kapanen -- Ivan Demidov

Alex Newhook -- Phillip Danault -- Kirby Dach

Zachary Bolduc -- Jake Evans -- Josh Anderson

Mike Matheson -- Kaiden Guhle

Jayden Struble -- Lane Hutson

Arber Xhekaj -- David Reinbacher

Jakub Dobes

Jacob Fowler

Scratched: Samuel Montembeault, Joe Veleno, Brendan Gallagher, Adam Engstrom

Injured: Noah Dobson (upper body), Patrik Laine (lower body), Alexandre Carrier (upper body)

Lightning projected lineup

Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Nikita Kucherov

Jake Guentzel -- Brayden Point -- Gage Goncalves

Zemgus Girgensons -- Yanni Gourde -- Nick Paul

Corey Perry -- Conor Geekie -- Oliver Bjorkstrand

J.J. Moser -- Darren Raddysh

Ryan McDonagh -- Erik Cernak

Charle Edouard D'Astous -- Emil Lilleberg

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Scratched: Scott Sabourin, Declan Carlile, Victor Hedman, Max Crozier

Injured: Pontus Holmberg (upper body), Dominic James (lower body)

NHL.com Senior Director of Editorial Shawn P. Roarke and NHL.com senior draft writer Mike G. Morreale contributed to this report