NHL EDGE stats: MacKinnon's case for Conn Smythe Trophy in 2026

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide the underlying metrics behind Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche.

Nathan MacKinnon has carried over his dominance from the regular season to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the Colorado Avalanche, and his elite advanced metrics have made him the front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

MacKinnon scored the game-tying goal late in the third period of Game 5 against the Minnesota Wild in their eventual 4-3 overtime win to advance to the Western Conference Final. MacKinnon has now scored 14 goals in his past 16 playoff games and has a six-game goal streak this postseason (one away from tying Avalanche's playoff record of seven); he has 12 points (seven goals, five assists) over that six-game span.

Per NHL EDGE IQ, "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) estimates the likelihood of an inferenced shot attempt becoming a goal based on the goalie's positioning, puck movement and traffic at the time of release. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts. MacKinnon's game-tying goal, which came from the left net-side region of the offensive zone and snuck into a narrow space between goalie Jesper Wallstedt and the crossbar, had a PGR of only 2.27 percent, making it an extremely low-probability shot attempt.

The 30-year-old ranks fifth in NHL history in career playoff points per game (1.33; minimum 50 games played) behind Wayne Gretzky (1.84), Mario Lemieux (1.61), Connor McDavid (1.53) and Leon Draisaitl (1.48). Among the 432 players in NHL history who have played at least 100 career playoff games, MacKinnon ranks fourth in goals per game (0.60) behind Lemieux (0.71), Mike Bossy (0.66) and Maurice Richard (0.62) and slightly ahead of Gretzky (0.59).

Colorado, which is 8-1 this postseason, is back in the Western Conference Final for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022. The Avalanche await the winner of the series between the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks.

This regular season, MacKinnon won the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy as the NHL's goal leader (53) and he won the Hart Trophy for most valuable player during the 2023-24 regular season. MacKinnon also led the NHL in even-strength goals (42), even-strength points (97) and shots on goal (350) this regular season and had the most even-strength points in a single season since Jaromir Jagr in 1995-96 (95).

Since 2020-21, MacKinnon ranks second in the entire NHL in points (647 in 425 games) behind McDavid (751 in 443 games). Considering MacKinnon's elite teammate, defenseman Cale Makar, won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2022, the stage could be set for MacKinnon to claim the award if Colorado wins another championship. Makar has five points (four goals, one assist) in nine games this postseason.

Here are three underlying reasons MacKinnon remains the top Conn Smythe contender:

1. Skating speed

This postseason, MacKinnon leads the entire NHL in 20-plus mph speed bursts (65) and 22-plus mph bursts (10). In the Avalanche's series-clinching Game 5 win against the Wild, MacKinnon surpassed frequent linemate Martin Necas for the most 20-plus mph speed bursts in a single game this postseason (14; Necas had 13 in Game 1 against Minnesota).

In Game 5 against the Wild, MacKinnon also had the game's max skating speed (22.59 mph) and hardest shot (87.13 mph), with both marks coming in the first period. This regular season, MacKinnon ranked second in 20-plus mph speed bursts (455) behind McDavid (681).

MacKinnon has been thriving on a line with Necas, who was acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes in the Mikko Rantanen trade last season. Necas had a career-high 38 goals and 100 points in 78 regular-season games with the Avalanche this regular season. Another skating speed standout, Necas is tied for third in 22-plus mph speed bursts (six) this postseason and ranks fourth in 20-plus bursts during the playoffs (50).

The Avalanche, as a team, have the most 22-plus mph speed bursts (28) this postseason and rank second in 20-plus mph bursts (287). Beyond MacKinnon, Colorado has four players in the top 10 in max skating speed this postseason with Makar (23.92; first), Valeri Nichushkin (23.66; second), Necas and Brock Nelson (23.25 each; tied for eighth).

2. Midrange prowess

MacKinnon is tied for the NHL lead in midrange goals (three) this postseason and is tied for seventh in midrange shots on goal (11). This regular season, MacKinnon ranked second in both midrange goals (20) and midrange shots on goal (149) behind San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini (25 midrange goals; 159 midrange shots on goal).

The Avalanche, as a team, lead the NHL in midrange goals (14) this postseason and are second in midrange shots on goal (88). Makar is tied for second among defensemen in midrange goals (two) this postseason behind Bowen Byram of the Buffalo Sabres (three).

During the regular season, MacKinnon was among the top forwards in all three major shot locations: 99th percentile in midrange shots on goal, 98th percentile in long-range shots on goal (32) and 96th percentile in high-danger shots on goal (83), showing how dangerous he is from all over the ice.

3. Supporting cast

In addition to MacKinnon's chemistry with Makar and Necas, he also frequently sees ice time with Gabriel Landeskog in various situations. Landeskog, who returned from a long-term knee injury during the 2025 playoffs and played 60 games this regular season, has scored two high-danger goals this postseason and also a long-range goal (tied for third).

MacKinnon also sees time with Artturi Lehkonen, who is currently injured and missed the final two games of the Minnesota series. Lehkonen was in the 95th percentile among forwards in high-danger shots on goal (80) and 87th percentile in high-danger goals (14) this regular season and ranks in the 73rd percentile in high-danger shots on goal this postseason (six). 

Another key component of MacKinnon's supporting cast is forward Nazem Kadri, who was acquired from the Calgary Flames prior to the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline. Kadri and MacKinnon are first power-play linemates for Colorado, which has scored in five of the past six games. The Kadri addition has helped the power play for the Avalanche, who are fourth in power-play conversion percentage (25.0) this postseason after ranking 27th in the regular season (17.1).

Kadri ranks in the 94th percentile among forwards in midrange shots on goal (11) this postseason and is also in the 83rd percentile in offensive zone time percentage (46.1). Kadri, like MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog and others, was a part of the Avalanche's 2022 championship team.