NHL EDGE stats: Jarry trade could spark Oilers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we compare the underlying metrics of goalies Tristan Jarry and Stuart Skinner after the trade between the Edmonton Oilers and Pittsburgh Penguins.

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The Edmonton Oilers acquired veteran goalie Tristan Jarry from the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday, and advanced metrics suggest he could provide them with a spark in the Western Conference standings.

The Oilers, who have lost to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final each of the past two seasons, traded goalie Stuart Skinner to Pittsburgh as part of the deal. Led by elite forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton has been longing for stronger goaltending in recent quests for its first championship since 1990.

Prior to the trade, Edmonton was tied for the second-worst team save percentage (.873) this season with the tandem of Skinner and Calvin Pickard, clinging to wild-card position in the Western Conference. Pittsburgh, led by prolific veteran Sidney Crosby and his resurgent supporting cast, has been one of the biggest surprises in the NHL two months into the season and was also in playoff position prior to the trade. The Penguins were tied for seventh in team save percentage (.905) and tied for 11th in 5-on-5 save percentage (.910) with the trio of Jarry, rookies Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov prior to the trade.

Skinner has much more playoff experience than Jarry, but a change of scenery could benefit both goalies. Skinner is 26-22 with an .893 save percentage and four shutouts in 50 career postseason games, helping the Oilers go to the Western Conference Second Round or deeper in each of the past three seasons. Jarry, meanwhile, is 2-6 with an .891 save percentage in eight playoff games, and Pittsburgh didn’t advance past the first round during his tenure.

Here are three key underlying metrics that suggest Jarry could provide the Oilers with a goaltending spark:

1. High-danger save percentage

Jarry was already in the midst of a bounce-back performance (9-3-1, .909 save percentage in 14 games this season) for the Penguins prior to the trade compared to last season (16-12-6, .893). Among the 38 goalies who have faced 100 or more high-danger shots prior to the trade, Jarry ranked eighth in high-danger save percentage (.848). Jarry also ranked highly in 5-on-5 save percentage in close situations (.939; 84th percentile), meaning when the game is tied in the first or second period or within one goal in the third, prior to the trade.

Skinner, meanwhile, had a .760 high-danger save percentage (33rd of the 38 goalies who have faced 100-plus high-danger shots) for the Oilers this season prior to the trade, ranking below the NHL average (.808), and Pickard has also struggled in high-danger save percentage (.667). But one encouraging sign is Edmonton was allowing the 10th fewest high-danger shots on goal (230) prior to the trade this season, so Jarry could significantly boost the Oilers’ most-glaring weakness.

2. Save percentage off the rush

Per NHL EDGE IQ, among goalies to play at least 10 games, Jarry ranked sixth in save percentage off the rush (.919), meaning on shots faced within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line, prior to the trade, and was better than Skinner in those situations (.866).

But, in terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage prior to the trade, the Oilers (​​50.0; 16th) ranked only slightly higher than the Penguins (49.8; 17th) this season after finishing third in that category last season (53.9; behind Carolina Hurricanes’ 58.4, Panthers’ 55.1). So the fact that the Oilers were last in 5-on-5 save percentage (.884) prior to the trade this season also suggests their defense, in addition to their goaltending, needs improvement.

3. Goal support

Both the Oilers and Penguins have provided their goalies with plenty of goal support this season. The Oilers ranked fifth in goals per game (3.32) prior to the trade, while the Penguins were tied for 11th (3.10); both teams were also near the top of the NHL in power-play percentage (Edmonton was second at 32.1; Pittsburgh was third at 31.2) prior to the trade.

The Oilers scored 67 goals with Skinner in net prior to the trade this season, tied for the fourth-highest goal support of any NHL goalie behind only Karel Vejmelka of the Utah Mammoth (77), Logan Thompson of the Washington Capitals (71) and Scott Wedgewood of the Colorado Avalanche (70). Jarry missed time because of injury this season but ranked seventh in the NHL in goals for per 60 minutes (3.55) prior to the trade (higher than Skinner’s 3.05).

Jarry also had a higher percentage of starts with better than a .900 save percentage (61.5) than Skinner (43.5) prior to the trade this season, so the move gives the Oilers renewed upside in the Pacific Division title race and, more importantly, improves their chances of getting back to the Stanley Cup Final.