Mailbag: Bedard’s 2024; strategy for Sabres, Wild, Blues

Here is the Jan. 3 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Top three things in the hockey world to look forward to in 2024? -- @theashcity

This is in addition to seeing if the Vegas Golden Knights can defend their Stanley Cup championship.

1. More from Connor Bedard

The Chicago Blackhawks’ rookie center is living up to the hype early in his NHL career the same way Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid did. He has 33 points (15 goals, 18 assists) in 37 games, leading the Blackhawks and all NHL rookies in scoring. Chicago will continue to rebuild around Bedard, but he is a must-watch talent in the League and, barring injury, he'll only build on his megabrand in 2024.

2. Is this the end of an era for the Tampa Bay Lightning?

The Lightning are not a lock to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs, as they have done for six straight seasons and nine of 10 full seasons under coach Jon Cooper. If they miss the playoffs, that could that mean changes will be in order. Steven Stamkos, Mr. Lightning, the team's all-time leader in goals (531), points (1,094) and games played (1,039), is a pending unrestricted free agent. There are a lot of questions, and the Lightning will be a fascinating watch in 2024.

3. The future of NHL participation in international hockey

There won't be a best-on-best tournament in 2024, but there will be decisions made on when the next best-on-best tournaments will take place and if there will be an established international calendar to follow for years to come. There's talk of a mini-World Cup type of tournament to be held in 2025 with four nations competing, likely the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland. But will the NHL be participating in the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics? Will that start a calendar that every two years will feature a best-on-best competition alternating between the Olympics and World Cup? These answers should be coming in 2024, and they will shape the future of the NHL's role in international best-on-best tournaments.

Given how they've underachieved so far this season should the Buffalo Sabres start dismantling the team with trades, or would replacing Don Granato and the assistants be the first move instead? -- @MrEd315

No on all accounts. I was guilty of overestimating the Sabres this season, predicting they would make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It wasn't out of line because they should be better than they have been in the first half (15-19-4 through 38 games, 34 points, seventh in the Atlantic Division). They should be somewhere in the race for a playoff spot. They have underachieved by those standards. But the Sabres can't start dismantling the roster again and fire another coach because they haven't met expectations in the first half. They need stability to grow.

The Sabres are still a young team. They missed the playoffs last season by one point. They went 9-2-1 in their last 12 games to finish 42-33-7. It created expectations, but it was also a small of sample size, especially since it was a pressure-free situation given that they were far out of the mix through 70 games.

The Sabres entered this season without a proven goalie and with questions about their depth. They allowed 3.62 goals per game last season, ranking 26th in the NHL, and were 28th on the penalty kill at 73.0 percent. This season, they are at 77.8 percent on the PK (22nd in the NHL) and allowing 3.45 goals per game (25th), which is exactly what they were giving up through 38 games last season, when they were 20-16-2. It's a bigger problem because they're not scoring enough; they’re at 2.92 goals per game through 38 games this season after averaging 3.89 through that many games last season.

Tage Thompson, who scored 47 goals in 78 games last season, has 10 in 28 games. Alex Tuch has nine in 31 games after scoring 36 in 74 last season. Dylan Cozens scored 31 in 81 last season but has six in 36 this season. Victor Olofsson has four in 30 this season after finishing with 28 in 75 last season. It's a collective drop-off that has been exacerbated by injuries.

Let's see if the Sabres can turn this around in the second half, play a tighter game, help their goalies, generate some more offense and finish in the high-danger areas. If they can't, it could be a harsh offseason. If they can, they can play their way into the playoff race.

I can see two teams in the Central Division that seem to be in similar spots; Minnesota and St. Louis. Both want to contend but might need to accept a rebuild. Do you think one is closer to a rebuild than the other, or should both bite the bullet? -- @WeLoveNHLRefs

One isn't closer than the other, and neither the Minnesota Wild nor the St. Louis Blues need to bite the bullet with a full tear-it-down rebuild. It's not required to contend again, particularly when you have players in Minnesota in their 20s and each either in or entering his prime, like Kirill Kaprizov, 26; Matt Boldy, 22; Marco Rossi, 22; and Brock Faber, 21. St. Louis has much of the same with Robert Thomas, 24, Jordan Kyrou, 25, Pavel Buchnevich, 28, and Jake Neighbours, 21. What is required for the Wild and Blues is honesty about where they are this season and a realization that if they remain there much longer, they’ll need to start working ahead for next season. That could mean acquiring assets such as draft picks and/or prospects that can be used in offseason moves to fast-track a refurbishing of their rosters.

The Wild, though, are operating at a $14.74 million NHL salary cap deficit this season and next because of the dead money resulting from buying out the contracts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise. The relief comes after next season, when the dead cap money on those buyouts drops to about $1.6 million. They need a No. 1 center, but unless you draft and develop for that position, it's hard to acquire, especially in their cap situation. It wouldn't be prudent for the Wild to trade prospects and draft picks because they need those to refurbish. I don't think it matters where they are this season. If they climb in the standings and are in the mix, they should go with what they've got. If they opt for trades, they should acquire prospects and picks. They only have two picks in the first three rounds of the 2024 NHL Draft and five in the first three rounds of the next two drafts combined. Stockpiling picks as they await the cap space to open would be the way to go.

The Blues are different. They have five picks in the first three rounds and nine in total in the 2024 draft. How they operate will be determined in the next 20 or so games. Play well, gain in the standings, and maybe general manager Doug Armstrong rewards the team by being a buyer before the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline on March 8. That's where picks come in handy. Tread water, and they can hang on to them to use or peddle around before the draft to improve the roster for next season.

How much longer will the New Jersey Devils run with Vitek Vanecek? And Lindy Ruff? -- @Billdo2728

As much as people want to make this a goaltending and/or a coaching issue with the Devils, it's more a defensive issue that has bled into being a goaltending problem specific to Vanecek. The Devils do not defend the front of their net well, and Vanecek isn't eliminating mistakes enough. Look no further than the high-danger shots against the Devils allow and Vanecek's save percentage on those shots, with all statistics courtesy of NHL EDGE.

Vanecek has faced 172 high-danger shots. The NHL average is 110.

Vanecek has a .715 save percentage on high-danger shots. The NHL average is .800.

To paint this with a broad brush, the more high-danger shots and chances a team gives up, the worse it gets for the goalie. His trust in the defense erodes. He loses confidence. It's a cumulative negative effect and it's been happening in New Jersey. The Devils need to tighten up in front, limit the high-danger chances and shots, and give Vanecek a chance to regain confidence.

Ruff bought himself this full season as coach with how the team performed last season. Vanecek's tenure as the No. 1 is tenuous. If things don't improve, the Devils will be in the market for a goalie before the trade deadline. Who that will be remains to be seen. Would the Anaheim Ducks trade John Gibson? It depends on the asking price and what the Devils would be willing to pay, of course. But I'm not sure Gibson or any other goalie would make a big enough difference if the Devils don't improve their play in front.